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In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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November 5th, 2009 at 11:46 am
This turd would already be in the crapper if we here at 85 Broad hadn’t been squeezing the shorts all summer long.
- as a public service, of course.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33655956
Congratulations America, We’re All Landlords Now
“It says the lenders can’t and don’t want to sell these properties back on the open market because at current home values they’ll lose and lose big. By renting, they’re at least getting some income back and perhaps not taking additional writedowns on top of the initial writedowns when they get a sale price lower than expected. They also don’t have to deal with the trouble of getting the real estate agent and marketing the home, as well as upkeep.
But as landlords of thousands and thousands of properties, how exactly are they going to provide the maintenance that is required? How are they going to keep track of all these homes they own? ‘
..Yes, the authoress has raised a point that others have noted before her…if you sign over your home, you are no longer the owner, and if you lease you are no different than any other leaser…
…the roof starts leaking in the garage….somehow I don’t think the ex-owner is going to pony up for this…
…maybe this portends a bubble in the home repair/remodeling market…
November 5th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
The US operates, manages, and owns billions of acres, and has since its founding. We got to the top of the heap. We’re still there. Until we’re knocked off, assume your wrong about your bearishness.
November 5th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Venn:
I guess it is 5 o’clock somewhere…
November 5th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Lotta shorts in this ETF…
November 5th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Nice One David. I’m beginning to subscribe to your proposed possible next leg up to an ultimate high near 1200 for the S&P and $50 for the IYR.
This is where technical analysis shines. It allow you to place reasonable targets and triggers within an overall trend. Combined with a fundamental thesis and applied to longer term time frames you have a powerful investment strategy.
Like all strategies it will work until it doesn’t. But I think this one will be good for a fair bit longer because price movements are based on powerful emotional forces and until many people start using long term based automated trading systems designed to remove emotional bias it will be a good bet.
November 5th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Didn’t I see somewhere that UBS has a huge long position in IYR?
November 5th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Try applying your TA skills to the graph here entitled, “Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality for 122 U.S. Cities.” Already looks like this season will be very bad by recent standards. Note the sharp jump out of the normal cyclical trough.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
November 5th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
“Didn’t I see somewhere that UBS has a huge long position in IYR?”
Credit Suisse. There’s a reason for that – it has to do with ass covering but we can’t discuss this further.
November 5th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Thank you, Lloyd
November 5th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
@Transor
…looks like we had a false breakdown and then moved sharply higher. Right now we are sitting at trialgle resistance and may breakout strongly to the epidemic upside… I will post the link later for fun…
November 5th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
@ David S. Ahhhh A link to how many people will die this year because of the flu. That will be fun
Just kidding, I think it would interesting and it will be interesting how your prediction pans out…