In a way, it is similar to the stock market, and any market for that matter. That is why it is important to have access to good market timing signals to make educated decisions as to what to do.

Consider http://invetrics.com

Its daily DJIA index trading signal is up a respectable 68% for the year (as of November 1, 2009) and it is free of charge for individual investors.

you’re making too much sense my friend- stop what you’re doing- have a refreshing glass of Kool-Aid- and go out and buy something-

now that’s happiness

If they had shown any competence, they would have said there was a bubble in home construction while our infrastructure was falling apart. They would have also said that it did not make sense to grow cotton and other stuff in bad locations, to overbuild in the desert when the country is a net importer of energy…

In fact, the opposite was said: “Bubbles can not be burst”. By stating this, Greenspan himself was aknowledging that bankers had zero competencies when it came to allocating capital. If that is the case, bankers are mere commodites and should be paid accordingly. Not reaping millions.

I think its a few things, mainly lower prices. But lets start from when the action started in Late April/May or so.

1. Lower Prices – this market had a fast and furious move down after a frozen 7 months or so after Lehman and very few deals being done. Feb – March were the fear trades and best deals were signed then. For an example look at 490 WEA, Apt 9B, or any deal whose contract was signed in March or even early April

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/283224-coop-490-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

2. Delayed Seasonality – Our active season is usually around bonus season, late JAN – APRIL or so. May & June & July are usually transition months to a normally slower summer market. However, due to #1 above, our normally active season was delayed, in essence, due to the adjustment process yet to complete itself. This left pent up demand to come in once either two things occurred: lower prices + increased confidence in the asset. Prices seemed to bottom our early April for this first wave and confidence steadily rose, starting in mid April as a liquidity drive reflation trade sustained itself all the way up to today.

TODAY – there is a lack of quality product that is priced right as there are many ready, willing, & able buyers out there who will pull trigger for a solid product as long as its near where it should trade given the price point. Here is a breakdown of where I see trades happening given price point and the improvement in bids that has occurred as Armageddon was priced OUT of the marketplace and a reflation mentality increased confidence in re here:

IMPROVEMENT IN TRADES FROM EARLY 2009 (by price point)

HIGH END ($5M+) – bids improved from down 25%-40% from peak to down 25%-32% from peak
HIGH/MIDDLE ($2M – $5M) – bids improved from down 28%-33% from peak to down 23%-28% from peak
MID END ($1M – $2M) – bids improved from down 20%-30% from peak to down 18%-23% from peak
LOWER END (Under $1M) – bids improved from down 17%-25% from peak to down 13%-18% from peak

I can only estimate because Manhattan products vary so greatly that any one individual unit may be subject to distortions from the above noted ranges for a number of reasons: i.e., high carrying charges, undesirable layout, lack of view, building financially mismanaged, need a full reno, etc..

Products with superb sell side features that are priced right are moving fast, Id say within 4-6 weeks of original listing. CRE has taken a BIG hit, Multi-Family has taken a big hit, Mixed Use has taken a big hit….Office has taken a huge hit. Concessions everywhere for new office and rental leases. Residential coops and condos seem to be improving the quickest so far, imho. Likely due to lack of quality product out there priced right. When you hear bidding wars people think peak market, buy now or be priced out forever, the foreigners are back, ect..that is bullshit. Fact is, pricing right is the best strategy you can do in this market if you are a serious seller. Price at or below market, and create a sense of urgency, and let the market price the product – if its a quality product this will work especially well as all you need is 2 motivated buyers who want your property and are tired of looking at subpar products that don’t have the features that sell in this market.

My big fear from now is that sell side optimism is outpacing the improvement in bids, as an improvement built on a foundation of a reflation trade (i.e. all tradable markets), is a very shaky foundation that can fall to the ground at any point. That may lead to another disconnect and lower volume.

Gold standard? Why would I want a currency where money creation is limited by the discovery of new gold? Anyway, a gold standard has not stopped nations from printing away and creating inflation.

Somebody PLEASE funs us a new & improved system. We see it all the time with shampoo, can’t they focus on more important goods?!

You just stole my post…was waiting for a good thread for it.

As I posted just yesterday, “foreign governments that own trillions in US paper would have to be mad to stand for this…wouldn’t they just print their own money and buy dollars?”

China, by pegging to the dollar, does just that…all other governments will start to do so as well, ushering in the next stage of deflation…competitive devaluation.

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/chart-of-day-deflation-cycle.html

You came so close to the gem, but you overlooked it.

“All of austrian economics is complete bunk for exactly the same reason in the presence of a debt based money supply.”

The bunk is the debt based money supply. Our country hasn’t always produced more debt every year. In the past we used to pay this down. Now we don’t. THAT is what has changed, and if you don’t ever pay down debt, then Keynesian solutions are just your finger in the dike…