Comments on: Birth Death Model Outpaced By Business Failures http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Wed, 15 Feb 2012 00:33:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Transor Z http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236363 Transor Z Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:52:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236363 The corporate dissolution data I've seen suggests that dissolutions have been on the rise for 10 years but state data is also suspect. The corporate dissolution data I’ve seen suggests that dissolutions have been on the rise for 10 years but state data is also suspect.

]]> By: investorinpa http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236300 investorinpa Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:55:52 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236300 Barry & others... Do you think this is the reason why unemployment typically peaks after a recession is over? Bad data gathering means that the number of unemployed bumps up well after a recovery or stopping of a recession? It would seem to make sense that by the time the gubmint gets it right, the rally has started, no? Barry & others…

Do you think this is the reason why unemployment typically peaks after a recession is over? Bad data gathering means that the number of unemployed bumps up well after a recovery or stopping of a recession? It would seem to make sense that by the time the gubmint gets it right, the rally has started, no?

]]> By: Greg http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236283 Greg Sun, 22 Nov 2009 00:43:44 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236283 Business leaders extensively collect and sift “data” {..no matter how flawed} because they assume they can use it to manage their firms to better outcomes — but they can never even begin to accurately collect the required economic data… and have no chance of productively using whatever they do collect. Business leaders extensively collect and sift “data” {..no matter how flawed} because they assume they can use it to manage their firms to better outcomes — but they can never even begin to accurately collect the required economic data… and have no chance of productively using whatever they do collect.

]]> By: mcmalley http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236276 mcmalley Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:47:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236276 ... the collection and analysis of "current" national economic statistics has always been seriously flawed. But it can be no other way. It is impossible to do in a dynamic, complex economy-- much less rationally act on such data by Federal government agencies. Such knowledge in a social system of exchange & production is vastly dispersed among divergent, socially distant individuals. The bedrock economic principle of 'division of labor' in a large nation 'requires' a complex diffusion of economic knowledge, in a state of constant flux. The only proven means available for efficiently using this dispersed knowledge is a private market economy. Federal central economic planners extensively collect and sift "data" {..no matter how flawed} because they assume they can use it to manipulate the national economy to better outcomes -- but they can never even begin to accurately collect the required economic data... and have no chance of productively using whatever they do collect. … the collection and analysis of “current” national economic statistics has always been seriously flawed. But it can be no other way. It is impossible to do in a dynamic, complex economy– much less rationally act on such data by Federal government agencies.

Such knowledge in a social system of exchange & production is vastly dispersed among divergent, socially distant individuals. The bedrock economic principle of ‘division of labor’ in a large nation ‘requires’ a complex diffusion of economic knowledge, in a state of constant flux. The only proven means available for efficiently using this dispersed knowledge is a private market economy.

Federal central economic planners extensively collect and sift “data” {..no matter how flawed} because they assume they can use it to manipulate the national economy to better outcomes — but they can never even begin to accurately collect the required economic data… and have no chance of productively using whatever they do collect.

]]> By: easystreet http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236274 easystreet Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:11:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236274 I'm totally shocked that the gooberment can't get their shi* together. I wonder how much other data need revised. Any ideas? I’m totally shocked that the gooberment can’t get their shi* together. I wonder how much other data need revised. Any ideas?

]]> By: hue http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236266 hue Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:10:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236266 if people are unemployed and not captured in gov't statistics, then are they really unemployed? if people are unemployed and not captured in gov’t statistics, then are they really unemployed?

]]> By: davossherman@gmail.com http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236259 davossherman@gmail.com Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:42:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236259 Amazing, one guy (John Williams of Shadow Statistics) can run a small company that can put out an accurate unemployment number and our entire government can't. John even corrects CPI and the rest of the morose. If our government made instruments for airplanes the NTSB would be the biggest branch of the government. Amazing, one guy (John Williams of Shadow Statistics) can run a small company that can put out an accurate unemployment number and our entire government can’t. John even corrects CPI and the rest of the morose.

If our government made instruments for airplanes the NTSB would be the biggest branch of the government.

]]> By: Winston Munn http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236222 Winston Munn Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:42:26 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236222 The Birth/Death model sounds like a throwback to the Vietnam days and the Defense Department's use of the body count as a sign of progress in the war. The Birth/Death model sounds like a throwback to the Vietnam days and the Defense Department’s use of the body count as a sign of progress in the war.

]]> By: TulsaTime http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/birth-death-model-fails-to-keep-up-with-business-failures/comment-page-1/#comment-236221 TulsaTime Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:37:46 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=44257#comment-236221 Well, that's one reason the survey data can be useful, but we know they don't want to report that big ass number. Well, that’s one reason the survey data can be useful, but we know they don’t want to report that big ass number.

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