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Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Fall 8.9% Yearly

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 24th, 2009, 11:00AM

The latest Case Shiller Index is out, and it fell 8.9% year over year, but rose a modest 0.3% for the month. The Home Price Index improved in Q3 of 2009 — its 2nd consecutive quarterly increase. Prices declined 8.9% in the quarter versus Q3 2008.

Prior Quarterly falls were worse, with the index falling 14.7% Q2 ’09, and 19.0% in Q1. The month-to-month data improved, albeit slightly, for the 5th consecutive month.

Other data points worth noting:

• 10-City and 20-City Composites posted their fifth consecutive monthly increase with September’s report.

• Nationally, the Composite rose by 3.1% in both Q2 & Q3 2009.

• Average home prices in Q3 2009 are at similar levels to Q3 2003 — 6 years earlier;

• Los Angeles, New York and Washington values are 70-80% above their 2000 averages;

• Detroit is still at only 73% of its 2000 value;

• Prices in Las Vegas (the most depressed market) have declined for 37 consecutive months; Peak-to-trough, Vegas is down -55.4%.

The charts:

Case Shiller 9.09

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Case Shiller National 9.09

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Source:
Home Prices Show Sustained Improvement through the Third Quarter of 2009 (PDF)
Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, November 24, 2009

http://bit.ly/75169a

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Category: Markets, Real Estate.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Fall 8.9% Yearly”

  1. Adult Franklin411 Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 11:33 am

    I like how this graph makes a negative value look like an improvement. Also like how the nice smoothly steepening upward slope from 1997 on makes it all look so natural. It’s like we lopped off the tumor it’s all so neatly unwound.

    Not.

  2. Marcus Aurelius Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

    I’d like to know if the uptrend began with the government homebuyer incentives. If so, prepare for more and greater downside.

  3. The Curmudgeon Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 1:05 pm

    All this shows is the temporary efficacy of government-propogated delusions. The accounting (i.e., the monetary manipulations) will catch up to the wizards soon enough.

  4. CTB Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    These Case-Shiller numbers not not adjusted for inflation. An average of 3% yearly inflation level since the 1992 trough, is about 55%. That gives us an inflation adjusted trough at 116 points.

    That means we still have ~18% to fall in real terms. Given that the current rate of decline, I would extrapolate fair value of housing in ~2 years.

  5. michaeld Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    The only way out of this mess is vigorous economic growth. That will reduce unemployment, allow people to use their paychecks to pay their mortgage, and help stabilize real estate and banking.

    admin
    http://invetrics.com

  6. some_guy_in_a_cube Says:
    November 24th, 2009 at 8:33 pm

    As I said here months ago, the S-C Home Price Index wants to revert to its mean, and it continues to do so: increasingly smaller price declines until a price change of around 0%, in the next 1/4 to 1/2 year.

    At that point, the MSM will take out the party hats, but I’m afraid the fun in housing is only just starting.

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