- The Big Picture - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog -
How Does the ’09 Rally Stack Up Against ’82 Bull Market?
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On November 18, 2009 @ 11:30 am In Investing,Markets | Comments Disabled
This is one of the things I will be discussing at the Berlin Conference:
>
| Rally Comparison | 1982 | 2009 |
| P/E Multiple | 8X | 26X |
| Dividend Yields | 6% | below 2% |
| Book Value | Discount to Book | 2X Premium |
| Monetary Policy | Reducing money growth and inflation rates | Creating money growth and inflation rates |
| Fiscal Policy | Aimed at reducing nondefense spending | Aimed at accelerating nondefense spending |
| Deficits | Peaking and coming down relative to GDP | Surging to 10%+ relative to GDP |
| Global Trade Barriers | Were being torn down | Are being erected |
| Regulation | Deregulation in vogue | Re-regulation rising |
| US Dollar | Plaza Accord bull market | Mercantilist bear market |
| Household Credit | Balance sheets and participation rates expanding | Balance sheets now contracting |
| Tax rates | Income, capital gains and dividend taxes declining | Taxes Rising Now |
Sources: Gluskin Sheff, S&P, Bloomberg
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/comparing-1982-rally-with-2009-rall/
Click here to print.
Copyright © 2008 The Big Picture. All rights reserved.