Here is yet another rally comparo — this one looking at all major market rallies of the last 109 years.

The Dow has begun a major rally 27 times over the past 109 years which equates to an average of one rally every four years — most major rallies (73%) resulted in a gain of between 30% and 150% (29.8% to 150.5% to be exact) and lasted between 200 and 800 trading days (9.5 months to 3.2 years):


20091113courtesy of Chart of the Day


I think a more informative chart would look at bear market rallies, rather thasn include secular bull markets. It skews the run towards the longer time line.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “Comparing Market Rallies”

  1. Joe Retail says:

    I interpret this to mean that share prices generally increase during market rallies, but they do so at different rates. Is there any other useful information here that I’m missing?

  2. flipspiceland says:

    @Joe Retail

    You obviously didn’t read the earlier post about how the decline in the quality of Rock & Roll music and Tyler’s departure from Arrowsmith has caused the market crash, did you?

  3. ckinfin says:

    BR, you’re right; rallies after deep bear market give a different picture. I have a different graph in excel how can I upload it?

  4. SavetheWhales says:


    - We have astronomical leverage ratios (FED accepting near-trash at the discount window)
    - We have ZIRP
    - We have QE

    This is unlike anything we have seen before.

    Perhaps an analogy is apt: What happens if you over-rev your engine in the hopes of getting out of a ditch? In the best case, you lurch out (a V shaped rebound). In the middling case, there is a lot of smoke and noise, but you’re stuck (a L shaped recovery). In the worst case, you blow your effing engine (a dollar OR bond market crash).

    The market is betting on a V while the FED continues to pour nitrous into the fuel tank.

    This will end well.

  5. APB says:

    A while ago, Bill Hester of the Hussman Funds did an analysis of bear market rallies and volume. The present market has moved on since Bill did his piece, but the volume and breadth are not necessarily all that great — providing more support to those who say that this is still a bear market rally.