Even More Unemployment Charts
By Barry Ritholtz - November 6th, 2009, 2:24PM
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
November 6th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Hole. Lee. Shit.
November 6th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Doesn’t look good for Obama re-election, does it?
You will need an “U” or “V” recovery to have 6 0r 7% of unemployment in 2012. Below 8% Obama is toast unless NY23 happens. As stupid as pubies are, it may just happen.
November 6th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
not below 8%, I meant higher than 8%.
November 6th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
meaningless charts … we’ve already decided that Armageddon is off the table
November 6th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Look at that second derivative. Sweet!
November 6th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I won’t speculate on how low the trough is set. But, reaching it any time sooner than 6 months from now would be upside surprise. If the last two recessions are any indication (especially the cut-to-the-bone 2001 version), employment levels won’t come fully back for at least 6 years…and they won’t be the same jobs. In the rear view mirror this will shake out as a depression, though maybe not up to your standards…you can call it the Great Strath.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
so . . . the red line going down- not good?
nothing a little QE and ZIRP can’t fix-
right?
November 6th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Whenever I read or hear predictions about an Obama second term, or about how poorly he is doing, I find myself nodding in agreement — until I look at the alternatives. Compared to most other Dems or a Republican beholden to teabagging, reality-denying wingnuts, O don’t look all that bad.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Correction: most other spineless, cowardly Dems . . .
November 6th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Unemployment this high, forget a second term period.
Poople may like Obama, but they like having a job more.
No president can “fix” economy or jobs, but people will still blame nonetheless. Next time around, Obama will have to run on his records, he can’t just blame Bush in to the power again. That’s why a united republican candidate may look good in comparison.
I personally think he will win again because the pubies’ will have a reply of ny23.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
[...] 4. The Big Picture: Even More Unemployment Charts [...]
November 6th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
To me, President Obama would really have to screw it up bad, or the overall economy would have to go further down the abyss just before the election for him NOT to be re-elected.
Want to know why?
Really?
Here goes…..Too much of the dynamic behind this election was cut along racial lines. This is endemic to America as a whole. It’s engrained. And as much as we’d like to think we’ve made progress, African Americans, who are a major voting block in these United States, had NEVER come out to vote for a candidate the way they did with President Obama. See, friends, we still have racial lines drawn in this nation, and they aren’t the old hate lines of the past. I think that the 08 election showed us that Change was coming, simply because it was something to rally behind. It was something that voting block could cheer for. They won’t un-elect him will they? What candidate from another racial or socio-economic background could unseat him?
It will be 4 more years for President Obama. COunt on that. My Hope is that the division that his ideas in Year 1 have caused will be a great unifying tie in the later years of his Presidency. I want him to succeed, because that will be good for America.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
I don’t care if you vote for the Martian party, the last chart by Calculated Risk is almost Exorcist scary. Period. Just put an eyeball on the last two recessions and imagine where that line is going.
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm
Key Factors
•The knee-jerk thought to the rise in unemployment was that it had to be due to workers reentering the workforce. However, that was not the case. The labor force declined by 31,000 people as 259,000 workers left the workforce over the last month.
•The jump in the unemployment rate was solely due to an increase in the unemployed. It was not from any statistical manipulations.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Almost every other employment recession had totally erased their loss by now…we have not even turned up yet.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Brian Wesbury was very confident on Bloomie just now, so I have changed my mind and am also confident. He also has a new book out called “It’s not as Bad as You Think” (not sure if he’s referring to his economic forecasting record). Can’t wait until it’s selling for a penny on AMZN. Maybe it will debut at a penny.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
It took 7 quarters of 7% GDP growth to lower the unemployment rate by just 2.5% following the 80′s recession.
Anybody think we have more than a snowball’s chance in hell of seeing 7% growth anytime in the near future?
Mish is right; chronicly high unemployment for at least a decade…
November 6th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
I’m afraid that America has become The Great Job Destroying Machine.
The boys would seem to have a bit of a problem on their hands.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
I thought Calculated Risk said that the chart does not yet include the Birth Death adjustment, which should serve to take off another 800,000 to 900,000 jobs from the red line. Just to say, it could be worse.
November 7th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
[...] are more where this one came from and they’re all VERY [...]
November 9th, 2009 at 10:16 am
[...] is above 10%, and at its highest level since 1983. Here are a few economic [...]