Comments on: Fixing Misleading Official Data

By: Transor Z

Transor Z — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:38:23 +0000

@sbailey:

Nice comment. I made a number of inquiries to state Secretary of State offices a few months back to collect data on business incorporations and dissolutions.

A few state offices said they have no way of quantifying those numbers on an annual basis. I was floored. How can a government office issue incorporation/dissolution documents and not at least keep a gross count of transactions? What would that be — counting total entries in a database or Excel spreadsheet? Unreal.

By: GetALife

GetALife — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:05:55 +0000

BR Sez: Why are you so against accuracy in data? Is it because it disagrees with your ideology?

That’s a queer question. I have nothing against accuracy by getting all riled up about a 0.05% data error on GOV’T DATA ain’t worth losin sleep over. There are already folks working at addressing this. To focus on this suggests that you believe markets are overestimating economic strength and thus overpriced which surely you don’t agree with given your current holdings, no?

By: sbailey

sbailey — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:45:15 +0000

Barry, thanks for the link.

I had a BLS and a BEA rep presenting at the conference I chaired last spring, talking about the CPI vs. the PCE deflator, and when it was pointed out that there was a sizable difference between the weight given to housing in each deflator, neither could explain it.

While many of your readers may think that data is manipulated by those who produce it, I think it’s closer to the truth to say that measuring this stuff is extremely challenging, and we continue to cut data collection programs instead of investing in improving the system. There doesn’t seem to be much of a lobby for better data.

And we could have the best data in the world, and politicos and commentators would still try to put the spin on it.

By: willid3

willid3 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:47:31 +0000

Curmudgeon, I often wondered how we could measure things in dollars only because it like measuring the speed of some thing, but using different yardsticks to determine that speed.
best ex.
a car hits 55. now is it 55 MPH or 55 KPH
and if you happen to change how a mile (or kilometer) is measured between runs, how then do you compare the results?
and considering how much commodities have been subject to speculation, its getting really tough to determine their values too

By: willid3

willid3 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:31:33 +0000

i seem to recall several years ago that some were pushing the idea that that carburetor was really a gain for the US economy and added to the GDP.

By: bsneath

bsneath — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:28:53 +0000

I wish our elected officials and the rest of the well-off crowd would spend some time to ponder this quote. (taken off of CR)

A quote from a conference this weekend, from the NY Times:

“There are families not eating at the end of the month,” said Stephen Quinn, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at Wal-Mart Stores, and “literally lining up at midnight” at Wal-Mart stores waiting to buy food when paychecks or government checks land in their accounts.

By: MRegan

MRegan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:24:28 +0000

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091106-704867.html

Gafisa @ 33+ Will it head into the forties? 25% move up? ……DYODD.

By: MRegan

MRegan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:19:24 +0000

I assert the following: The Global Macro Future is predictable. (2-3 year timeframe)

You’re welcome.

By: The Curmudgeon

The Curmudgeon — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:05:40 +0000

The thing about virtually all economic data is their tautological nature. 9.5% increase in productivity? Pretty easy to understand, if you know that more money is being made with fewer worker-hours, which are the inputs used to derive productivity figures.

Same’s true of GDP, etc, except this: The metric by which we measure all these things is generally US dollars, and when there’s been this much monkeying around with the dollar, ascertaining it’s true worth is not something that is amenable to governmental statistical manipulations like the PPI and CPI. I’d say a dollar about now is worth about 1/1,100 of an ounce of gold, or about 1/80th of a barrel of oil. Or, as the guy in the McDonald’s commercial finds out, it’s worth about one double cheeseburger or a small fry.

By: MRegan

MRegan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:47:53 +0000

The Problem extends beyond what we count. What* we count with is even more problematic.

*USD- what deal was reached in St. Andrews at the G-20?

My recommendation (DMM.to and others of its ilk), is to find protection against the devaluation of the USD and maintain capacity to engage in transactions- try buying daily necessities with a $1200+ coin, if you think you already buy too much at Sam’s Club now, fuh-geh-da-boweh-tit!

http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE:DMM