Friday Linkfest
Some reading for a Friday afternoon:
• Is Gold a six thousand year-old bubble? (FT)
• Market Ignorance is Bliss (The Street.com)
• The Real Danger of ‘One Big Regulator’ (WSJ) What if those in control don’t believe in oversight?
• The ‘Real’ Unemployment Rate (Market Talk)
• Corporate insiders betting on the rally continuing (Marketwatch)
• As Shipping Slows, Banks and Carriers Fear Loan Defaults (NYT)
• The Biggest Wall Street Conspiracies (Big Money) I disagree with the oil conspiracy, for reasons enunciated here.
• A bailout twofer:
-A decade after Glass-Steagall’s repeal, it’s time to reverse Sandy Weill’s legacy (Daily Finance)
-J.P. Morgan’s Dimon Takes On Washington’s Big Bank Critics (Real Time Economics) — We shoulda let Bear fail, just to see the cocky Dimon scramble to cover trillions in derivative exposure.
• After Bankruptcy, G.M. Struggles to Shed a Legendary Bureaucracy (NYT)
• Google to Newspapers: learn how to use Robots.txt (Inquisitr)
• The Art Market Shows Signs of Life (WSJ)
• The graph the record industry doesn’t want you to see (Times Online) Record labels may be in trouble, but musicians are doing relatively fine…
What are YOU reading?
November 13th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
You know what I am reading, Barry? Absolutely nothing….I’m tuckered out from this crazy market where things are making 52 week highs and all time highs despite a piss poor economy. Sometimes, you just have to take yourself off the reading table, reflect, and wait things out. I suspect others feel the same way I do.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Newmont eyes steady production at Peru gold mine
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1241152720091112
“His statement conflicts with one made last month by Roque Benavides, Buenaventura’s chief executive, who said he expected to see production at Yanacocha falling roughly 25 percent to 1.5 million ounces in 2010, as lower ore grades are explored.”
Oops in Español is roughly: “Joder! lo recagué!”
November 13th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
TBTF isn’t a problem
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/13/note-to-jamie-dimon-repeating-something-doesnt-make-it-true/
banks shrink loans
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/macro-view/us-banks-are-still-shrinking-their-loan-books/1216/#comments
spending down…deficit up?
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/11/spending-down-deficit-up-not-good.html
some strange reason consumers (workers) don’t like unemployment
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/11/consumers-dont-enjoy-unemployment.html
will small banks replicate TBTF?
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/11/12/will-small-banks-replicate-big-banks/
November 13th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
and yesterday was the 10th birthday of financial innovation
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/11/12/happy-10th-birthday-financial-modernization-bill/
November 13th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
TBTF isn’t a problem
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/13/note-to-jamie-dimon-repeating-something-doesnt-make-it-true/
November 13th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
banks not doing loans?
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/macro-view/us-banks-are-still-shrinking-their-loan-books/1216/?tag=main;main-edit
November 13th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
consumer (workers) don’t like unemployment
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/11/consumers-dont-enjoy-unemployment.html
imagine that
November 13th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
@willid3:
Tonight I’m gonna party like its 1999!
November 13th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Forgot to h/t incakolanews on the reuters piece.
Also, another h/t to IKN and Felix Salomon
http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/begin/cells/scale/
November 13th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
TBTF isn’t a problem….
So, Lehman Brothers didn’t happen? It was just a bad dream? What a relief. Need to stop eating spicy food at night.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
‘After Bankruptcy, G.M. Struggles to Shed a Legendary Bureaucracy”
wow- that anyone has a job at GM is staggering- that they have been in slow motion failure for decades is undeniable- that their bureaucracy is still there- what else was expected- now GM is forever feeding from the taxpayer trough-
you can either make it- or you can’t-
and GM couldn’t- and yet- they’re still here
November 13th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
re: WSJ on Art – a friend texted me last night that he was at an art auction and things were selling for way above estimates. “I give up – just go long every asset class” was his conclusion in the face of this alternate reality
November 13th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Professor Black giving a talk in Canada about corruption, at least we don’t have to worry about that in the good o’l USA! Go Wall Street-Washington Revolving Door!
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/11/prof-william-k-black-on-financial.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong
Looks like NeoClassic Economics is Not Even Wrong, like string theory?:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/11/06/my-per-capita-talk-on-debt/
If you think this economic downturn is a quickie, also see the Koo talk in the Big Picture Video Section.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0921/opinions-peter-woit-physics-ideas-opinions.html
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/10/they-tried-to-outsmart-wall-street/
Wait a second, does’nt Wall Street hire a lot of these two groups.
I guess the way they do a lot of derivatives is also not even wrong.
Unless you have the rest of America to bail you out.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
What am I reading?
An Oct. 8, 2005 article by Elinor Mills about an Eric Schmidt presentation back at that time. CNET linked to it today in the context of their current sit down with him.
In it, you find such nuggets as “…estimated $283 billion spent on advertising in the United States, $11.3 billion is spent on the Internet, Schmidt said. ”
Right now, GOOG’s TTM Revenue is $23B; guess they got a big chunk of that ol’ online advertising.
He also mentioned that they did a “math exercise” that predicted it would take the company about 300 years to index all of the world’s information (which is their stated mission). In the CNET interview with him this week, 4 years after that math exercise, he’s not sure it can be done at all.
My takeaway from 4 years ago compared to this week is that, as smart as he started out back then, he’s just getting smarter, and he’s doing the exact opposite of growing complacent. Good news for GOOG shareholders!
November 13th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Prieur du Plessis cites 6 fundamental reasons why Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) is advising his readers to invest in gold, then references David Fuller’s TA on a possible short-term pullback:
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/13/richard-russell-six-reasons-to-invest-in-gold/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FVYxj+%28Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town%29
November 13th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
HP agrees $2.7bn cash deal for 3Com
“…Trading in options soared before the news broke, suggesting a possible leak of information on the deal…”
…do insider traders read the paper?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db3fd13e-cf2a-11de-8a4b-00144feabdc0.html
Why Fort Hood Really Happened
“The most-heard reason for the possible failure [of stopping Fort Hood killings] is political correctness. No doubt.”
…Right Wing arm-waver Daniel Henniger thinks if it’s “most heard” that’s enough proof for him. But was “political correctness” somehow temporarily squelched during the recent uncovering and stopping of terror plots in Colorado and Detroit?
http://online.wsj.com/article/wonder_land.html
Benmosche threatens to Jump Ship
…The WSJ and CNBC get suckered into this grandstanding. Of course you want to pay your employees less. Of course you want to blame someone else. Of course the gov’t is the RW media’s lighting rod.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125791145785743099.html
November 13th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
dollar fall…started in 2002?
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/11/12/dollar-doom-loop/.
November 13th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
“Is Gold a six thousand year-old bubble?” (FT)—Here’s your answer….
http://seekingalpha.com/article/173065-do-we-goldbugs-finally-have-your-attention
November 13th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
More Americans Bypass Banks
P2P lending sites were forced to close briefly in 2008 when a new rule required them to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. But most are back in business now–and thriving. There were $647 million in P2P loans in 2007. That’s grown to $3 billion and is expected to nearly double to $5.8 billion next year, according to Celent, a consulting firm that tracks P2Ps.
November 13th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
must be friday
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/bank-failures-121-122-two-more-in.html
November 13th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
civilian hours vs GDP
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/11/civilian-hours-vs-real-gdp.html
November 13th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
tbtf…part 2000?
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/11/13/the-too-big-to-fail-debate-continues/
November 13th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
not sure how title this one
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/11/what-should-maria-bartiromos-d.php
November 13th, 2009 at 7:04 pm
post recession world?
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/11/welcome-to-the-post-recession.php
November 13th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
A lot of people are screaming for O to create jobs. This indicates stunning naivete, willful ignorance, a lack of comprehension of what’s going on.
A lot of people who lost their jobs lost jobs that were never really needed and are never coming back.
A lot of people need to learn to live without many of the things they are accustomed to or feel they are entitled to because a lot of corporations are learning to live without them.
If they haven’t yet learned what the future holds, maybe they should take a look at the past…
http://www.slate.com/id/2235377/
November 13th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
ear, lets hope not. or their will be major consequences for all of us.
November 13th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
Pat G.@6:43- its gotta come from somewhere and mine production has not been growing
gold as a financial asset and gold for jewelry are in competition
November 13th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Corporations learning to live without workers:
Yep, real brilliant. Maybe they should learn where their customers come from.
I was reading recently how a guy was bragging about how he reduced his advertising budget for new workers by using social networks to find his recruits. Instead of paying $260K for advertising to find new workers he was paying $1800 for a wine and cheese party at the job fair his workers brought in through facebook etc.
This is all fine and dandy that he saved so much money but does he realize that this is now money that won’t be going into the economy and thus maybe not get spent by his potential customers at those advertising firms? I don’t know what business he is in but at some point, if we all save gazillions of dollars no one will have any customers left.
I know this has been said before but maybe the next generation has to learn how an economy works. The saying ‘you have to spend money to make money’ is taking on new meaning. Maybe when these corporations learn how to grease the skids again they will realize that the skid leads back to their front door
November 13th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
baby boomers retiring
http://www.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2009/11/12/baby-boomers-on-the-verge-of-retirement.html
November 13th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
How the Common Man Sees It Says:
November 13th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Corporations learning to live without workers:
you are so right
i guess they will also learn to do without customers too!
November 13th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
gold as a financial asset and gold for jewelry are in competition
They won’t be when gold reaches its proper clearing price
November 13th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
the result of business learning do with out employees
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_RETAIL_SALES_OCTOBER?SITE=CARIE&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
November 13th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
HtCMSI@7:39-
price setter v price taker
when is an interesting question
November 14th, 2009 at 12:42 am
“Austin-area foreclosures hit high for the decade”
Link: http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/realestate/2009/11/14/1114foreclosures.html
November 14th, 2009 at 8:00 am
I know this has been said before but maybe the next generation has to learn how an economy works. The saying ‘you have to spend money to make money’ is taking on new meaning. Maybe when these corporations learn how to grease the skids again they will realize that the skid leads back to their front door
——–
That sounds familiar. It sounds like the lambasting I got over the last decade for not spending all my money and some… I was a cheapskate who was keeping the economy down.
Please spare us the gyrating self-righteousness.
November 14th, 2009 at 8:25 am
I’m not saying that Dan but at some point how many BMWs does a guy need? Henry Ford seemed to get the idea that if his workers couldn’t afford his cars then he probably wasn’t going to sell as many and he did all right.
What I have been seeing lately is that businesses can only seem to comfortably support two classes of people. Workers and bankers(debtors). I leave it up to others which are more important to the healthy growth of a business and economy
Speaking of BMWs and Fords
Dutch drivers to pay tax on road time, not on car
November 14th, 2009 at 8:29 am
Another thought. I was just thinking this last night. What if it wasn’t debt but selfishness that destroyed economies whereby at some point people get a bug in them that makes it unable for them to spend but all they can do is hoard. That would take people into a vicious circle that would be difficult to get out of.
That would be great Twilight Zone story depending on how it played out
November 14th, 2009 at 8:37 am
danm – I spent what I earned .. just a little beyond .. not on gambling, prostitutes and drugs (well beer) .. and don’t do the newspaper 2×2 either (still subscribe to the ink on dead trees delivered by a 40something in a car .. uuulll)(pop 3700) …. I hear ya’s (all) and in some corners I hear “spare us the gyrating self-righteousness”
“Someday Soon” by Firefall
http://www.viddler.com/explore/MusicMike/videos/8/
November 14th, 2009 at 8:41 am
How the Common Man Sees It:
I wouldn’t keep on dead wood to support the economy. Not all business owners cut to get mor BMWs.
IMO, the whole economy is out of whack. There are too many businesses in nearly all sectors but most don’t see it yet. Even after the shakeout they probably still won’t understand what happened.
Just take your typical 50 year old couple (45-50 is the largest group in the economy) and project their next ten years of spending. Make a list of where spending is going to increase and where it is going to decline. I am 40 and I have personally witnessed the dramatic change with my parents and with my in-laws. I also know that they were early because they are the oldest boomers and from what they have been telling their friends are about to do or experiencing.
So the way I see it, there will be first a lot of cost cutting but still this won’t be enough. Bankruptcies and consolidation will follow. And that is what our economy needs to get back into health.
November 14th, 2009 at 8:50 am
I also know that they were early because they are the oldest boomers and from what they have been telling their friends are about to do or experiencing.
—————-
And they are in the top 5% in net worth. And that’s food for thought.
November 14th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Greg0658:
It’s interesting to see the response my words triggered. Just demonstrates the law of unintended consequences.
We do have the power to change the world but not in the ways we think we will. lol!
November 14th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Comman Man @ 7:38PM
It’s called the “Paradox of Thrift”. The more one saves the less is contributed to the economy & as a consequence over-all wages will begin to decline and result in a rise in prople’s use of debt to make ends meet. End result is not a pretty picture.
November 14th, 2009 at 9:49 am
So the way I see it, there will be first a lot of cost cutting but still this won’t be enough
———————–
Many expect the younger generation to pick up the baton but it won’t happen over the next decade because:
1. There was a baby bust after the baby boom. So the group coming is smaller than the group exiting. This has not happenend since the 1930s.
2. The young ones are coming in with debt (education) and higher costs. If they purchase a house at 300K instead of 150K, they can’t spend as much in the general economy. Thus the general economy will need to contract. For example, a friend of mine bought a condo 7 years ago, at age 33, for 100K on an 80K income. The 33 year old today, with the same income, would be buying the same condo for 250K but all other costs have crept up: muni, maintenance, heating, electricity…). 5 year fixed is nearly the same today as it was 7 years ago. But variable is much lower (we’re in Canada). Home values have been moving up on short rates.
All this to say that a huge tsunami is coming our way in the market for consumer products.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:02 am
We are both Gen Xers Dan and probably see economics from very much the same way just because we came after the giant wave of people. I’m not a huge spender myself just because I can’t trust the government to be there. Especially because they promise to do just that.
November 14th, 2009 at 10:06 am
This is discouraging:
Britain is protecting the biggest heroin crop of all time
In a sick sort of way I guess it shows how free (albeit black) market capitalism can produce record outcome when the hand of government is not taxing the stuffing out of it
November 14th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be
“Our very way of life is under siege,” said Mortensen, whose understanding of the Constitution derives not from a close reading of the document but from talk-show pundits, books by television personalities, and the limitless expanse of his own colorful imagination. “It’s time for true Americans to stand up and protect the values that make us who we are.”
According to Mortensen—an otherwise mild-mannered husband, father, and small-business owner—the most serious threat to his fanciful version of the 222-year-old Constitution is the attempt by far-left “traitors” to strip it of its religious foundation.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/area_man_passionate_defender_of
ROFLMAO…