King Report: Political Bombshells
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A political bombshell exploded in the US last night. While the largest impact is on Democrats, there were clear warning shots fired at GOP nabobs.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent over $100 million to retain his office; but he only procured 51% of the votes. Polls gave Mike a 12 to 16pt lead…RINOs & incumbents are endangered species.
In New York Congressional District 23, imperialistic state GOP leaders decided to disenfranchise party regulars by eschewing a primary and slating leftist candidate Dede Scozzafava. The district leans to the right, so conservatives and independents rallied behind obscure candidate Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. The GOP candidate, supported by GOP House leaders, trailed so badly in the polls that she left the race last week and threw her support to moderate Democrat Bill Owens, who won the race with 49%. Independent candidate Hoffman got 45%; GOP candidate Scozzafava got only 6%.
GOP candidates won both the Virginia, which was expected, and New Jersey Gubernatorial races.
In Virginia, a state handily won by Obama just one year ago, GOP candidate McDonnell won by 18%. In heavily Democratic New Jersey, a state that Obama won by 15 points, flawed GOP candidate Chris Christie defeated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs chief, by 5%.
Exit polling and focus groups overwhelming called ‘jobs’ the most important issue in the races. In New Jersey, property taxes were issue #2.
ABC News: ‘09 Exit Polls: Vast Economic Discontent Spells Trouble for Dems in 2010
Tuesday’s results are a clear refutation of big government, big spending, big borrowing, TARP, crony-capitalist bailouts, more socialism, etc.
Voters do not believe that current or proposed big government solutions will create jobs. You can blame Ron Reagan for this…Can you imagine the pressure on BLS to craft a better-than-reality NFP number?
ObamaCare in its present form is DOA because Blue Dog Democrats, and something like 49 House Democrats represent districts that voted for McCain, will run from big government programs.
Resuscitating the US economy with jobs is now ‘Job 1’ for US politicians. Everything else is #2.
Pundits often assert that ‘voter turnout’ is the key to an election. Astute pundits note that ‘voter intensity’ determines election. Pocketbook issues almost always determine elections. So those that depend on the government for a check, whether an entitlement or a public sector position, will turn out to vote.
When those on the other side of the ledger get upset, their pocketbook motivation compels them to vote. The US by all research is a center-moderately right nation. When the populace gets upset, the US either turns a tad left, like in 1976, 1992, and 2008, or moderately right.
We have averred that ‘The Bottom’ might appear in Q2 or Q3 2010 and a move to the right for the 2010 would be a major factor in the process.
SPZs are four handles higher in overnight trading. BUT it is too early to determine how Team Obama and Pelosi-Reed will react. If Team Obama and Pelosi-Reid promote more big-government solutions to the economic and employment problems, buh-bye dollar and hello inflationary recession or worse.
If Reaganesque solutions are applied, there will be an excruciating purgative process that will greatly damage stocks but help the dollar and bonds…Don’t bet the ranch just yet on either direction.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:21 am
Tuesday’s results are a clear refutation of big government, big spending, big borrowing, TARP, crony-capitalist bailouts, more socialism, etc.
OK, who wants to tell this guy that Dems gained a House seat? And that the 2 new Rep governors are about as likely to give milk as they are to turn down stimulus money? Talk about seeing what you want to see…
November 4th, 2009 at 7:59 am
In New York Congressional District 23, imperialistic state GOP leaders decided to disenfranchise party regulars by eschewing a primary and slating leftist candidate Dede Scozzafava.
Or, to put it another way, Republicans discover that demonizing RINOs and sending in Sarah Palin to back a candidate who doesn’t know or care about local issues is a good way to antagonize Republican but independent-minded voters, lose themselves a safe seat, and continue their march toward irrelevance.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:35 am
“Tuesday’s results are a clear refutation of big government, big spending, big borrowing, TARP, crony-capitalist bailouts, more socialism, etc.”
If this is true, then voters have no party that represents their views.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:38 am
I live in NJ and this vote was clearly a revolt against the incumbent. Would not matter who was in office he/she was gone. Another thing to consider is that Christie did not even win 50% of vote. Virgina is probably a little different but first and foremost I also see that as getting the incumbent party out. The upstate NY result is a clear message to the far right, but followed the theme of voting the incumbent party out. I found it amusing that Hoffman does not even live in the region.
The message is to the incumbents of both parties. Hopefully the economic incumbents get thrown out next.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:46 am
[...] the vote certainly supporting the continuation of gridlock–which is a positive. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/king-report-political-bombshells/ So we now have four factors (better revenue growth, improving macroeconomic [...]
November 4th, 2009 at 10:13 am
As a casual observer of NY’s 23rd district election, what struck me is that an independent candidate was able to garner 45% of the vote. That’s remarkable.
If independents do well in the 2010 mid-term elections, does that portent an independent candidate having a serious impact in the 2012 presidential race (a la Perot in 1992)? I think Perot got 19% of the popular vote, and any comparable situation in 2012 would make for interesting triangulation strategies by Obama and the Republican candidate to claw back those leaning towards an independent.
Or maybe this is all hooey because the dynamics of NY’s 23rd district were very unusual . . .
November 4th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Dede Scozzafava a leftist? What the $%#@ are you smoking.
Her voting record put her on the conservative side of her caucus in the state house.
By the standard of Sarah Palin/Dick Armey Republicans, and of Long Island Neanderthals, she was “liberal,” but she was well within the mainstream of the Upstate New York Republican party.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
As a casual observer of NY’s 23rd district election, what struck me is that an independent candidate was able to garner 45% of the vote. That’s remarkable.
It’s remarkable that they got the Republican to drop out, but given that, it’s hardly remarkable that the loser in a two-person race got 45% of the vote. I thought he would win.
Besides, he was hardly “independent”, having been helicoptered in by the national Republican party.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
And he lost, because no one likes a carpetbagger.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:53 am
This guy needs a serious check up of his medicines cabinet….and fast!