Comments on: Non Farm Payroll Is . . . http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 18:29:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Kort http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-2/#comment-232664 Kort Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:38:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232664 @techy We are 10.2% unemployment partly because we need to keep adding 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with new entrants into the workforce (citizens coming of age to enter the workfoce, immigration). If we stopped having babies and cut off immigration (ie. a negative population growth rate), then it would begin to decrease our unemployment rate. If Japan had more open immigration (ha) or started having babies, then over the past 20 years they'd have more people and, consequently, more people unemployed. The rate would be higher than 5% unemployment. The solution, then, if Japan's 5% is so great right now, is for us to kill off a bunch of unemployed Americans. @techy
We are 10.2% unemployment partly because we need to keep adding 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with new entrants into the workforce (citizens coming of age to enter the workfoce, immigration). If we stopped having babies and cut off immigration (ie. a negative population growth rate), then it would begin to decrease our unemployment rate. If Japan had more open immigration (ha) or started having babies, then over the past 20 years they’d have more people and, consequently, more people unemployed. The rate would be higher than 5% unemployment. The solution, then, if Japan’s 5% is so great right now, is for us to kill off a bunch of unemployed Americans.

]]> By: cvienne http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-2/#comment-232663 cvienne Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:37:00 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232663 "If we want to kill off Americans too we can get our unemployment rate lower, too." That's IS, IN FACT, the plan... Commit more troops to Afghanistan & Pass a Healthcare Bill... “If we want to kill off Americans too we can get our unemployment rate lower, too.”

That’s IS, IN FACT, the plan…

Commit more troops to Afghanistan & Pass a Healthcare Bill…

]]> By: van schaik http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232660 van schaik Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:24:48 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232660 "unemployment is a lagging indicator. when the rate hits 15%"..." In reality unemployment was a lagging indicator in only three of the last ten recessions. In seven of the last ten recessions the unemployment rate actually started falling at, or near, the end of the recession. Only in the last two recessions did we see a significant deterioration in the employment situation after the recession ended and after the recession of December 1969 - December 1970 unemployment basically drifted sideways for about a year before significantly improving. You can see the long term charts of employment from a variety of angles at http://bit.ly/21yYaT. http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com “unemployment is a lagging indicator. when the rate hits 15%”…”

In reality unemployment was a lagging indicator in only three of the last ten recessions. In seven of the last ten recessions the unemployment rate actually started falling at, or near, the end of the recession. Only in the last two recessions did we see a significant deterioration in the employment situation after the recession ended and after the recession of December 1969 – December 1970 unemployment basically drifted sideways for about a year before significantly improving. You can see the long term charts of employment from a variety of angles at http://bit.ly/21yYaT. http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com

]]> By: techy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232631 techy Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:01:20 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232631 ???? elaborate please Kort Says: November 6th, 2009 at 11:47 am Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world and a decline in the population (negative growth) over the past decade. ???If we want to kill off Americans too we can get our unemployment rate lower, too.??? ???? elaborate please

Kort Says:

November 6th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world and a decline in the population (negative growth) over the past decade. ???If we want to kill off Americans too we can get our unemployment rate lower, too.???

]]> By: Kort http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232621 Kort Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:47:09 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232621 Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world and a decline in the population (negative growth) over the past decade. If we want to kill off Americans too we can get our unemployment rate lower, too. Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world and a decline in the population (negative growth) over the past decade. If we want to kill off Americans too we can get our unemployment rate lower, too.

]]> By: techy http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232620 techy Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:41:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232620 mannwich.. the grim reaper of unemployment is being kept at bay with reinflation.... if not for the $12 trillion or so pumped in to the system we would have easily seen most banks go bankrupt...most consumers go bankrupt....UE around 30%. and my saying that i will prefer being employed than my cash appreciating....means: i would continue giving higher taxes to help fight the crisis so that i can have my job to pay the tax. i would be singing a different song if i had enough savings that 4% return would pay for my living.....then i would be enraged at the way the government is inflating the money supply..... If i would be out of work.....i will be pressing for more government spending to help employment and some economic activity......because private companies are not going to do it(they are still cutting cost) ---AHAB When i said whats wrong with japan.....i meant that japan having gone through 20 years of supposedly bad time is still much better than most developed countries. as far as deflation winning in japan....i dont have enough data to draw any conclusion. (who cares deflation or inflation....as long as things are stable enough for people to earn their living to pay for a decent lifestyle) bsneath: I am not so grim on the future of USA.... we may not have the same party as between 1985-2000, but that was a big bubble... chinese are going to keep screaming....but they need "export oriented jobs" so does japan, india, brazil etc.. this reflation game is a very its a fine balancing act......and so far i am happy the way it has been played......considering that we were looking at massive deflation and destruction of society due to the crisis. mannwich..

the grim reaper of unemployment is being kept at bay with reinflation….

if not for the $12 trillion or so pumped in to the system we would have easily seen most banks go bankrupt…most consumers go bankrupt….UE around 30%.

and my saying that i will prefer being employed than my cash appreciating….means: i would continue giving higher taxes to help fight the crisis so that i can have my job to pay the tax.

i would be singing a different song if i had enough savings that 4% return would pay for my living…..then i would be enraged at the way the government is inflating the money supply…..

If i would be out of work…..i will be pressing for more government spending to help employment and some economic activity……because private companies are not going to do it(they are still cutting cost)

—AHAB

When i said whats wrong with japan…..i meant that japan having gone through 20 years of supposedly bad time is still much better than most developed countries.

as far as deflation winning in japan….i dont have enough data to draw any conclusion. (who cares deflation or inflation….as long as things are stable enough for people to earn their living to pay for a decent lifestyle)

bsneath:

I am not so grim on the future of USA…. we may not have the same party as between 1985-2000, but that was a big bubble…

chinese are going to keep screaming….but they need “export oriented jobs” so does japan, india, brazil etc..

this reflation game is a very its a fine balancing act……and so far i am happy the way it has been played……considering that we were looking at massive deflation and destruction of society due to the crisis.

]]> By: rootless_cosmopolitan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232617 rootless_cosmopolitan Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:36:28 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232617 By the Federal Reserve, not by the Treasury. By the Federal Reserve, not by the Treasury.

]]> By: rootless_cosmopolitan http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232616 rootless_cosmopolitan Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:34:57 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232616 Ricky, "... most of our debt isn’t owned by us" Who is "us'? Not by you and your family, or by the participants in this blog, but if you mean with "us" creditors in the United States you are mistaken with respect to this factoid. About 15% of the almost 53 trillion US-dollars total credit market debt in United States is owed to creditors in the rest of the world. In contrast, the overwhelming fraction of the debt, about 85% is owed to domestic creditors, mostly financial institutions. See the Flow of Funds Accounts by the Treasure on page 60, Table L.1: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf rc Ricky,

“… most of our debt isn’t owned by us”

Who is “us’? Not by you and your family, or by the participants in this blog, but if you mean with “us” creditors in the United States you are mistaken with respect to this factoid. About 15% of the almost 53 trillion US-dollars total credit market debt in United States is owed to creditors in the rest of the world. In contrast, the overwhelming fraction of the debt, about 85% is owed to domestic creditors, mostly financial institutions. See the Flow of Funds Accounts by the Treasure on page 60, Table L.1:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf

rc

]]> By: hue http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232600 hue Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:13:50 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232600 we're not japan. our markets will continue to rise with queasing. and we don't have a demography problem with retiring baby boomers. how does Japan like exporting versus the Chinese who pegged its currency to the sinking dollar? we’re not japan. our markets will continue to rise with queasing. and we don’t have a demography problem with retiring baby boomers.

how does Japan like exporting versus the Chinese who pegged its currency to the sinking dollar?

]]> By: Mannwich http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/non-farm-payroll-is/comment-page-1/#comment-232596 Mannwich Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:07:02 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43181#comment-232596 @ahab: I get the sense that techy (and others) might find Japan less appealing if THEY themselves were out of work and suffering. @ahab: I get the sense that techy (and others) might find Japan less appealing if THEY themselves were out of work and suffering.

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