Non Farm Payroll Preview
This morning, we get the Employment Situation released at 8:30. Consensus estimates are for a loss of 175,000 jobs, and a range of 105,000 to 250,000.
I suspect those numbers might be too optimistic. As the Fed stated, we will have “Exceptionally low rates for extended periods of time.” That implies to me that whatever early look the FOMC had at prelim NFP data was not very encouraging.
Indeed, what set off yesterday’s 200 point rally was in large part expectations that the Fed will retain an accommodative stance. Indeed, even the Bank of England expanded their quantitative easing activities by £25bn.
We stand at one of those odd junctions, when bad news will be perversely good news. A weak NFP report will be more confirmationt hat QE will continue deep into 2010, and the Fed will keep the liquidity spigots wide open. Too strong an improvement — a less bad report — raises the spectre of the end of easy money. Mr. Market may not like that too much . . .
November 6th, 2009 at 6:37 am
Power must last as long as possible. The resurgence of the old clinton regime, and the democratic control of congress, is the timing of everything today to secure the 2012 re-election of
The Bamster’s men behind the curtain.
Manipulating these levers to assure that result is the only game on.
The tactic is antediluvian: create a pain that only you can relieve and the people will fall for it.
Someone once said:
“Never let a good crisis go to waste”. In China, as you know, crisis and opportunity are that same.
8 years is normally now enough time for an adminstration to gather to itself and its playuhs, al the pelf they will require for many generations. If by some stroke of good fortune for them, they get to do it for 12 years all the better. The republicans’ control of congress from 1994 showed the door to the democrats who held power for 40 years and no doubt enriched many republicans behind the curtain
like George Schultz.
Someone posted yesterday during the anti-semite thread that Wall Street used to be divided among WASP, Catholic, and Jewish firms.
We may be only witness to that very same contest over the last 22 years, with the Jews (clinton’s and the bamsters administration) and the Wasps, Bush’s 1 and 2 administrations).
November 6th, 2009 at 7:01 am
oil was flat yesterday, we would have been up 300 pts if it rallied, oil will probably be strong today containing damage of bad numbers, which imho, i agree with assessment, fed had preview of the numbers, GS called for 1050 year end and 85 oil, imho, 85 oil crushes the market, copper is one hard sob, it will not go down after a 200% rally, if it cracks, watch outish
November 6th, 2009 at 7:41 am
What has happened in 12 months of can kicking? BB has saved wall street, the TNTF banks have made money speculating with BBs free money.On main street jobs and housing are still heading south with huge numbers of foreclosures and community bank failures in the pipelines.O’B and BB are going to have a collision when O’B wants to start a new WPA to solve the job crisis and BB resists higher US deficits
November 6th, 2009 at 8:07 am
AWESOME!!!
it’s so cool that we help Wall Street in times of need-
struggling as they were-
American’s have always dug deep in their pockets to help the less fortunate-
Wall Street- we’re there for you-
and that bad news is good news for them- so they can make $$ at the expense of future prosperity-
well- who are we to question the wise and thoughtful decisions of the Fed-
the great unwashed masses must just understand that it is not what Wall Street can do for America it is what America can do for Wall Street-
standing tall and proud
November 6th, 2009 at 8:27 am
It is incredibly perverse that actions that put a huge long-term drag on our future are greeted as positive developments because they allow rampant bubble speculation.
That’s where the Fed has cornered itself. I noted a couple of years ago that the Fed could print all it wanted, but could not control where the money went. That has proven 100 percent true and it is the huge flaw in Bernanke’s academic approach to the real world.
The Fed started rate easing to help banks. Somewhere along the way the measure changed… now it is to goose us out of recession. However, the facts show that it is having no such effect; it is merely piling up money in the hands on ‘connected’ bankers, who have used it for hoarding and speculation. Rather than admit failure, the Fed plows ahead. We will all pay for this, but we have no voice in the matter.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:30 am
BR wrote:
Partially. Dividend futures for the market jumped upward on 4 November 2009, which wasn’t matched by a corresponding increase in stock prices at the same time. It’s likely that a good part of the increase in stock prices yesterday was a delayed reaction to that change.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:52 am
What I find interesting is that the Baltic Dry Index continues to rise. I believe that it’s now at 3335…but what happens at 4000 amidst all this silliness, will be worth watching. At some point there must be something “there” to support this so-called recovery. In my work-a-day world, I don’t see it. Moreover, people I know are, simply, unhappy and tired of being used and bs’d.
Thankfully, they’re starting to understand as TPTB themselves (inadvertantly) pull the curtain back to reveal their own sour truth.
IMHO, truth will ultimately prevail.
November 6th, 2009 at 10:45 am
If this were ancient Rome, Mr Market would be one of the guys in the Colosseum cheering a Christian being devoured by a lion.
November 6th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Why do we need the banks? They borrow our money at 0% and mark it up to 5-6% when they lend it to us. What is their purpose?