The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Oct Payrolls fell by 190k, 15k more than expected BUT net revisions were up by 91k over the two prior months. The unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, .3% more than expected and up from 9.8% in Sept as household employment fell by 589k and the labor force shrunk by 31k. The all in rate rose to 17.5% from 17% and the average duration of unemployment rose to 26.9 weeks from 26.2 in Sept and 22.5 back in May. Average weekly hours held at the lowest level since at least ‘64 but Average hourly earnings rose .3%, .2% more than expected. Manufacturing shed 61k jobs, 19k more than expected. Most other sectors lost jobs. The one positive was the 34k increase in temp workers, up for a 3rd month and is historically a precursor to permanent hiring assuming economic trends continue to improve. Education, health and federal government added jobs. The Birth/Death model magically added 86k jobs vs 94k in Oct ‘08. Bottom line, sluggish labor picture continues albeit at a less bad level.