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	<title>Comments on: Rational and Irrational Exuberance in Property Markets</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 14 Mar 2010 01:21:47 -0500</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Zisler: What Causes Bubbles and Crashes, and What Can We Do to Prevent Them? &#124; The Big Picture</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-235097</link>
		<dc:creator>Zisler: What Causes Bubbles and Crashes, and What Can We Do to Prevent Them? &#124; The Big Picture</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:01:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-235097</guid>
		<description>[...] Zisler Associates (mentioned recently here), included in a recent report on the state&#8217;s finances issued by the California State [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Zisler Associates (mentioned recently here), included in a recent report on the state&#8217;s finances issued by the California State [...]</p>
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		<title>By: wtetterton</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234555</link>
		<dc:creator>wtetterton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:27:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234555</guid>
		<description>Sorry, I didn&#039;t realize</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, I didn&#8217;t realize</p>
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		<title>By: wtetterton</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234553</link>
		<dc:creator>wtetterton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:26:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234553</guid>
		<description>I also just read  David Wilson story on Bloomberg quoting $500-750 Billion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I also just read  David Wilson story on Bloomberg quoting $500-750 Billion.</p>
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		<title>By: wtetterton</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234549</link>
		<dc:creator>wtetterton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:07:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234549</guid>
		<description>Barry,
I think the report says $ 500-750 BILLION not million. 
My source on that is Dow Jones Market Talk

~~~

&lt;strong&gt;BR&lt;/strong&gt;: Fixed! </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barry,<br />
I think the report says $ 500-750 BILLION not million.<br />
My source on that is Dow Jones Market Talk</p>
<p>~~~</p>
<p><strong>BR</strong>: Fixed!</p>
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		<title>By: bsneath</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234537</link>
		<dc:creator>bsneath</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:38:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234537</guid>
		<description>Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Investment bankers are wielding their political influence to override popular support for legislation to break up lenders’ trading and retail operations, economist John Kay said.

“You have a group of politically powerful oligarchs, whom other people hate, but who are entrenched there,” Kay, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics, said in an interview yesterday. “It will require something of a political earthquake” to reduce the bankers’ sway, he said.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) &#8212; Investment bankers are wielding their political influence to override popular support for legislation to break up lenders’ trading and retail operations, economist John Kay said.</p>
<p>“You have a group of politically powerful oligarchs, whom other people hate, but who are entrenched there,” Kay, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics, said in an interview yesterday. “It will require something of a political earthquake” to reduce the bankers’ sway, he said.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Barry</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234466</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234466</guid>
		<description>&quot;Yes, but only IF Chairman Ben and Secretary Tim don’t get their way and don’t devalue the dollar as much as they hope to. They only have to drop the value of the USD by 2011 to below 50% of what it was worth in 2006/2007, and the debt that’s now worth 50% below par will magically be @par again(in NEW dollars of course.)&quot;

Is this really possible? The foreign governments that own trillions in US paper would have to be mad to stand for this...wouldn&#039;t they just print their own money and buy dollars? Look at the following graphic on the cycle of deflation from the Comstock Fund...if they are right, we are right now at &quot;devaluation&quot; and next comes &quot;competitive devaluation&quot; which supports my longstanding notion that we are in a deflationary debt crash.

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/chart-of-day-deflation-cycle.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Yes, but only IF Chairman Ben and Secretary Tim don’t get their way and don’t devalue the dollar as much as they hope to. They only have to drop the value of the USD by 2011 to below 50% of what it was worth in 2006/2007, and the debt that’s now worth 50% below par will magically be @par again(in NEW dollars of course.)&#8221;</p>
<p>Is this really possible? The foreign governments that own trillions in US paper would have to be mad to stand for this&#8230;wouldn&#8217;t they just print their own money and buy dollars? Look at the following graphic on the cycle of deflation from the Comstock Fund&#8230;if they are right, we are right now at &#8220;devaluation&#8221; and next comes &#8220;competitive devaluation&#8221; which supports my longstanding notion that we are in a deflationary debt crash.</p>
<p><a href="http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/chart-of-day-deflation-cycle.html" rel="nofollow">http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/07/chart-of-day-deflation-cycle.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: b_thunder555@yahoo.com</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234465</link>
		<dc:creator>b_thunder555@yahoo.com</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:20:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234465</guid>
		<description>wunsacon:
the Bloomberg article starts with htis:
&quot;Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the central bank could curtail the risk of future liquidity crises by providing a “backstop” to solvent firms with sufficient collateral. &quot;

There&#039;s only one financial company that during the crisis in Sept 2008 would probably fit this description of solvent, but suffering from liquidity collapse.   And it is...  **drum-roll please...**  (you&#039;ve guessed it)    Goldman Sachs!  
And just to remind you, Dudley worked as Chief Economist at GS before going to the NY Fed as chief trader first (talk about those GS &quot;trading&quot; profits) , then taking Timmy&#039;s place.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>wunsacon:<br />
the Bloomberg article starts with htis:<br />
&#8220;Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the central bank could curtail the risk of future liquidity crises by providing a “backstop” to solvent firms with sufficient collateral. &#8221;</p>
<p>There&#8217;s only one financial company that during the crisis in Sept 2008 would probably fit this description of solvent, but suffering from liquidity collapse.   And it is&#8230;  **drum-roll please&#8230;**  (you&#8217;ve guessed it)    Goldman Sachs!<br />
And just to remind you, Dudley worked as Chief Economist at GS before going to the NY Fed as chief trader first (talk about those GS &#8220;trading&#8221; profits) , then taking Timmy&#8217;s place.</p>
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		<title>By: VennData</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234464</link>
		<dc:creator>VennData</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:19:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234464</guid>
		<description>Also in Barron&#039;s...

A Tale of Two Credit Markets  - Randall Forsyth

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125815671249547689.html

&quot;Cisco ...had to pay just 100 basis points ... more than the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ...On the $2 billion, 30-year portion, the spread was just 130 basis points over the borrowing cost of the U.S.  ... So much for the notion that the federal government&#039;s borrowings would crowd out the private sector...&quot;

So much for the  crowding-out crowd... That&#039;s YOU Rick Santelli and your tea-sipping old ladies friends.

And Also from Barron&#039;s  &quot;Sampling of Advisor&#039;s Opinions&quot; from Cuttone and Co. there&#039;s also...

&quot;...Interestingly, many of those who dismissed Dow 10,000 as a meaningless number have gone on to speak about the devastating psychological importance of 10% unemployment...&quot;

...That&#039;s YOU Rick Santelli and your teabagging buddies.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also in Barron&#8217;s&#8230;</p>
<p>A Tale of Two Credit Markets  &#8211; Randall Forsyth</p>
<p><a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125815671249547689.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125815671249547689.html</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Cisco &#8230;had to pay just 100 basis points &#8230; more than the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note &#8230;On the $2 billion, 30-year portion, the spread was just 130 basis points over the borrowing cost of the U.S.  &#8230; So much for the notion that the federal government&#8217;s borrowings would crowd out the private sector&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>So much for the  crowding-out crowd&#8230; That&#8217;s YOU Rick Santelli and your tea-sipping old ladies friends.</p>
<p>And Also from Barron&#8217;s  &#8220;Sampling of Advisor&#8217;s Opinions&#8221; from Cuttone and Co. there&#8217;s also&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230;Interestingly, many of those who dismissed Dow 10,000 as a meaningless number have gone on to speak about the devastating psychological importance of 10% unemployment&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8230;That&#8217;s YOU Rick Santelli and your teabagging buddies.</p>
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		<title>By: b_thunder555@yahoo.com</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234462</link>
		<dc:creator>b_thunder555@yahoo.com</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:11:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234462</guid>
		<description>Zisler wrote:
&quot;Debt that has been or will be marked to market, he predicts, will render many banks, especially of the regional and community kind, insolvent, since much of the debt is worth half or even less of par value.”&quot; - 

Yes, but only IF Chairman Ben and Secretary Tim don&#039;t get their way and don&#039;t devalue the dollar as much as they hope to.  They only have to drop the value of the USD by 2011 to below 50% of what it was worth in 2006/2007, and the debt that&#039;s now worth 50% below par will magically be @par again(in NEW dollars of course.)  
And guess what?  Ben and Tim will be praised for averting the CRE crash, Cramer will scream about the new bull market (with securities priced in worthless dollars,)  and bankers will up their bonuses by 100% in order to &quot;keep up&quot; with bank earnings....  295million of &quot;other americans&quot; - those who draw most of their income from somewhat fixed salary, pension, social security, unemployment benefits, etc (but not from investments banks, CRE, oil futures trading, or insider tips on penny stocks) will grumble, but will go on.  The new American Sheep...  A hurd led by The O-team of Ben, Tim and Larry...  praying that Lloyd &amp; Co. continues to do G*d&#039;s work here on Earth.... booyah indeed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Zisler wrote:<br />
&#8220;Debt that has been or will be marked to market, he predicts, will render many banks, especially of the regional and community kind, insolvent, since much of the debt is worth half or even less of par value.”&#8221; &#8211; </p>
<p>Yes, but only IF Chairman Ben and Secretary Tim don&#8217;t get their way and don&#8217;t devalue the dollar as much as they hope to.  They only have to drop the value of the USD by 2011 to below 50% of what it was worth in 2006/2007, and the debt that&#8217;s now worth 50% below par will magically be @par again(in NEW dollars of course.)<br />
And guess what?  Ben and Tim will be praised for averting the CRE crash, Cramer will scream about the new bull market (with securities priced in worthless dollars,)  and bankers will up their bonuses by 100% in order to &#8220;keep up&#8221; with bank earnings&#8230;.  295million of &#8220;other americans&#8221; &#8211; those who draw most of their income from somewhat fixed salary, pension, social security, unemployment benefits, etc (but not from investments banks, CRE, oil futures trading, or insider tips on penny stocks) will grumble, but will go on.  The new American Sheep&#8230;  A hurd led by The O-team of Ben, Tim and Larry&#8230;  praying that Lloyd &amp; Co. continues to do G*d&#8217;s work here on Earth&#8230;. booyah indeed.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Barry</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/rational-and-irrational-exuberance-in-re/comment-page-1/#comment-234461</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:03:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=43728#comment-234461</guid>
		<description>I will add that bubbles pop at their weakest spots...so while the Federal gov&#039;t thinks they have saved us from the brink with their money printing, I do see on spost that has been left uncovered...state governments...I posted this week an article that 10 states are in deep doo doo, accounting for 30% of the US population...and that list did not even count NY, where the governor stated this week that &quot;We&#039;re going to run out of cash in four and a half weeks. We are going to run out of money. Unless we do something about it, (it will) threaten generations...&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I will add that bubbles pop at their weakest spots&#8230;so while the Federal gov&#8217;t thinks they have saved us from the brink with their money printing, I do see on spost that has been left uncovered&#8230;state governments&#8230;I posted this week an article that 10 states are in deep doo doo, accounting for 30% of the US population&#8230;and that list did not even count NY, where the governor stated this week that &#8220;We&#8217;re going to run out of cash in four and a half weeks. We are going to run out of money. Unless we do something about it, (it will) threaten generations&#8230;&#8221;</p>
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