Some Quick Thoughts about Jobs
While I am waiting for my delayed flight (crew is late arriving form orlando), I have some quik thoughts on NFP.
The data today was pretty ugly — 10.2% Unemployment rate, 17.5% under employed, the highest on record.
The recession that began in December 2007 has now shed over 7.3 million jobs. Out of the total numbers, 5.6 million are out of work six months or longer — 35.6% of the unemployed. That is a record.
The labor continues to shrink. This might be a major demographic realignment of the work force in the US. Just 58.5% of adults are working, the lowest since 1983 (down from~63% 2 years ago).
The most positive news were the gains in temp work. That is a leading indicator.
The bad news? We remain at record lows in weekly hours worked at 33. Consider what that does to future hiring — its devastating to job growth. Why bring on a new body (with all its associated costs) when we can simply add hours to our underutilized work force?
November 6th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Yeah, but at least they are spending their unemployment checks.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
The era of labor-based society is over.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Paul Jones wrote: “The era of labor-based society is over.”
Next up: poverty-based society.
OK, I am done. ahab set his FF lineup. Good luck after this week, ahab. Everybody focus on enjoying the little things.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Regarding the positive in temp work:
Thinking out loud here but could it be the upcoming holiday season? Based on the increase in manufacturing activity and *possible* holiday hiring there could be a major shit-storm if people continue paying off debt/credit rather than spending it.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Not disagreeing with you Paul Jones, but what is the alternative?
I am in agreement that this is a generational change happening. This is the result of the baby-bom generation leaving the work force sooner than they planned, and delevering. They don’t want the huge mortgage anymore, they don’t want the brood of car payments, and they don’t want the heavenly bills they ran up in the 80’s, 90’s, and concluding in the 00’s. 10 years from now, after moderation of the pain and perhaps something that looks like a “recovery”, this economy will look very different. We might not have 10% unemployment, but we will not have 5% unemployment again for a while.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Is Merrill Lynch aping ideas from the commentators on TBP?
I have reason to suspect they are.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
BR opined: This might be a major demographic realignment of the work force in the US.
You bet — those still standing in the private sector will be running until they drop.
Those employed in the Public Sector will do just fine.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
The simple solution is to convert to a 30 hour “full-time” work week. Companies would have to hire more workers which would reduce the unemployment rate. Of course, some people would go apeshit over the lost hours / wages.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Cortez: We probably should get used to less hours and lower wages. Not in terms of hourly rates, as the minimum wage just went up. But an unintended consequence of this downturn might the narrowing of the gap between minimum wage earners and middle class wage earners. I might add that this is something that has been expected for some time.
I’m in favor of 30 hour work weeks, but we don’t need to kid ourselves that this will be the way Europeans do it.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Without a doubt a demographic realignment is occurring and it has been accelerated by the crash in the form of early retirements, early social security etc.
It also could be the exodus of immigrant workers who have shrunk both the top and bottom lines equally.
I suspect though that there is a large component though who are not even looking – in school, staying at home, blogging etc.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
What do we do when the Boomers have all ‘retired’?
Is the labor complex anticipating another dislocation in workforce numbers? Without immigration, US population is probably as to near zero growth as it gets…
November 6th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Wait for the boomers to start slowing down, taking contract or part-time work down and to bring the wages down.
Many have not saved enough and will need to work during “retirement” to make ends meet. Some will only need,5K, others 10K, many 20K… But chances are they’ll be ready to take lower pay just to get this increment.
Guess who will get hit when this happens? Gen-Ex (1965-1975) who bought into the dream of the last 2 decades. They’ll be needing 60-150K to pay the huge mortgae, the daycares, their kids’ university bills and to save at least 10K per year for their retirement… but they won’t be able to get that income because the boomers will be working for peanuts… just to ease the month-end.
Something tells me that only specific types of workers will get good wages, the specialized and those who don’t have to compete agains a boomer.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
@danm: Great. Maybe we Gen-X’ers can all move back in with our parents. That should be a lot of fun.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Since the vast majority of new jobs typically come from small business, a few thoughts:
Small business cannot grow without lending, and lending isn’t happening. Small business cannot grow without retail-feeding-wholesale demand increase, and that isn’t happening much outside the healthcare sector.
Small business is watching what happens with healthcare legislation. If healthcare legislation passes along with its current financial structure, look for a significant increase in the use of contract/temp labor, to avoid FTE healthcare obligations.
The demographic shift? A significant increase in the itinerant workforce. We will work, when we can, but we will not risk a home purchase.
Personal savings rate will increase, discretionary spending will decrease.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
France legislated a reduced work week with the idea that it would encourage hiring – unfortunately they forgot to remove all of the other systemic barriers that discourage it. Net result: shorter work week but fewer people with permanent jobs.
It could be interesting to see what would happen in the US, with its far more flexible labour market, if people decide that 30 hours a week is okay.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Mannwich:
Actually we’ve been thinking of building a multi-generational home. We’ve talked about it with our parents and they laughed in our face… They’re boomers, they’re going to live forever, healthy of course.
When I was in University, I was taking a demographics class and our teacher kept on talking about the increase in life expectancy. I reminded him that it was a weighted average so those increasing the life expectancy were our grandparents and the young ones thanks to vaccinations. I theorized that life expectancy could decrease with our generation. No one agreed.
Anyway, wouldn’t it be funny if boomers outlived us?
~~~~
Small business cannot grow without lending, and lending isn’t happening.
I have my own business. o debt. Service business.
Wait until a whack of boomers become consultants.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
danm:
As a BB, I cannot imagine how crusty and cranky I’ll be if I outlive you X-ers. God help us all.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
danm:
congrats on the zero debt!
gonna be tough for “goods” businesses to grow without lending though.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
@danm: Well, no, I don’t think that would be funny at all. Unfortunately even though they’ve already lived the bulk of their lives, some boomers and retirees (like most groups, but they might be the worst in this regard) don’t want to give up ANYTHING for the betterment of the country, and thus their own children and grandchildren. We’ve been brainwashed to believe that nobody has to sacrifice anything in this country for the good of the country (while waving U.S. flags, of course), well, except for our troops overseas, whom mostly everyone just ignores now (except for some flag lapins, car stickers and the obligatory appearance at professional sporting events).
By the way, my in-laws have a great little cabin the mountains. When this crisis started, I half-jokingly said that maybe we should winter-ize/expand it so that the whole extended family could live there, as we all could end up living together under necessity. They didn’t think that I was partly serious at all.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
crosey:
I agree for goods. But something tells me we’re going to see lots of consulting businesses popping up and they don’t need debt.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
No jobs, no economy, no such thing as a jobless recovery. Pretty simple unless your a moron cheerleader on CNBC or in the White House.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
And all the consulting businesses and 20 hour per week workers are going to add fuel to the problem that we have at this moment: too many mouths to feed and not enough feed to go around. 10% unemployment after years of subdued unemployment, and lack of organic job growth, will do that to ya.
We live longer, but we don’t live better. My dad checked out suddenly at age 53, as an employee and husband, father with grown children, doing what he loved to do. I’m not sure that was so bad after all….
November 6th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Barry, I think you missed the real bad news of these job numbers. The eventual employment rebound is going to be slow and unemployment will remain high precisely because of the Big Government policy direction we’re witnessing. Our new energy policy and impending tax increases are just two examples of job killers.
Bush was no fiscal conservative, but this administration and their friends in congress actually hate the private sector. They believe companies are ever blooming money trees perpetually ripe for the picking, no matter their punitive policies.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
“Out of the total numbers, 5.6 million are out of work six months or longer — 35.6% of the unemployed.”
Correction…that’s nearly 77%.
@ Manny–”don’t want to give up ANYTHING for the betterment of the country,”
Based on the way the CPI was calculated before 1990, Social Security recipients have since given up 1/2 of their retirement benefits for the “betterment of the country”. Place the blame on those responsible; Uncle Sam.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
The market for US goods and services is shrinking. How much the credit contraction is responsible versus other factors is perhaps an interesting question.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
All I know is at age 39, my wife and I are savign our as_s off. 20 to 25% of gross per year. I have really no picture of what the future will hold at this point.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
We’ve been brainwashed to believe that nobody has to sacrifice anything in this country for the good of the country (while waving U.S. flags, of course), well, except for our troops overseas, whom mostly everyone just ignores now (except for some flag lapins, car stickers and the obligatory appearance at professional sporting events).
———–
I keep on boomer bashing but I do realize that if I were a boomer, I’d probably think the same way. We are to some extent a product of out time.
But on that note, I have never been brainwashed in that matter. I’ve had an easy life so I really don’t understand why I’m such a cynic but I can say that everyone around me has bough into the independence thing, thinking that soceity can keep on paying for retirees.
My paternal grandfather sold his butter factory when government started to stick its nose in the dairy products. He retired when rates peaked and bought a couple of annuities from different life insurers retired. Being safe I guess. He lived to 93, so he got way more in old age security than he ever paid in.
A few years, the insurance companies demutualized so he got shares from his policies. 100 years of reserves distributed to the current shareholders/annuitants. Considering he lived to 93, he was already a thorn the insurance company’s side when he received those.
All this to say that obviously there is a free lunch for some people, but it can’t be generalized to everybody over a long period of time.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
All I know is at age 39, my wife and I are savign our as_s off. 20 to 25% of gross per year. I have really no picture of what the future will hold at this point.
——–
We’re doing the same thing and keep on getting the feeling that we’ll get screwed for doing it!
November 6th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
@Pat G: It’s not just boomers and retirees, but they’re the worst ones, in my mind. They’ve set the tone. Everyone else is following, digging our heels in because nobody is being honest with all of us about the sacrifices we’ll all be making INVOLUNTARILY down the road if we don’t do it VOLUNTARILY now.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
My mom and MIL keep on complaining about taxes…according to them, they’ve done their share to society, they’ve paid their dues and since they’re now on a fixed income, government should cut them some slack.
Every time I hear the rant I chuckle (inside of course), knowing they really have no clue of what’s coming their way.
One day I could not help myself and asked why then, if they had paid their dues, there was this huge government debt outstanding and the infrastrucutre was disintegrating.
It’s the others who have been overspending.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Oh yes… it was also because of the politicians lining their pockets and those pesky civil servants. LOL
November 6th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
@danm: That about sums it up. We’re all angry at “others” who have been irresponsible, and, in particular, blame our leaders that WE elected into office time and time again to represent US. Until we all start to look around at each other (and in the mirror) and understand that we all have only ourselves to blame, we are nowhere and nothing will be fixed.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
@Mannwich:
Yup. I was angry for a while but I’m finally letting go and just managing my expectations. I now realize that I was a weirdo who saw it coming but could not expect the to see it. Just human nature.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
I was a weirdo who saw it coming but could not expect the others to see it.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
@danm: I’m slowly getting there as well, but every time I get close to the resigned acceptance camp, some new “news” lurches me back into frustration/anger/disbelief mode. It’s all a process.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Interesting blather about boomers. So sorry you see the older generation as part of the problem, youngsters. I suspect you’d find if you lived beneath your means, you’d be happy all your life.
…The whole problem has nothing to do with age. The problem is debt. It is a Four letter word……Your is four letters, Debt is four letters…
As far as your indebted government is concerned, I have just now come to realize that only Boomers vote, so obviously the Boomer government of Obama is their fault too.
….must be the onset on senility. Back to my room…
November 6th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
@ Manny
You seem to be inferring that the Social Security Act was somehow specifically designed for the Baby Boomers. The Act was signed into law in 1935 and the first Baby Boomer wasn’t born until 1946 or 11 years later. Social Security is and continues to be a giant ponzi scheme run by the USG. For example; for years benefits were given to alcoholics and drug addicts who were perceived as “disabled” allthough this was certainly a disability of choice. Routinely, illegal immigrants have been approved as well. The first Baby Boomer was not eligible for Social Security retirement until last year. The Social Security system was in shambles way before that. My suggestion; means test Social Security. People making a pile of money in other retirement benefits should not be eligible for Social Security too. Like CEOs…
November 6th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
@Bruce: Excuse me? I’m a saver, responsible with my money, and am getting screwed in many ways too, but when I see hysterical retirees demonstrating in big numbers against “gov’t-run healthcare” when they are ON gov’t-run healthcare, my hypocrisy meter almost breaks it goes so far off the the scales. It tells me they either haven’t a clue of the problems this country faces (again, we’re all to blame to varying degrees here) or they don’t care because they “got theirs” and want to keep it at all costs, even to other generations and the country they claim to love as a whole. All I’m saying is that nobody (meaning every generation) wants to sacrifice anything anymore. That’s all well and good (well, not it’s not), but it’s coming to a town near all of us whether we like it or not.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
@ Manny
You know, I agree with your “sacrifice” theory but why does it always start with those at the bottom of the food chain? Those who can least afford the changes? For example, why is there such resentment to a national health care plan which includes a “public option”? I’ll answer that. Because HMOs would have to compete with the USG which would drive down the prices they charge for services and consequently the incomes paid to all those health care professionals and themselves. Right now, people in the U.S. pay more for health care services and prescription drugs than anyone else in the world. Yet, health care in the U.S. ranks about 35th versus all other countries. Does that sound like we’re getting good bang for our buck? I don’t think so…
November 6th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
I did look up the definition of “Boomer” in B in T’s unabridged dictionary of the internet:
Boomer= Straw Man..
November 6th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Boomers are responsible for their individual behavior. As a cohort, not so much. Their aggregate effect is pronounced and demands contemplation, but it is one of piece of a dynamic.
Are health care costs a function of how we finance the provision of medical infrastructure and services?
FINANCE…turning the affordable into onerous generational debt in 72 easy installments! Get yours today!*
*Nevermind, we already gave to you- a lot.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
@Mannwich and danm
I am past the point of anger – hence very little posts anymore. Nothing seems to bother or surprise anymore. Every bit of news that comes out and is twisted to pump the markets up again makes me giggle. In the end I will have the last laugh and I’ll be running all the way to the bank, er, mattress.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
IMO, all the bitching about socialized health care is a waste of time. You can’t fight demographics and economics. The population is getting older and there is not enough money saved up.
In 10 years, you’re going to have even more people on the public plan as the population ages, gets older and more become uninsurable.
And with less people, the private side will shrink unless it cuts costs massively.
One huge reason why governement can not outright say health care will be socialized is because they are still propping up the financial system. They already have a lot on their plates right now with banks failing left right and cnetre, imagine if they had failing insurance companies on top of it.
Thin of it, the day health care is pronounced socialized, insurance cos tank. And that’s not even counting the impact it would have the health care sector stocks.
But it’s coming, and that’s why the stock market will go through a shakeout.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Just wait until next year when the public sector starts shedding jobs like mad. Supporting the states with part of the stimulus bill that saved a ton of jobs here in Michigan. Of course we’ve got a budget deficit like no other.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
@davossherman
>> No jobs, no economy, no such thing as a jobless recovery.
Uh, no. That’s exactly what we had from 2003-07 and the Dow went to 14,000 while everyone spent like drunken sailors. Obama/Geitner/Summers/Bernanke trying to pull that rabbit out of the hat a second time.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Average job loss per month last 4 months per CES – 217,000 and falling
Average job loss per month last 4 months per CPS – 480,000 and rising
Which do you believe?
November 6th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
@ danm–”They already have a lot on their plates right now with banks failing left right and cnetre,”
Yep, that money could have been better spent if it had gone into shoring up the Social Security and Medicare instead, considering that the population is aging AND they knew they’d been spending all the money taken from incomes for those purposes over the years. It speaks to the heart of their allegiance. It’s apparently not “the people”.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
michn – “pull that rabbit out of the hat a second time.”
Yea then we can make rabbit stew.
Bsnesth – Both
November 6th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
@ jonpublic–”Of course we’ve got a budget deficit like no other.”
California’s is worse. Unemployment is the highest in Michigan. And like you, I am from there and it always seemed to me that Michigan’s unemployment was high. No where near what it is now.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Blaming Obama for not getting the colossal, unprecedented mess he inherited 10 months ago fixed by now borders on the ridiculous.
To be sure, it’s disappointing that the Obama Administration didn’t address meaningful financial industry reform before healthcare reform, and the timid steps it is taking to do so now are distressing. But let’s be clear- current economic conditions have little to do with Obama’s policies, which in most cases have not yet been implemented, and where they have been, are just starting to have meaningful effects.
Honestly, what would lead anyone to believe that the economy would be doing better if McCain had been elected and taken a laissez faire (i.e. no stimulus) approach? At least deficit spending on the stimulus does our country some real good, at least in the short term, compared to spending the same amount on the Iraq war. And does anyone really think McCain would have implemented meaningful reform of the financial industry?
The Bush Administration failed to effectively address any of the major structural problems facing our economy that were on his plate when he got elected- aging boomers and healthcare costs, Social Security, energy dependence, etc. Instead he exacerbated them with a combination of tax cuts, further deregulation, an unnecessary trillion dollar war in Iraq and a lack of attention to the situation in Afghanistan.
Clinton did a relatively good job of digging us out of the financial hole that Reagan put us in, but also unfortunately bought into some policies that originated with Republicans- financial industry deregulation, outsourcing of manufacturing jobs via NAFTA, and keeping Greenspan at the helm of the Federal Reserve. In other instances his efforts at reform were hamstrung by the Republican Congress after 1994. So Democrats are partially culpable for our current situation, but to a much smaller degree than Republicans.
In short, Obama inherited a raft of interconnected challenges that in many cases predated the Bush Administration, but which that administration greatly exacerbated, especially the meltdown of the financial industry. To reiterate, pointing the finger at Obama for not yet effectively these challenges after 10 months in office is ludicrous. And the current crop of Republicans and their selfish, destructive and nihilistic approach to these issues are just making things worse.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
15% now their own boss:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/15-are-now-their-own-boss-air-canada-says-worst-over/article1353683/
+ Good interactive chart
November 6th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
“To reiterate, pointing the finger at Obama for not yet effectively these challenges after 10 months in office is ludicrous. And the current crop of Republicans and their selfish, destructive and nihilistic approach to these issues are just making things worse.”
wow- i guess you don’t have an agenda-
let’s see if i got it right- Democrats = GOOD, Republicans = BAD
alright- thanks for your input-
move along now- we’ve heard that song and dance before
November 6th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
There is a simple explanation for the increase in temps – someone has to process the unemployment claims.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Might as well condense it down to ONE QUICK THOUGHT ABOUT JOBS…
Jobs: You ain’t gettin’ one (in either sense)
Now I’ll just blow out as I blew in… Arrividerci
November 6th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
In the long run, we are all temps.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
@ ahab
Let’s make it simpler; Democrats + Republicans = BAD. They are “entrenched” parties who have been in power for way longer than they have deserved. We need someone with common sense, who can not be bought. Someone elected by the people through the proxy process.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
“In the long run, we are all temps.’
Winston- so true – so true- very Zen
cv-
I don’t get it jobs- blowing?
what are you trying to say
November 6th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
pat g-
i’ll make it even easier-
politicians suck- the end
November 6th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Since most of us with employment at present are paid in US dollars, perhaps this article from the 5th will be of interest:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/Dollar-shortage-in-Chinas-foreign-exchange-market/articleshow/5200518.cms
Excerpt:
=”The situation is likely to worsen in coming months as banks don’t want to retain dollars and some of their clients are borrowing dollars to conduct arbitrage trading.” The People’s Bank of China has kept the yuan at a virtual peg against the dollar since July 2008, confined to a range of only about 100 pips, partly to help insulate China’s exports from the turmoil of the global financial crisis.=
November 6th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
There is a simple explanation for the increase in temps – someone has to process the unemployment claims
———-
And the H1N1 brochures and vaccinations.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
@ ahab
That’s simplest.
@ danm
lol! Better late than never re; the vaccine. How many U.S. dead now? Who priortizes the “TO DO” list in this country?
November 6th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
“The most positive news were the gains in temp work. That is a leading indicator.”
How utterly true. I always found that when my employment status changed from “full-time” to “temporary” that it was a leading indicator that my car would likely be repossessed.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
“I always found that when my employment status changed from “full-time” to “temporary” that it was a leading indicator that my car would likely be repossessed.”
LMAO-
you are a funny dude Winston
November 6th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Back in the year 2000, one of the bulls’ favorite arguments was that the Baby Boomers wouldn’t start retiring in large numbers until 2010, so that meant the stock market had clear upward sailing for another 10 years! How’d that work out? And now that 2010 is upon us, i’m hearing less about it than i was 10 years ago.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
ZH weighs in on the Corporate Raider, I mean, Private Equity industry. Things not looking too green shooty. When do they get their bailout? Great post.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/disastrous-performance-private-equity-top-10-lbos-6-are-distress-4-have-defaulted
November 6th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
@ Winston
You are definetly on a roll tonight; 7:05, 7:10 & 7:48 posts. Too funny.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
Friday Night Music.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/friday-night-music-neal-fox-fed
November 6th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
US jobs and the world
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/11/06/a-global-problem-with-no-solution/
November 6th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Being one of the 10.2% as of 3 weeks ago I will report the following:
I’m an architect and worked in a large international firm. Our office here in NY was a healthy and vibrant 50 on 9/01/08 right before the Wall St. tsunami hit and as of the last go around had been whittled down to 13. The writing was on the wall for myself way back in March, but being as prudent as possible the partners tried to keep as many of us as they could for as long as they could. The whole time things kept getting more and more grim- 10% pay cuts went around and then increased benefit burdens etc… and of course, we were asked to take a lot of vacation- not only because there was less and less work to bill, but to reduce the financial liability the firm had in carrying over the excess/unused vacation time. This is a pertinent point to Barry’s post here-32 hours was more like my typical week this summer and remains so for those remaining.
Why is there no work?
No lending.
Developers cannot get loans for future projects. Of course, in our absurdly overbuilt state right now there seems little need for new real estate, and this seems only just, but the fact that some of our better clients with (to my knowledge) sterling reputations were having trouble was quite disturbing.
Meanwhile, I wistfully look forward to that first unemployment check of $405.00 while I figure out what to do next with my 25 years of experience. I’d volunteer to design the GWBush presidential library but Bob Stern already (shamelessly) took that commission. I don’t think W fans would appreciate my version- and yes- I blame this whole mess on Bush successfully reaching the fruition of Reaganism- the current income tax rates are absurdly slanted towards the top %.
November 7th, 2009 at 12:14 am
Paul,
that sounds horrible and very similar to my experiences. I’ll be with you in a couple of months.
I guess it could be worse, witness the horror of this:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/os-shooting-reported-downtown-orlando-20091106,0,7958763.story
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/orl-jason-rodriguez-bio-orlando-shooting,0,2152879.story
November 7th, 2009 at 1:03 am
Tom K:
Why would someone who supposedly hates the private sector so much give the money he has to the banksters? Why would he extend that wasteful home buyers tax credit? You’re letting ideology get in the way of basing your opinions on fact.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Since 2000 the US population has grown by 11%, but in that time period we have actually had a net decrease in private sector jobs.
Fortune Magazine…
November 7th, 2009 at 8:34 am
Bruce:
I just used the Census data and the total population has increased by 8.9%.
The 20-70 has increased by over 11%, which is normal because in the 00’s we hit the peak in workers/dependant. And the number of dependants starts to go up from now on.
So it’s a sad state that we didn’t even have good employment numbers when the ratio was at its best.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:45 am
willid3 Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
US jobs and the world
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/11/06/a-global-problem-with-no-solution/
This is a very good article. El Erian and Salmon understand what is going on structurally within our economy where most people continue to cling onto past circumstances and are apparently incapable of discerning the profound change that we are undergoing.
In a nutshell, we will never again have full employment until our dollar is significantly devalued. And the converse, we will significantly devalue our dollar in order to again have full employment.
But even with that, we are in for rough times. China views us with contempt. They are going to get every advantage they can from us in the way of technology transfer and capital investment, but once they are ready to go it on their own, they will abandon the USA. Free and open trade will never be on their agenda. There will come the time in the future when China wants to revalue its currency, however they will do so with barriers to limit imports on to essential commodities they cannot produce domestically. Then we will lose the ability to buy imported goods at low cost while still having the world’s largest market closed to our exports. (If this paragraph doesn’t make sense to you today, save it and read it again about 10 years from now.)
November 7th, 2009 at 8:59 am
@Paul S.
Wow, I feel your pain while fortunately not having to go through it….yet. Unfortunately, you are in an industry that was pumped up on steroids thanks to Uncle Greenspanic and the withdrawal could go on for years.
Have you thought about changing your career path for at least a short period? If not what about foreign work? There are a lot of other countries that might be hiring someone of your expertise. It may not be American rates but it could be a lot better than unemployment and it may be a cool way to get a paid vacation.
The best thing about your experience is that it is mainly in your head and thus portable. You probably don’t even need to leave your house to do it. That could come in very useful for you. I’m throwing up hail Mary’s here in case you’ve already burnt your brain looking for ideas so don’t be afraid to shoot me down if my aim is far off
November 7th, 2009 at 10:25 am
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/06/news/economy/jobless.recovery.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009110614
Stop the ‘jobless recovery’ madness!
“Because output fell so sharply following the oil shock and Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, some pundits are banking on a sharp rebound.
But job and wage growth have been weak for a decade. Total private sector employment has dropped since the Yankees held their previous victory parade, in 2000.
That means there has been no net private sector job growth over a nine-year span where the U.S. population expanded by 11%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “
November 7th, 2009 at 11:34 am
“Had John McCain won that election, the present G.D.P. in the United States would have been even lower than it is now by more than 15 percent. ” more political, economic fodder via Infection Greed (i can’t read the papers, i need blogs to direct me) http://bit.ly/3xG7QL
another gem from Samuelson:
“ever since the year 1000 A.D., export-led growth has been the rule whenever an educatable low-wage population has begun to imitate the technology of a more advanced nation, and thus out-compete the industries of the affluent regions.” it’s borrow more money and consume to our demise!
November 7th, 2009 at 11:35 am
yikes Infectious Greed
November 8th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Going through the numbers, there are quite a few interesting observations to be made:
· Unemployment among full time workers (i.e those desirous of working full time or are on lay off from full time job) has crossed 11% mark to reach 11.1%
· 156,000 additional people remained unemployed for more than 26 weeks, thereby making them ineligible for unemployment insurance
· In last one year, an additional 3.2 million people have stopped receiving unemployment allowance
· Of the total unemployed, currently 35.6% of them are not getting any allowance
· The average duration of unemployment has gone upto 26.9%, the highest ever recorded
What this means is that recovery (or some acceptable form of it) will only be possible if the stimulus package continues. Withdrawal of stimulus will affect likely nascent recovery.