Tonight, I am winging my way to Detroit, where I am one of the speakers at the Detroit Jewish Book Fair tomorrow, one of the oldest and largest of its kind.
Meanwhile, we have not had an Open Thread in a while.
So what’s on your minds? No holds barred, post what you want, no limitations (please be civil).
~~~
What say ye?
"While money doesn't buy love, it puts you in a great bargaining position." —Anonymous
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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November 5th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
how long before they get into this SOB’s computer to let us know if he’s a terrorist or not?
this is a similar attack to the afghan policeman who killed the British soldiers that trained him.
is this a new tactic that military/ law enforcement have to gird themselves against?
sickening either way
November 5th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Ritholtz, my future ex-wife Maureen wrote about Malcolm Gladwell for The Nation here, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091123/tkacik. This sweet chick loves to write and write and write. Anyhoo, Maureen sent an email to family and friends announcing her new article and asking them to “click the link”. Well, I took a look at the distribution list and noticed that you were on it, along with John Carney, Nassim Nicolas Taleb, Felix Salmon, and Andrew Ross Sorkin. But what I really loved about that list was that I was the only one on it with a pseudonym.
And oh, should I start Beanie Wells over Tim Hightower at the flex against ahab?
November 5th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Anyone want to sponsor a UNC undergrad business student in the job market? Now accepting all offers…
November 5th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
I noticed the article Steve posted earlier, I am sure you all did, about Fannie’s loss and the billions in additional money we are giving them. I know you guys think I’m a broken record about how we get out of the Keynesian stimulus we are in, but there seems to be an undercurrent of tax increases everywhere now. Even the county I live in, which is a retirement community and has extra low tax rates, came out this week and said property taxes will go up starting the first of the year. Assuming we don’t default, we will increase taxes everywhere to pay for public pensions, stimulus, two wars, perhaps more fuel taxes, maybe a VAT, who knows…
I have been surprised by the extent of global QE and now also find it interesting that Australia and Norway have started to tighten. It appears to me that GB and the USA have probably been the last to stabilize, and this Great Recession still has me wondering if government stimulus isn’t the entire reason.
I enjoy being devil’s advocate, especially here, so I am wondering:
Could we have a second leg down just in time for higher taxes?
November 5th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Um, Barry, don’t you think it would be worthwhile to comment on this post from Yves?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/goldman-fed-citi-getting-preferential-allotments-of-h1n1-vaccine.html
“Goldman, Fed, Citi Getting Preferential Allotments of H1N1 Vaccine”
And I second CNBC Sucks’ awesoming of the Nation’s Gladwell piece.
November 5th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
tlynk-
hmmm ….. all offers-
male or female?
November 5th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
French scientists have cured now, for 3 years, the genetic anomaly that causes the syndrome that the Lorenzo’s Oil movie was based on. This has occured from what I heard today in one child. If so, this is amazing progress in genetic science. A virus was used to spread the proper gene sequence, and approximately 20% of her DNA was transformed. This, apparently, is enough to halt the progression of the disease.
November 5th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
how long before WAR. can’t be that far off.
November 5th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
The Newsweek article states:
“If we feed the biology and manage grasslands appropriately, we could sequester as much carbon as we emit,” says Timothy LaSalle, CEO of the Rodale Institute, who presented at two summits. The political clash is this: if you tell people soils can be managed to suck up lots of our carbon emissions, it sounds like a get-out-of-jail-free card, and could decrease what little enthusiasm there is for reducing those emissions—as one of Gore’s assistants told LaSalle in asking him to dial down his estimate. (He didn’t.)
So there you have it – LaSalle proposed a way of solving the CO2 issue but was basically told to shove it by Gore’s team because the methods he advocated would eliminate the need for what Gore and his cronies are really pursuing, nightmare regulation, taxation, and control over American’s lives, along with billions of dollars flooding into the coffers of Gore and the rest of the “carbon billionaire” globalists via the carbon trading systems they own.
“Could it be that Mr Gore and his team want the US economy and its free market system to be overturned regardless of the science? Could it be that they do not want to know about any science that does not allow them to tax and interfere in the lives of every American?” ask Ann McElhinney and Phelim McAleer.
“This is an outrageous interference in science for a political purpose. But what is the political purpose? Al Gore has called for stopping the use of fossil fuels and the complete restructuring of the economy in the US within ten years but when offered a chance to remove “harmful” CO2 from the atmosphere his team tries to change the science.”
That’s because Gore doesn’t give a damn about the science and he doesn’t give a damn about the environment. Like the rest of the vultures circling around the rich pickings of the global warming fraud, his only interest is in feasting on the corpse of the U.S. economy and the American taxpayer once he manages to ram though the cap and trade scam that will enrich the very carbon trading systems he owns…”
http://noteviljustwrong.com/blog/general/247-gore-urges-scientist-to-change-science-to-suit-his-alarmist-agenda
http://www.newsweek.com/id/220552/output/print
November 5th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Buffet buys BNSF while slicing (dicing?) NetJets……(wait till their bloated fleet hit the market, writedowns bigtime)
NetJets Fires 495 Pilots Amid Slowdown in Flights
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=axpOtX9rEJ5s
Going to be a long 18-24 months before GA sees any daylight.
Perhaps I should augment my flight skills with learning how to sell?:
Selling A#sholes
Two businessmen in Scottsdale were sitting down for a break in their soon-to-be new store.
As yet the store wasn’t ready, with only a few shelves set up.
One said to the other, ‘I bet any minute now some old fart is going to walk by, put his face to the window, and ask what we’re selling.’ No sooner were the words out of his mouth when, sure enough, a curious senior walked to the window, had a peek, and in a soft voice asked “What are you sellin’ here?”
One of the men replied sarcastically,
“We’re selling a#s-holes.”
Without skipping a beat, the old timer said,
“You’re doing well. Only two left.”
November 5th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
“how long before WAR. can’t be that far off.”
last i checked HH we’re in a couple wars already-
elaborate- war with whom?
November 5th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Each month the BLS reports the consumer price index. The most oft-mentioned measure is the 12 month annual change, which most recently has been reported as -1.3%.
However, if one gets the detailed report from the BLS the change since the beginning of the year is also reported and tells a very different story: Since January, CPI-U is UP 2.8% and CPI-W is UP 3.2% (through September 2009).
Barry, what do you think will happen when the BLS begins reporting annual inflation of 3% or more? I see this happening in the next couple of reports. By the time the December 2009 numbers are reported we should be swing from -1.3% now to +3.5%.
Does this suggest any trading opportunities to you?
November 5th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
@ahab
we’ve got people in harm’s way but much of what’s taking place cannot be classified as war in a traditional sense, a lot of it is babysitting/construction/regional dispute settlement.
this is unfortunate, but this country has been trivializing both the term and the concept of “war” for quite sometime, eg: the war on drugs, the war on illiteracy, the war on cellulite etc.
November 5th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Anyone read Wiedemer’s book ‘Aftershock’ yet? If so, any thoughts on his prediction of the coming blowup of the dollar and US gov. debt bubbles?
November 5th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
If 25% of the population is die hard conservative and if 25% of the population is died in the wool liberal, wouldn’t it be nice if the other 50% formed a new political party? Just saying…..
November 5th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
I’m currently reading ““In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic,” by David Wessel. I’m only about 30 pages in but so far it’s excellent. The writing is immediately engaging, pulling you along like a race horse. It’s also pretty clear he had some interesting access. Oh, and he quotes bloggers
November 5th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
BR…in your travels you might have missed this from NYT…. and given you are a Lawyer and a Re-Regulation guy, thought you’d find it interesting how the Lobbyists are going after Barney Frank.
——————
November 3, 2009
States Are Pondering Fraud Suits Against Banks
By DAVID STREITFELD and JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF
PHOENIX — Newly empowered by the Supreme Court, the attorneys general of several states hit hard by the housing collapse are exploring consumer fraud suits against major mortgage lenders.
Frustrated by the banks’ inability or unwillingness to stop an avalanche of foreclosures, the states are considering lawsuits over the creation and marketing of millions of bad loans as well as the dismal pace of mortgage modifications.
Such cases would have been impossible until recently, because federal regulators had exclusive oversight of national banks. But a 5-to-4 Supreme Court decision in June allowed the states to exercise their own supervision, giving them significant leverage.
“We tried to use the tool to be persuasive with the banks,” Arizona’s attorney general, Terry Goddard, said in an interview. “But their waterfall of excuses, the abysmal numbers of modifications, tells us persuasion is not working.”-SNIP-
The Clearing House decision was not a full-fledged victory for the states. The decision limits their subpoena power. While it is now easier to bring cases in court, it might be harder to develop them in the first place.
-snip-
If the banking industry has its way, the victory will not be a permanent one.
In Washington, the banks are lobbying hard to try to block the states from becoming more aggressive. Lobbyists have urged lawmakers to pre-empt state rules that are more restrictive than federal laws. The Obama administration has opposed those changes.
Two weeks ago, the House Financial Services Committee voted to give the federal government the power to block states from regulating large national banks in some circumstances. Under the compromise, the Comptroller of the Currency would be able to override the states, but only after finding that the state law significantly interfered with federal regulatory policies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/business/03suits.html?pagewanted=print
November 5th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
bsneath-
party’s evolve- neither the Republican nor the Democrat party are what they were in years past-
it really comes down to a TRUE leader who make some hard choices-
not a charlatan getting elected on the “change” mantra-
then not delivering- and-
only instead- continuing the charade
November 5th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
@CNBC Sucks Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Ritholtz, my future ex-wife Maureen wrote about Malcolm Gladwell for The Nation here, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091123/tkacik. This sweet chick loves to write and write and write. Anyhoo, Maureen sent an email to family and friends announcing her new article and asking them to “click the link”.
———-
Ahh…….. GreatCNBCSUCKS….. !
Knew there was a reasonable guy in that flashy “Fashion Foward” Suit!
I hope she wasn’t an “EX” because of who publishes her writings. Glad you two are getting back together.
Is there hope?
And, “The Nation” is good stuff read. Article of her’s from scan looks good, too. Thanks.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
TakBak04,
you’ll like this, no?
Dear Nation Friend:
DONATE TODAY…
… and we’ll send you info on how to join a conference call with JEREMY SCAHILL on November 9
Is investigative reporting dead?
The short answer is: Hell no! At least for now.
When it comes to investigative reporting, The Nation has few peers. That’s because people like you step up to the plate to help fund…
Our investigation into Blackwater, USA. Jeremy Scahill has been exposing the terrifying actions of Blackwater for years and the story has finally started to break through to the mainstream press, raising tough questions about why the Obama administration continues to renew Blackwater contracts.
Our investigation into post-Katrina vigilante violence in New Orleans. A.C. Thompson’s exposé in The Nation last December led to an FBI raid of the New Orleans Police Department homicide unit to seize police records of alleged vigilante shootings. The killings, reported The New York Times, “[were] not investigated by the authorities until an article about it appeared in The Nation.” Both incidents are now under “multiple investigations,” and justice could be at hand.
Here at The Nation, we continue to investigate what mainstream corporate media flinches from looking into. We know you expect nothing less. And we know that funding watchdog investigative reporters like A.C. Thompson and Jeremy Scahill can literally help change our nation’s history. But here’s the rub — without financial support from our Nation Associates, you — and the rest of our countrymen and women — would never read this courageous reporting.
Won’t you give a gift today to keep this investigative reporting going strong?
In the face of Blackwater, vigilante shootings and financial scandals, our goal for the year ahead is to increase our investigative reporting, not cut back. But with a million dollar deficit, thanks to a $600,000 postal increase and plummeting ad revenues, without your critical help cutbacks may be inevitable.
Donate today, and we’ll send you information on how to join me on a special donors-only conference call on November 9th with Jeremy Scahill on his latest findings on Blackwater.
Please make a donation today. And thank you!
Sincerely,
Katrina vanden Heuvel
Editor & Publisher, The Nation
~~
though, if she, really, wanted to right her Balance Sheet, she’d take a page from the ‘hated’ Capitalists, use the ‘low-interest-rate enviro to her advantage, and offer 3% 12-month ‘Deposit Notes’ to her readership..
~~
CFR admits false scarcity tactic to get people to take the H1N1 vaccine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ly5DR_3D_mA
November 5th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
The fake FMN / FRE smoke and mirrors that KD at market-ticker tore into today is the paradigm of the “45 minutes after the ‘berg on the top deck of the Titanic” time frame. Who the survivors are is not so apparent just now to many jockeying for position in the Financial Services industry where they make no security but squeeze money out of numbers on paper. Our elected reps are involved in business as usual: selling the public what it wants to hear..to wit: sure, we can put the ticket in the drawer; the FED got enough Realty/Reality to make it right. That Disneyland is selling is no surprise, that we are going Japanese until GS, JPM, DB, SocGen can package it off to the TPers and soon-to-fail pension plans is not so visible, but as sure as Japan’s lost decades. Then of course in the US we’ll start over again, just like game plan of Central Banking has always worked.
The money’s always there, just the pockets change.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
@CNBC: Ahhh, you are human. Thanks for sharing. Sorry. She’s a pretty damn good writer.
As far as the rest of the crap going on right now. ???
Tip of the iceberg: Army major (a psychiatrist) creates quire a stir at Fort Hood.
Pitchforks and torches. Stress.
Who the fuck is minding the store?
Meanwhile the current administration, likely in the aftermath to be deemed the second most corrupt administration after Lincoln, continues to posture before cameras.
Why does he always look like he’s tasting something bad?
Because he’s an elite in commoners’ clothes.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
@bsneath Says:
November 5th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
If 25% of the population is die hard conservative and if 25% of the population is died in the wool liberal, wouldn’t it be nice if the other 50% formed a new political party? Just saying…..
————–
Good thought there……..ayyyy..
November 5th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Comment of the day on Matt Taibbi rant about GS citing Jesus in support of obscene bonuses:
“That is some serious Marie Antoinette bullshit right there. These objectivist pinheads are 5% unemployment away from public beheading and they have the nerve to spew crap like this?”
After reading Yves post about the vaccine going to the big Wall Street firms, it sounds even more correct.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
MEH
The Newsweek article states:
“The potential for soils to absorb more of the CO2 that our utilities, factories, and vehicles spew poses a dilemma for Gore, one of two where his scientific and political instincts collide. With better management, soils could sequester much more carbon than they do now. The question is how much more. Soils scientist Rattan Lal of Ohio State University was surprised to get a call last summer (”Vice President Gore would like to talk to you”) that began, “I have 15 or 20 questions about soils and climate for you.” Lal calculates that if more farmers adopted mulching, no-till farming, and the use of cover crops and manure, 3,700 million acres worldwide could sequester 1 gigaton per year of CO2, roughly 12 percent of annual global emissions. Other experts are even more sanguine. “If we feed the biology and manage grasslands appropriately, we could sequester as much carbon as we emit,” says Timothy LaSalle, CEO of the Rodale Institute, who presented at two summits. The political clash is this: if you tell people soils can be managed to suck up lots of our carbon emissions, it sounds like a get-out-of-jail-free card, and could decrease what little enthusiasm there is for reducing those emissions—as one of Gore’s assistants told LaSalle in asking him to dial down his estimate. (He didn’t.)
To his credit, Gore sides with the science, letting the political chips fall where they may. He writes that soils could sequester an additional 15 percent of annual global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. That could cut 50 parts per million of CO2 from the atmosphere over the next 50 years. (We are now at 387, up from 280 before the industrial era, with 450 ppm or even less a dangerous level.) To encourage changes in agriculture that would foster carbon sequestration, Gore advocates moving away from price supports and toward paying farmers for “how much carbon they can put into and keep in their soil,” he says. Paying farmers to sequester carbon might jump-start the use of biochar, which Gore calls “one of the most exciting new strategies for restoring carbon to depleted soils, and sequestering significant amounts of CO2.” Biochar, which he learned about during a 1989 trip to the Amazon, is basically porous charcoal. Made by burning switch grass, corn husks, and other waste, it can absorb CO2 like a charcoal filter in a cigarette absorbs gases. Gore estimates that biochar could sequester 40 percent of annual CO2 emissions.”
—-
The second paragraph was conveniently omitted by the author at
http://noteviljustwrong.com/blog/general/247-gore-urges-scientist-to-change-science-to-suit-his-alarmist-agenda
It is amusing to skewer Gore using the medium he invented.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Fannie Mae will likely soon become the worlds biggest owner of single family homes:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125743289932030933.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
We are doomed.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
@Mark Hoffer
Re: Nation plea for funding…you say
though, if she, really, wanted to right her Balance Sheet, she’d take a page from the ‘hated’ Capitalists, use the ‘low-interest-rate enviro to her advantage, and offer 3% 12-month ‘Deposit Notes’ to her readership..
——–
However, that site you linked about Al Gore (”Not Evil, Just Wrong) is looking for some coins, too. Hard times for everyone these days. BTW…agree…much hype about H1N1. Another terror alert…seems it’s what our gubmint does best these days and if it puts coins in Big Pharma pockets while people try to get health care for all….well there’s much irony there, isn’t there.
From the link you gave:
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November 5th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
I am bearish on the stock market, primarily because of valuation, and deleveraging. But I am constantly looking for data which would disprove my thesis. On the Societe Generale website, there have been several posts which hint that this will be a normal post-recession economic recovery, to wit, “The Making of a Virtuous Cycle”:
http://www.globalmarkets.sgcib.com/alfresco.pub/d/a/workspace/SpacesStore/3911937d-d516-49ab-a157-c17aeb707516/11Nov05final.pdf
These optimistic posts appear to be predicated on an incipient recovery in manufacturing. I wonder what others thought of this view.
Thanks, Bill
November 5th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
Kass: ‘Fast Money’ Recap thinks the “American Dream is over”
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10621911/5/kass-fast-money-recap-and-more.html
These shorts talking their books are pathetic. We’ve got the technology. Let’s see all their trades, in real time, their positions, and their returns. His crass – Kass? – desperate attempt to turn himself into an financial-seer – since he got lucky on the March bottom – is ludicrous. Get off the TV GOdl-chain-wearing Miami dude. You’re done.
Yeah.. yeah… I know you guys all hate America… great… SO MOVE.
Mohamed El Baradei, claims if we ( and the IAF) bomb Iran’s nascent nuke industry, that there will be an international back lash. Wrong. I will be cheering it. and the follow up. and the follow up to that…
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/e/mohamed_elbaradei/index.html?inline=nyt-per
And he says it will not destroy the knoweldge. So.. when you send the engineers back into the tunnels and the get bombed again… and again… they will soon forget, and will go back to Qom and pray.
El Baradei is simply trying to create a pretense of neutrality. Bomb the crap out of those four-young- wive-nailing mullahs. the sooner, the better.
The Lex column on “the double whip recession” claims if an order for 10 comes through, the middle man will order 15 to be safe, and the manufacturer will order 20, then the recession stars again. Hello UK, get some inventory-control software, sign distribution/information sharing deals. It’s the most moronic thing I’ve ever read in their otherwise intelligent salmon-colored rag.
http://www.ft.com/lex
That’s not the way the world works. Are the interns editing this week?
November 5th, 2009 at 10:35 pm
I thought one of the most telling statements about Obama’s Nobel peace prize win went, to paraphrase: We felt we had to give it to him now because in three years time it would be too late. Were they expecting that political house of cards to have fallen in on itself by then?
Based on the mood of the voting public these days I’d say yes.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
Now for your free lesson in irony:
Outrage over wall blocking free U2 Berlin concert
BERLIN – Irish rockers U2 returned to Berlin for a free mini-concert Thursday in front of the Brandenburg Gate, playing its classic singles and a duet with Jay-Z even as the show was obscured from public view by a nearly 6-1/2-foot (two-meter) high metal barrier.
….and it wasn’t even a paid concert. This is bizarre to the max
November 5th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
common man-
the Nobel Peace Prize was a “shock collar” to be worn by the pathetic empty headed buffoon that is our president to make sure he follows through on his rhetoric during the campaign-
like Americans give a shit-
Obama- what a waste of 4 years
November 5th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
@ahab
Well, at least he is living up to my expectations.
I had a feeling that him and his fellow whiz kids would be no match for the army of lobbyists that live in Washington DC.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:13 pm
@CMan 10:42pm — Maybe the promoter had U2 confused with Pink Floyd?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
@ThoseWhoHaveGoneBefore — “If 25% of the population is die hard conservative and if 25% of the population is died in the wool liberal, wouldn’t it be nice if the other 50% formed a new political party? Just saying…..”
The problem is that 10% are die hard one way and 10% are die hard the other way (classic bell-shaped curve), but the other 80% don’t give a shit at all. Which is kind of why the election results are always 50.0003% / 49.9997%.
Pretty much all you have to do is convince Harry to change his vote and the election’s yours.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
all the phillies fans could yell, “the yankees suck, the yankees suck”
the yankee fans yelled, “lets go yankees, lets go yankees”
the cream always rises to the top. the yankees are a class operation
even if you’re not a yankee’s fan.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:36 pm
Happy Guy Fawkes Day!
November 5th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
TakBak,
re: Nation plea, sorry I wasn’t clearer–It wasn’t that they’re looking to scrape up some Cashish, but that they’re not even helping people, help them..
the first suggestion, offering ‘Deposit Notes’ would cut their cost of Capital, and, secondly, if they’re looking for donations, why don’t they set up a 501(c)(3) subsidiary to fund the ‘educational’ function of their I-Reporters–they could buy the product, for pub., from the NPO–and the donators would catch a write-off..They need to take a page from Business..
~~
stillaway,
I hear ya about ‘the 2nd paragraph’, it’s why I posted two links..but, ‘the 2nd paragraph’ is, in my estimation, just weasel-ly editing, providing cover for, both, Gore y Newsweek.
The dude from Rodale, who’s right down the street, is right-0n with: ““If we feed the biology and manage grasslands appropriately, we could sequester as much carbon as we emit,” says Timothy LaSalle, CEO of the Rodale Institute, who presented at two summits. The political clash is this: if you tell people soils can be managed to suck up lots of our carbon emissions, it sounds like a get-out-of-jail-free card, and could decrease what little enthusiasm there is for reducing those emissions—as one of Gore’s assistants told LaSalle in asking him to dial down his estimate. (He didn’t.)”
Gore, AGW, and the “CO2 will kill you, me, everyone else, AND The Polar Bears”-crowd are completely FOS, and it is, in reality, another sad Hoax in attempt to control, even, more of our lives..
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=Global+Warming+is+a+Hoax
November 6th, 2009 at 1:15 am
MEH,
>> as one of Gore’s assistants told LaSalle in asking him to dial down his estimate. (He didn’t.)
That is not the same as:
>> So there you have it – LaSalle proposed a way of solving the CO2 issue but was basically told to shove it
that.
As for “dialing down” the estimates, it might be warranted.
November 6th, 2009 at 1:44 am
X-rays/gamma rays strike the earth and radiate back as radio waves. Carbon (and methane and certain other gases) are relatively transparent to X-rays/gamma rays but less so with radio waves. So, what happens? As we increase the density of carbon in the atmosphere, more of the sun’s energy stays in the atmosphere.
Yeah, yeah…meteorologists can’t predict next week’s weather. But, there are different kinds of problems. Scientists put a man on the moon 40 years ago (using stone knives and bear skins) and sent spacecraft in fly-by’s to planets 9 times as far from the Sun as the earth. They’re able to solve certain kinds of problems. They believe they can calculate the overall net energy addition to the planet as a result of the greenhouse effect. Do you guys want to ignore what we’re doing with Spacecraft Earth’s life support system? (That strikes me about as “smart” as deciding to ignore warnings about derivatives. Only the stakes are higher.)
It took thousands of years to accumulate the coal and oil deposits we’re consuming every year. “Managing the soil” to gather that much carbon sounds highly implausible. But, really, whether or not it works is immaterial to climate protection legislation, because as soon as we tax carbon companies will beat a path to LaSalle’s door to use his technology. If it works, he’ll be wealthy.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:48 am
This is a great website to understand how the US looks at the US. Take a look at this link and you will see how Europe looks at Europe and US, China and some others.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article16051_en.htm
It is the European commissions forecast and their forecasts have tradionally beaten all banks and institutions, the only one that has scored slightly better is IMF who publish 1 month later, ie have one more month of data in report.
The start of the US chapter is gloomy:
“The recession which started at the end of 2007 has
been the deepest and longest in the United States
for more than sixty years. It has taken a heavy toll
in terms of employment and output loss. Current
data indicate that output contraction ended last
summer and that the economy is stabilising
although unemployment continues to rise. The
financial system has improved, but remains fragile.
The headwinds facing the economy are formidable
and are likely to make the recovery relatively
sluggish and prone to setbacks over the forecast
period.”
November 6th, 2009 at 4:51 am
What I cannot understand is how I have become totally untrusting of our government and this does not mean just the Obama Administration but this goes back quite some time. It just seems that no politician tells the truth anymore. I guess some would say that it is their version of the truth, but not really, it has become just plain lying. Whether it is unemployment statsitics or inflation statistics, or whatever; noone tells us the truth. Look at the status of our banks! By the government changing the accounting standards and keeping interest rates at less than .25%, they are hoping to save some of the banks and the financial system. But they are also hiding the truth from many investors and the ignorant public. The result is that these investors put their money in banks that may very well fold in 6-24 months.
Look at the story about the gutting of the bill that Ron Paul put together on regulating the Federal Reserrve. The head of the house committee that gutted the bill of anything that would regulate the Fed is from North Carolina, the home if Bank of America. The four largest donors to the congressman are banks… who would have thought!
November 6th, 2009 at 5:50 am
Billwhc,
I feel the same way. I don’t believe anything I hear or read anymore. The whole damn thing is just smoke and mirrors. It really is. Nothing is ever what it seems to be anymore. I have quit putting any of my money at risk because how can you make any kind of informed decision if you feel like you are on the “outside” and being played for a fool?
I have heard over the last fews days some debates that insider trading shouldn’t even be considered illegal! The whole Country has been taken hostage by a few at the very top who have captured the WH and Congress. I thought it was comical that the SEC or somebody has charged (I think) 14 people for securities fraud or something. LOL!! Do they think anybody in this world still believes that they really police anything financial in this Country? What a joke? Don’t even bother. This is just a charade to make us think they are on the job policing the markets to make sure they are fair to you and me. What pathetic BS! The whole thing is nothing but a shell game. I certainly hope that if people have figured out nothing else, they have at least figured that much out by now. I bet if a net were dropped over the Wall Street crowd, there would be some kind of illegality in 75% of the transactions. They’re crooks. Accept it!
I have lost confidence in the whole financial landscape here. I am also amazed how quickly they turned Obama into just one of the boys in less than 6 months. He has just turned into one more blow-hard, who talks a big tale; but, in the end stays with the status quo….a status quo that has never been so fucked-up as now. We as a Country are in big trouble. The people has been muted and have lost control of this Country to the 5% who control the 97% or whatever that unbelievable figure currently is. We are all slaves to the man. We pay our taxes and they piss it all away. Now , there is an effort to even hide where the money goes. Crazy! Where am I? Bizarre..
November 6th, 2009 at 6:20 am
With all the Goldman hating that goes on in the blogosphere color me surprised no one pointed out Jan Hatzius’ appearance on CNBC after the fed announcement.
For those with short memory Goldman, the day before the GDP number, downgrades their prediction for the quarter. The lemmings jump in since they don’t want to appear to be on the other side of a Goldman trade. The market if you recall was down hard. Hmmmm, great opportunity to buy spz if one thought maybe GDP number would be decent. Number beats concensus. Go figure. Market waaaaaay up.
Hatzius is asked by Bartoromo about the poor call. Hatzius said they added wrong. That’s too bad. A thousand rocket scientists and none can add. Hmmmmmm. That sucks. How’s he supposed to do his job if none of his lackeys can add. Sounds like a job opening in Goldmanville.
Oh well.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:20 am
Re: Gore agenda:
The Copenhagen summit http://www.webcommentary.com/
Christopher Monckton, the thorn in Gore’s side.
BTW- dog poop is next on the list..
http://www.carbonoffsetsdaily.com/uk-carbonmarketnews/memo-to-prince-charles-co2-is-not-a-pollutant-co2-is-plant-food-9717.htm
The best definition of climate change I’ve heard was by an 8 yr old boy:
“the definition of climate change is summer, fall, winter , spring”
November 6th, 2009 at 6:42 am
I am just a little puzzled at where we’ll be in a year. I look at all the things the government has sponsored and can’t even list them all. Car companies, investment banks, first time home buyers, drivers of old cars, real estate companies, homebuilders, old people in need of a subsidy, pension plans, chronically unemployed folks, paving companies, green companies, it seems the list is endless. And now I see GM is going to use our money to give new life to Opel.
Historians will find this time interesting.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:18 am
Here goes:
44 years of deficit spending and inflation explain everything. We live in the world they created.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:26 am
What this world needs is more successful people who can buy the things we sell. I can’t stand apart from this claim but I can only do so much. We need more savings, too.
America is the most leveraged country in world history. Let’s hope we have a leveraged and explosive recovery!
That’s what leverage is supposed to do, right?
Amplify the positive and boil away the negative.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Will our massive spending spree launch us into a new era?
(spoken in Groucho Marx style) It already has. It’s called depression and foreclosure and the stench is hard to ignore.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:00 am
I said a few months ago that the US would create a superagency to manage all the foreclosures they hold. F&F renting the foreclosures the banks dump on them is a clever way to reduce the size of the writedowns I guess.
Will the foreclosed want to rent the homes they formerly owned? I can only imagine the process to determine a “fair” rent.
There is an article in SF paper that projects CA underwater homes will incrases fro 54% to 68% in the next 18 mos, live goes on , people take new jobs and move, there could be a lot more RE cratering out there!
November 6th, 2009 at 10:51 am
>> The best definition of climate change I’ve heard was by an 8 yr old boy:
>> “the definition of climate change is summer, fall, winter , spring”
Are you from the NAR? Don’t look at seasonal trends when we’re talking about year-over-year, decade-over-decade changes.
November 6th, 2009 at 10:53 am
The CO2 scientists are worried about isn’t dog poop. There are so many straw men from the “skeptics” that I could reject their viewpoint purely on the basis of the way they argue their position.
November 6th, 2009 at 11:12 am
wunsa-
see: http://astore.amazon.com/global_warming_hoax-20/detail/0980076315
The Deniers: The World Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those who are too fearful to do so
By Lawrence Solomon
**Comments: A must-read for anyone interested in environmentalism or has seen Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth”. Let me start by 1st stating that the author, Lawrence Solomon, is an environmentalist himself and not some right-wing partisan hack on the lines of Rush Limbaugh.
Contrary to what Al Gore and his followers claim, the science of global warming is not “settled” as in man is solely responsible and that apocalyptic scenarios will occur if we do not do anything. In this book, the research of dozens of high-profile international scientists with impeccable credentials affiliated with prestigious institutions ranging from MIT to Cambridge to CERN devastatingly counter what Gore and the global warming alarmists hype.
Though none of the scientists interviewed “deny” that global warming is occurring, various aspects of the alarmists’ positions are challenged from poor statistics, ineffective models, neglecting natural factors, and more.
The author’s columns, published in Canada’s newspaper The National Post, formed the backbone of this book and are worth reading as well. [...]
Like any great scientist should do, obsolete models need to be discarded and old theories must be revised when new evidence surfaces.
This book has made me completely reconsider my views on global warming. Evidence still points that the earth is warming however no longer do I purchase into the alarmists’ view that mankind is solely responsible and that the world will end should we not impose carbon taxes and other anti-economic measures.
http://www.interactivereviews.com/large/0980076315
to begin with..
November 6th, 2009 at 11:17 am
What if it’s not real debt?
I simply visualize a factory full of robots producing Toyotas or iPods or Barbies. The lion’s share of the value created by the robots accrues to the robot’s owners, with allowances to those who make and maintain the robots, raw material suppliers, and so forth. So the supply side is taken care of…but where are the consumers going to come from? Previously, a significant percentage of the net wealth being created would be cycled back into the system as wages and thereby create demand as consumers. But now, where is the wealth being cycled back in? One guy with 100 million dollars is not going to deliver anywhere near the demand as 10,000 people with 10,000 dollars each. Not to belabor the point then, but what seems to be happening is not a wealth creation problem but a wealth distribution problem.
The traditional model based on wages paid for labor cannot abide the labor of robots. The guy with the $100mil has got to get money into the hands of the people who can buy his products, somehow, or else his own inbound flow dries up. An outright gift to buyers also cannot be fully accomodated under the traditional model (a price reduction is not a gift). The only traditional mechanism allowed is for the $100million man to lend consumers the money to buy his products. This has all sorts of obvious attractions for the lender, as it allows the game to continue and it even enhances his own power since the other party is not only his customer but is also now indebted to him, with all the traditional baggage implied by that condition.
So what we’re watching is the crash of not just an economic model but a socio-psychological one as well. The continuous accumulation of wealth by the robot owners is unsustainable and in essence illusory, and by lending the money they are simply distributing the wealth that was created by the robots. There simply is no framework for doing so other than to call it a loan, and the psychological baggage of expecting it to be paid back is vestigial. It’s not a loan in the sense that I would lend you $20 until payday.
Debt default is the new means of wealth redistribution.
A Goldman Sachs trader who earns $10 million a year simply proves my point. Can you point out where is the specific economic value-added labor that creates 10 million dollars of wealth?
———————————
Hi Reed,
That’s what I see as an ultimate dilemma for capitalism: as we approach the development of “von Neumann machines” that can self-reproduce and produce commodities at the same time, we face a bifurcation into either oligarchy wealth where the rich own robots and the poor starve, or a dismantling of a wealth-ownership based system.
Cheers, Steve Keen
November 6th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
@ As The Common Man Sees It:
“I had a feeling that him and his fellow whiz kids would be no match for the army of lobbyists that live in Washington DC.”
McCain and Palin would have done no better–and probably worse based on their inability to even sound competent prior to having to act that way. Face it, our prized system gave us a choice of two ill-equipped and prepared evils and, with little data, forced us to try and determine the least harmful of them. In the end, we probably lost “less” with the choice made but not materially and that, in any event, is little consolation now and we are not yet a year into the term.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
@Mark, If we manage soil more properly… I’d like to see us manage anything agricultural in a sound fashion. You can take one look at the dead zone in the gulf of mexico to see how well we manage our soil.
Now you propose that alls we have to do is make the farmers do a whole bunch of things that do not contribute to their bottom line, so we can go along happily buring coal and not have to worry about things like CO2 buildup in the atmosphere.
While they’re at it perhaps they can wipe our behinds and make sure we didn’t spill any milk from our bubbas on our chinny chin chins…
November 6th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Chance the Gardener of “Being There”, Peter Sellers’s last movie ride, had a better grip on getting this Crisis /Opportunity right than all the damn fools in Financial services and Congress trying to sell the public that they can jerk Fall into Spring without passing through Winter.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078841/quotes
November 6th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
>> Evidence still points that the earth is warming however no longer do I purchase into the alarmists’ view that mankind is solely responsible.
Then, what are we arguing about? Humankind isn’t “solely” responsible. But, we are making a big impact in smaller-than-geologic time frames — time frames that matter. (I don’t care how hot it was when Big Bang occurred or even when the dinosaurs roamed.)
Tax carbon. Then let’s watch our much celebrated ingenuity rise to the occasion.
Implementing the Pickens Plan sure beats bailing out Wall Street. One has an ROI without resorting to nominal-vs-real chicanery and currency debasement.
Personally, I’m not anticipating most of humanity doing the right thing. One can look at this mess in finance ( http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/guest-post-was-it-nobody-saw-it-coming-or-everybody-who-saw-it-coming-was-a-nobody.html ) to see that prophets are not without honor except in their own countries. If they’re anything as good as their corporate peers on Wall Street, the polluting establishment will talk enough “sense” into those voters receptive to anti-government, anti-Hollywood, anti-celebrity ad hominem attacks to prevent meaningful legislation from being passed.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
In other words, I’m betting on rising soft commodity prices over the years.
Speaking of which, where is Ross these days? I was hoping he’d be around to tell us when ranchers were done culling their herds…
November 7th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
wunsa-,
it’s like this, below..LSS: We don’t need “Tax & Trade” CO2 shenanigans, just some sound practices..
Mark E Hoffer Says: November 7th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
“..”He’s betting on global population growth and global wealth increasing, thus raising the world’s purchasing power to buy stuff that the US makes, said Peter Boockvar, of Miller Tabak & Co. “It’s also a bet that we will still import stuff that the rest of the world makes.”
But the investment is not just about economic growth. It is also about the environment.
Talk of the rail operator benefiting from some form of a “green” upgrade appear wide of the mark – the cost of transforming one of the world’s largest consumers of petroleum products operating on 32,000 miles of track into an electric railway does not bear thinking about.
But there are green benefits to the investment. One is the recently passed US Clean Energy and Security Act, which allows companies to trade carbon credits.
As Burlington Northern transports vastly more freight per emission than road or air hauliers, there is potential for it to trade millions if not billions of dollars of carbon credits in future years.
Burlington Northern also offers vast fuel efficiencies – one train removes 280 freight trucks off US highways – and the coal it transports is largely from low-sulphur coal deposits, which will be increasingly in demand as legislators continue to clamp down on polluters.
These reasons might go some way to explain why Buffett apparently broke one of his golden rules of investing: never overpay.
Matthew Carletti, at Fox-Pitt Kelton, points out that the purchase price – 2.8 times Burlington Northern’s book value and 18 times future earnings – “does not imply ‘value’”.
Given that, and the impact the credit rating reviews could have on Berkshire Hathaway, was Buffett driven by another factor in making the surprise decision?
For a number of years, the 79 year-old has spoken of hunting down an “elephant-esque” deal which would be Berkshire’s crowning moment.
In many ways, Burlington Northern is that elephant, the weight of which will stop any successor from changing Berkshire’s course too dramatically, thereby ensuring Buffett’s legacy is not thrown off the rails.”
http://refreshingnews9.blogspot.com/2009/11/why-did-warren-buffett-pay-44bn-for.html
~~
“…As reported in
http://warofillusions.wordpress.com/2009/03/30/obama-maurice-strong-al...
“The “privately-owned” Chicago Climate Exchange is heavily influenced by Obama cohorts Al Gore and Maurice Strong.
For years now Strong and Gore have been cashing in on that lucrative cottage industry known as man-made global warming.
Strong is on the board of directors of the Chicago Climate Exchange, Wikipedia-described as “the world’s first and North America’s only legally binding greenhouse gas emission registry reduction system for emission sources and offset projects in North America and Brazil.”
Gore, self-proclaimed Patron Saint of the Environment, buys his carbon off-sets from himself–the Generation Investment Management LLP, “an independent, private, owner-managed partnership established in 2004 with offices in London and Washington, D.C., of which he is both chairman and founding partner. The Generation Investment Management business has considerable influence over the major carbon credit trading firms that currently exist, including the Chicago Climate Exchange.””
~~
“…The American Clean Energy and Security Act passed on a vote of 219-212, with eight Republicans voting for and 44 Democrats voting against.
House Democratic leadership pushed the bill through on their last day before Congress’s July 4 recess, under Republican protest.
“Last night at 3:09 a.m., House Democrats filed a 309-page amendment and denied Republican and Democrat amendments to the tune of the 224 that were submitted,” complained Republican Mike Pence of Indiana during the day’s three-hour debate. “What’s the hurry?”
The hurry is the ambitious Obama administration goal of passing climate legislation before global climate talks in Copenhagen in December.
If passed by the Senate, the American Clean Energy and Security Act would create a cap-and-trade program to reduce climate warming emissions.
The program would set limits on major sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, including electric utilities, manufacturers and the transportation industry, then ratchet the limits down through 2050. It would issue emissions permits that industries could trade…”
http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=61769