WSJ Developments is live blogging the Toll Brothers conference call.
Here are a few highlights:
• For the year ending Oct. 31, contracts fell 16%, deliveries declined 37% .
• Company has $1.81 billion of cash
• Firm is gaining market share
• 84% of its land is owned (the rest is optioned)
• There will be less competitors int he future
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In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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November 11th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
personal opinion- i think Toll Brother’s is one of the most vulgar home builders out there- always out in the hinterlands- big boring houses- i wish they would just go away-
re month over month declines- normal as we head into Fall and Winter-
the 42% i nrease YoY- well they have pulled out all the stops w/ the NAR and MBA to get tax credits that help their industries-
parasites
November 11th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Bunch of welfare queens.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
I just turned down a business contract w/Toll (a one-off). Too many hoops, conditions and cautions from associates/past vendors. There’s easier money elsewhere in the industry. Like ahab, I’ve never really liked their products or communities, and I’m the one who has to put the lipstick on the pig.
The reason their market share is growing is because there are already fewer competitors than there were a few years back, and the market is shrinking. Land held is more than likely declining in value.
Go ahead and load up. Good luck.
Buy now, or be priced out forever.
November 11th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Is it possible that there just aren’t enough well priced houses out there so it’s easier to build one?
November 11th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
damn:
As wages haven’t gone up appreciably (the builders used immigrant labor to keep costs down, but their office staffs didn’t see all that much income growth either), and as materials and products increasingly came from China (at much lower cost and as evident by all of the defective drywall used in homes during the boom), land was and has been the driver of cost (other than greed) of a new home. Land owned outright (especially land that has been developed) is probably the most significant and uncontrollable cost involved in building a home (another national builder I work with was smart, and refused to buy or develop land during the boom – they purchased developed lots in PUDs (Planned Unit Developments), and have weathered the storm better than most (and that still ain’t so good). I doubt a newly built home of the same quality and size as those built during the boom would be significantly cheaper than an existing home (albeit, existing homes now on the bank’s books are of unknown value as long as they are held).
November 11th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
FHA is also stepping into the fold and picking up where subrime left off, meaning we the taxpayer will be on the hook when it all goes south….AGAIN.
November 11th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Great, I hope they build lots of houses in CA! Eventually prices will be set by supply and demand, right…?
November 11th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Toll Brothers has done pretty well here in NC. We lived in one of their homes in New Jersey, before we moved here.
But, a couple weeks ago we took a ride over to Chapel Hill, NC…(big Boomer enticement area for retirees) and Toll had started a new development of Mansion homes..MIL and Over and we road in and there were five homes built in what looked like a former cow pasture and no activity nor even the usual “Toll Welcome Center” there to greet us.
Looked like the place was abandoned by Toll and that’s very unusual. Two of the homes had “FOR SALE” on the lawn and one looked unkempt and one had some kids stuff out in back and the other looked partially empty.
Toll has been known for having a “Mode or Models” open at all times..(fully decorated, landscaped) and either that was the “Selling Office” or there was another building (to be Rec Center or such) as the selling office in their High End Developments.
Our impression was that Toll had abandoned it…trying to get local builders to buy it out. There was some sign as we left to call a phone number for Toll.
Anyway…the place was a little far out for what most folks would want to retire too. And the largest development for the “High End Retirees” which is Governor’s Club with the ritzy Golf Course, etc…has had trouble for YEARS selling much of anything.
I wonder how many of Tolls other developments to the “HIGH END are doing that were recently built in the Southeast. We had looked at some stuff of theirs down in Boca Raton, FLA during the Boom..in ‘05, which was gorgeous (waterfall pools and luxurious amenities) and were selling well but when we were back there in Boca in ‘07 there were lots of FOR SALE signs around the place. And, they had started to put in Condo/Apartments on the remaining land. Not a good sign for an upscale luxury development.
I wonder how much Toll is Fudging. Are they counting Condo/Townhouse sales they put in their newer developments? Where is the “high end” real estate they are selling located? :shrug: Toll is also known for selling over areas of their developments here in NC to local builders and does that mean that they can count the local builder’s sale into their corporate sales as part of the “deal?”