US Unemployment, 2004-09
By Barry Ritholtz - November 5th, 2009, 9:30AM
Tomorrow is NFP day — and when those numbers come out, we won’t have much time to discuss much else.
So while I am winging to Austin early this a.m., I wanted to share these interesting run of charts, via Flowing Data, showing relative unemployment in the US.
2004, 5.5% Unemployment (National Average)
2009, 9.8% Unemployment (National Average)
Here are all of the years in between:
click for ginormous chart
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November 5th, 2009 at 9:38 am
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm
Key Factors
•It’s way too early to tell if the drop in initial claims represents a growing downward trend or if claims are merely looking for a new equilibrium range. In the past few months, whenever the claims level fell below its previous range analysts were quick to predict a long-term downward trajectory.
•Given that a long downward trend hasn’t happened yet, we are leaning more on claims trying to settle somewhere between 500,000 and 525,000 for the next few weeks.
•That said, an initial claims level above 400,000 will continue to push the unemployment level higher.
•The drop in continued claims does not mean more workers are finding jobs, but is due to the unemployed running out of their unemployment insurance. Approximately 7,000 unemployed workers lose their unemployment benefits every day.
•The Senate just passed a new bill that would extend unemployment insurance 14 weeks for all states and 20 weeks for states with unemployment rates above 8.5%. The extension should halt the steady decline in continuing claims for the next few weeks. The House passed a similar measure about a month ago and is expected to ratify the new Senate bill.
•Republican lawmakers have already begun campaigning that this will be the last extension of unemployment benefits, but if the job market doesn’t pick up tremendously over the next 3-4 months, there will be enormous pressure to extend benefits before the midterm primaries.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:10 am
“…little pink houses for you and me…”
November 5th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Not too much pain in NYC. Pretty curious, considering NYC was/is the epi-center of it all. Bunch of welfare queens (and kings).
November 5th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Jobless claims drop to “only” 512k! Hallelujah! Time for a huge rally!
HCF
November 5th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Texas isn’t doing too badly. I think I’ll move there when they break away from the Union.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:25 am
The top park of Alaska is less pink, therefore it MUST be gaining jobs.
Obama needs to find out what Sarah Palin has been doing to stimulate this region and follow her plan.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Who you calling a Welfare Queen? We are BUSY today, making another $100M today at 85 Broad.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Whatever the numbers are tomorrow, CNBC will spin them as a positive. Oh Happy Day: only 500k jobless claims today.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:35 am
bsneath: Things are getting worse here. The oil companies’ profits have been dropping like a rock here and they are laying off lots of well paid people.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Hi Barry,
Best coffee in Austin is at Jo’s, next to the San Rose Hotel, both of which are really cool without trying too hard.
http://www.joscoffee.com/congress/jossouthcongress.htm
November 5th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Mike in Nola Says:
I hear ya. Drilling for nat gas is not so good at the moment. Obama doesn’t understand we should be drilling for every kind of domestic energy we can find. But once you guys gain your independence that will change. Might load up the van this afternoon….
November 5th, 2009 at 10:55 am
That looks like some sort of a rash or something. Where exactly did you say you were again last night America?
So the next time someone says we need not get rash about the unemployment situation you can show them the above STD chart. By the way STD stands for Statistically Transmitted Dis-ease
November 5th, 2009 at 11:03 am
The low interest are doing what?
Improving the margin for global firms to invest in China?
Place bets on the dollar?
Buy gold?
Cause the money sure ain’t going into capital expansions.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Also it looks like the Ranger and his dog are still employed at the Bad Lands National park in North Dakota.
I guess his job is safe.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:13 am
“The low interest are doing what?”
Providing a cheap source of trading capital for 85 Broad. You’re a bit slow on the uptake out there, aren’t you?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:14 am
texas just started laying off in Q2, we have also run out of money for the unemployed, we never got into bubble status on homes for the most part cause of twenty years ago the lessons were learned, plus we got land and roads a plenty, the state is going to have some problems we take a cut on all oil produced in the state, it supports higher education and the reason why no state income taxes
November 5th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Seems my earlier message got lost
Interesting graphic – esp to see parts of country doing better.
Hey Wanger: You had quite a short-term streak going with your predictions but those shorts aren’t lookin so good right now…unless you tell us sold them?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:34 am
A pity these charts aren’t presented as an animated GIF from at least 1970 to present. THAT would be an interesting thing to behold.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:45 am
But it’s all good…all these unemployed people, victims of relentless international wage arbitrage, will be paid benefits with the tax revenues from the enormous profits generated by the Masters of the Universe that redirect capital flows (and thereby jobs) to the most profitable places. Oh wait, the MofU’s won’t be paying full dollar for those tax liabilities after all, since their cronies in government have cleverly discovered a means of giving them a discount by selling them tax credits of defunct companies they now own. I suppose the unemployed will just have to eat cake.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
“Oh wait, the MofU’s won’t be paying full dollar for those tax liabilities after all”
Damn right, we won’t. Here at 85 Broad we have expensive lawyers and avoid tax as much as possible.
November 5th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Very marginal change in weekly unemployment – and thats before revisions
November 5th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
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