Archive for December, 2009
One of the memes I’ve heard recently in the climate debate is that there is no scientific consensus — that there is actually strong disagreement.
The main basis of this argument is that 31,486 dissenting scientists have signed a petition against the belief that Global Warming is man made at the PetitionProject.org.
I don’t want to debate climate change; rather, I want to look at that argument to see if there are any statistical flaws in it.
My problem is whenever anyone uses a single, out of context, data point. What does this number actually mean? Is 31,486 alot or a little? How many scientists are there in the US? etc.
I heard this argument the other day, and went hunting down a visual way to express it, and found this via Information is Beautiful:
This does not resolve the debate — there are more variations (Climate Change: A Consensus Among Scientists?) — at but it demonstrates an obvious flaw in the “dissenting scientist” argument.
Here is the breakdown of skeptics, by field:
Interesting stuff . . .
Visuwords is is a visualization tool based upon Princeton University’s WordNet. The online graphical database — part dictionary, part thesaurus — that groups words by their meanings and associations with other words and concepts. These related linguistic ideas are visually displayed in an interactive graphic. The most interesting visual displays come from the broadest topical…Read More
Seems appropriate: “I’m starting to get the sense that 2009 wants to finish me off before it dies of old age. A calendrical unit yelling “I’m taking you with me, you bastard!” from its vanishing final paper bunker marked December, every spent day a room deleted from the structure until 2009 is finally huddled in…Read More
Category: Current Affairs
Interesting commentary in the UK on QE: “The truth is, though, that we have been living in an economic La La Land, induced by perhaps the biggest policy undertaken during the Labour Government’s period in office: printing money, or quantitative easing, to use its economically correct but unlovely name. The way QE works is like…Read More
Economics Nobel laureate and Columbia University professor Joseph E. Stiglitz has what very well be the best year end piece I have seen to date; “The best that can be said for 2009 is that it could have been worse, that we pulled back from the precipice on which we seemed to be perched in…Read More
We are on track to finish the yr with the trends that have been in place 3/4 of ’09, strong stocks and corporate debt, weak US$ and lower US treasuries. The credit markets led the way down in ’08 in terms of equity performance, up in ’09 and I believe will again dictate the direction…Read More
What Would Cause A 5.50% 10-Year Note Next Year? Bloomberg.com – Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase…Read More
Category: Think Tank
Here are the highlights of the year’s news stories, depicted visually: Click for large graphic Source: OP-CHART: Picturing the Past 10 Years Phillip Niemeyer NYT, December 27, 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/12/27/opinion/28opchart.html