Annotated Rangebound S&P 500
By Barry Ritholtz - December 17th, 2009, 11:30AM
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
December 17th, 2009 at 11:34 am
i’m short………..psq, rwm
December 17th, 2009 at 11:43 am
I like the charts and comments. ESP the sentiment/short int. I believe, what people say and do are two different things sometimes.
Going forward, no one knows what breaks us one way or the other. On the positive side, RSP, $WLSH and Cum A/D show efforts to BO up. So maybe upside BO in time. Also the bears have not done a good job taking advantage of the stall here. Even with the Whitney flamethrower out twice now trying to knock stuff down. Wonder who’s short out there ? ………………
In this range, a flush out the bottom, like the false upside BO, followed by a quick reversal up, may be one possibility.
I have yet to meet anyone liking this market and telling me to go all in.
December 17th, 2009 at 11:57 am
forgot also short DZZ for a few weeks
dollar had a break away gap today, if it holds well, we shall see
you get a tepid fed day at the top, extremely strange
as gann says, when time is up, time is up
GS per the law has too reduce there VAR tremendously in december
December 17th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
On 10/19 I drew a line at 1097.5. This is the magnetic SPX line. Before I left for my last show, I had mentioned that the SPX had fallen below that line 4 times in a month. Each time it was a two day affair with the third day gapping up above the “magnetic” line. My last post was 12/9 with the SPX in day two of this pattern again. Well next trading day it gapped up again. I haven’t seen a more consistent pattern in a long, long time.
So I see 1097.50 as the line in the sand. Close three or four days below and we’ve broken the pattern to the down side.
December 17th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
well, since they are all intertwined, europe, china, brazil, india have all broken down, and copper has cracked a little, it’s a slow boat for sure, my guess is a nothing options day and sell off for santa, no santa rally for you, the soup is cold
December 17th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Kind of wondering about the expiration tomorrow myself. After that it seems the last time we rallied into year end with all the brokers touting Rosie Scenario we got slammed the first week of the NewYear. Nice chart tho.
December 17th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
A question for the TA experts … are there any metrics, rules of thumb, etc for how many times something can cycle through a range-bound situation like this?
Obviously, the most accurate answer is “until it stops”, but I’m wondering if anyone has ever done any analysis of these sorts of things, and determined any distributions of the number of iterations before the range is broken, either on the upside or the downside … perhaps using decaying volume as a limiting factor?