I hate when I save a graphic, but then forget where I saw it originally — any one know where this is from?
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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December 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
http://www.mint.com/blog/trends/are-we-coming-out-of-the-recession/
December 2nd, 2009 at 11:35 am
Here?
http://www.mint.com/blog/trends/are-we-coming-out-of-the-recession/
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Define “we”.
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Are we coming out of a recession- gee good question.. We are sending in 30k troops who have a great chance of being slaughtered, high teens unemployment rate, dollar which will be worth zero, stock market rallying reaching new highs daily, gold going up higher and higher—I dont get it.. Am i the only one who think something is wrong with this picture?
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:56 pm
CTX,
You are witnessing a mania akin to bubbles, nothing else. it will be resolved – ugly or calmly is the question. Keep your sanity and watch the dollar here. RIGHT HERE.
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Barry, it was written on the graphic in small letters at the bottom – gotta get out yer reading glasses! Great blog – keep up the good work . . .
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
This is kind of outdated question.
The recession is over!
The question should be what kind of recovery we are going to have.
In addition, I am not talking about the stupid alphabet (V, U, W, and L) soup; I am talking about 2% or 4% or 6% growth in coming years.
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Yes. The overall US economy is “coming out of recession”, and has been since Q3. That would be the headline factoid.
Is the real economy improving? No meltdown, but no jobs either. Huge debt loads. Deleveraging abounds. This will take years to work through. No debt write-off/pay down, no real recovery – think Japan, who also bailed-out their banks.
Will we experience a “double-dip” recession? Very likely, IMHO.
As usual, the truth lies buried somewhere in the underlying numbers/statistics.
Will the US experience a “V” shaped recovery, as the markets have priced in? No, IMHO.
Will the employment improve meaningfully anytime soon? No, IMHO.
No one knows the future (really), but the economic fundamentals of the US economy are still poor (really).
The gov’t is now the economy. Check again when the “stimulus” runs out next year.
The (investment) banks seem to be in pretty good shape somehow, what with ginormous bonuses again this year. The financial meltdown was actually quite positive for them – free gov’t $: zero rates + bailouts out the wazoo, and taxpayer-backed to boot, less competition, maximum moral hazard (too-big-to-fail (TBTF) continues), biz-as-usual cozy relationships with Washington, no substantive financial reforms, etc. Private profits, socialized losses. Huge wealth xfer, if you missed it.
Recession over? Wall St. – yes. Main St. – No.
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:08 pm
@sharkbait: The new “normal” is upon us. _ shaped recovery.
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Google image search probably showed me the answer. It will show it to you too.
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:27 pm
@Mannwich: The new “normal” is upon us. _ shaped recovery.
Agreed. It will be a long slog, IMHO. This is not your garden variety “inventory correction recession” recovery. but rather credit expansion (and collapse) recovery, with extra debt – want fries with that?
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
@CTX wrote:
> We are sending in 30k troops who have a great chance of being slaughtered…
Really? Really? Not to minimize the danger and sacrifice, but we’ve lost 800 troops in Afghanistan since 2001 — about three-quarters of the number of people who were murdered in NYC last year. Or less than one-third the number killed on September 11, 2001. Am I the only one who thinks there’s a lot of “Wolf”-crying coming from the left?
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
@mitchn: Yes.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
@mitchn: Seriously though, can you or someone explain to me why, after 8+ years there, are we still there? What is the end game? What is “victory”? Are we just going to kill all the evil-doers and call it a day? How will we fund it? How will we care for the soldiers who come home alive, but injured mentally and physically? Just some things to consider or should we all just bury our heads in the sand on these issues too and hope them away?
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Besides- re Afghan- Maybe the DONT WANT democracy.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:40 pm
@Mannwich
It’s not about Afghanistan and never has been. (See Reagan, Ronald.) It’s about al Qaeda and the prospect of loose nukes in neighboring Pakistan.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
@mitchn: So we just stay there forever. Are you happy with YOUR taxes going up to pay for it? If you are, great. Kudos to you. I’m guessing not though.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
These folks live in the 15th Century. So we’re going to go in and “democratize” them overnight and everyone will live happily ever after when no other country has been successful there. Good luck with that.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
arent there more Al Qaeda in Somalia and Yemen.. The real story here is India. India wants control of Afghh.. That is the bottom line. IF we continue to favor India, Pak will do nothing to control tribal areas in Pak, and Kashmir will continue to flare
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:47 pm
@CTX: Funny you mention that. Real “conservatives” (not neo-con chicken hawks that have co-opted conservatism) fear those very things you mention – uintended consequences of messing up the status quo and making things WORSE. But, hey, war is highly profitable, so our elite has to wreck things around the world, and “fix them”, while pocketing the money. Great business strategy.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:55 pm
@CTX: India does not want Afghanistan. They want Pakistan to stop using Afghanistan as a base from which to threaten/attack India. Seems perfectly reasonable to me.
@Mannwich: Pakistan is a failed state with nuclear weapons — that’s a problem for everyone. I think we will be dealing with that problem for decades to come. But, hey, we had troops in German and Japan (Okinawa) for 65 years and in Korea for 50. Instead, of raising taxes, why don’t we shift some resources from where they’re not needed to a place where they are?
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
@mitchn: From where, pray tell?
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Don’t know about coming out of the recession personally. I can tell you that business in the real estate sector in the south is REALLY BAD. I mean like biblical TERRIBLE – plagues and locusts and all that. Still shedding jobs in real estate for sure. Seem like real estate would have to stabilize for any meaningful recovery to occur.
Anyway, flipping through some charts today and it appears to me that TZA might be worth a look.
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
This quote is from this link
http://www.asiantribune.com/?q=node/12407/print
“….India has launched major developmental projects in Afghanistan, which include dollar 109.3 million Salma Dam power project in Herat, envisaged to produce 42 mw of power. The project is to be completed by next January. India has pledged dollar 750 million aid to the beleaguered Muslim nation. It is presently involved in generating hydro-electricity, construction of roads, creating telecommunication network and development of agriculture, industry et al.
India wants to change the face of Afghanistan by rebuilding its shattered economy. Several thousand Indians are working round the clock in Afghanistan to speed up the development process. According to an analyst “India’s successes in Afghanistan has stirred up a hornet’s nest in Islamabad, which has come to believe that India was taking over Afghanistan.” But it is their nightmare. Pakistan has been using Talibans as the main weapon of destruction in Afghanistan. India will continue to remain Pakistan’s main target of attack. It is wrong to expect that Pakistan will grasp its hand of friendship with India. It wants India to buzz off from Afghanistan. “
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
@Mannwich: Germany, Japan and Korea. The South Koreans hate our presence on the peninsula. Fine. Pay for your own damn defense.
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Mitchin: Dont be fooled- the US has done some bad things in the past to different countries. Dont think that everything they do is so wonderful- I get the perception that you think instilling a political system amongst a foreign nation is “our duty”.. I would advise you to read a bit about US involvement in Latin America and see what a disaster that turned out to be.
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
@CTX: You make my point. India is playing a shrewd hearts-and-minds game in Afghanistan. It’s good business and good politics (given India’s huge Muslim population). Pakistan (and the ISI, in particular) could give a rat’s ass about Afghanistan — other than as a training ground for radical jihadists and as a strategic sanctuary in the event of all-out war with India. India is not the bad actor in this scenario.
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:21 pm
@CTX: I’m not advocating nation-building or interference in the politics of another country. My only concern is with the failed nature of the Pakistani state, its nukes, and its demonstrated willingness to proliferate nuclear technology to other failed states (North Korea, Iran).
December 2nd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
@CTX @Mannwich: But, hey, how did we get so OT? Let”s talk recession!
December 2nd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
I have yet to see a Taliban fighter threatening my homeland security.
December 2nd, 2009 at 4:21 pm
@bman: Dude, Taliban forces got within 60 miles of Islamabad, the capital of a nuclear power. That’s a threat to your homeland security.
December 2nd, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Yes, we might statistically be out of recession. But the economic depression is ongoing.
December 2nd, 2009 at 6:07 pm
actually it was a recession (that threatened to become a depression) for the banksters and wall street. but now that recession is over for them. but for every one else, no the depression continues on
December 7th, 2009 at 12:45 am
If we analyze the current situations than it seems that we are still surviving in the recession. Because the situations and conditions around us are getting worse day by day there is unemployeement and the economic disturbance around the world. The Dubai real estate market has crashed too. But the hopes are good and it seem that the conditions will change quickly.