Here are a pair of charts from Ron Griess at The Chart Store. Taken together, they show potentially fading momentum for the rally.
As noted last week, I still believe the rally is “Innocent until proven guilty,” but this is worth watching:
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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December 21st, 2009 at 12:58 pm
the MACD crossing the trigger line- not usually a good sign
December 21st, 2009 at 1:05 pm
it’s been looking like it is Rolling-Over
Roll-Over, anyone taking bets on a “GOOG Analytics” usage spike for that term?
also, think USTreas Complex, and U$D ~2.5 Tr needing to ‘rollover’ in ’010..
December 21st, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Good stuff but shorts still dont work
December 21st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
CTX-
re shorts- I think shorts were the fuel for much of this rally- all the short covering in heavily traded inverse ETF’s-
now we’ll see what the market can do without all the shorts to kick around anymore
December 21st, 2009 at 1:52 pm
It’s an option writers paradise!
December 21st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
I thought the same thing back in June, but it found newfound strength somewhere. Green shoots?
What a time for it to start heading down. Just when I am expected to get back to work in January; which means of course I will be buying at the top for my 401K.
What’s that theory about it causing the most pain possible?
December 21st, 2009 at 3:34 pm
i was trading 3xs heavily till this e-mail:
“Nov 24, 2009
Important – ETF Margin Change Imminent
Dear Trader,
Please be advised that effective December 1, 2009, an increase in margin requirements for leveraged ETFs, and uncovered options on those leveraged ETFs, is being implemented by FINRA (Regulatory Notice 09-53). These changes will apply to Reg T (strategy-based) Margin accounts and Portfolio Margin accounts.
Your account has been identified as an account which, based on current positions and current market conditions, will be in margin deficit when the increase is applied. Please manage the risk in this account accordingly. An account with a margin deficit is subject to immediate liquidation to meet that deficit.
For further details, please see the following link:
http://www.finra.org/web/groups/industry/@ip/@reg/@notice/documents/notices/p119906.pdf
Regards,
Interactive Brokers Risk Management
”
I am not buying or selling anymore 3Xs since the margin calculation is completely screwed.