Christmas Reading
I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday festivities. I managed to relax and do very little work today. But I did come across quite a number of interesting articles — these are worth a read, regardless of the holidays:
• China Raises GDP Estimates, Closing in on Japan as Second-Biggest Economy (Bloomberg)
• Stadium Boom Deepens Municipal Woes (NYT) In case you didn’t realize what a giant scam municiple funded stadiums were. Enormous transfer of wealth from taxpayers to the ultra-wealthy
• U.S. Uncaps Support for Fannie, Freddie (WSJ)
• What I Learned in 2009 (Barron’s)
• Year in Review: Lessons from History–No Way Back to Cheap, Easy Credit (IMF)
• The Elves Leave Middle Earth – Sodas Are No Longer Free What it means when successful startups start cutting back on the perks.
• Fast, cheap, happy health care (MarketPlace) fascinating discussion of cheap affordable healthcare
• New Film Ignites Debate on Ratings Policy: MPAA shows just how out of touch it is by slapping an R rating on Its Complicated, the new Merrill Streep/Alec Baldwin comedy. Why? Because they smoke a joint in one scene. Welcome to 1972!
• Wired for War: Interesting new blog about the “Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st” Century
• My favorite holiday story this year: Chicago man’s friends gift-wrap everything he owns; An instant classic in prankdom (Chicago Sun Times)
What’s on your reading list?
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December 25th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Its really not “complicated” — the MPAA are a bunch of censoring idiot hacks.
The fact they they work in Hollywood and act as self-censors only makes it worse
December 25th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
I always try to keep up with finance studies on The Social Science Research Network (SSRN) site.
Here’s an interesting study showing a cities religious preponderance has an effect on the manager and that Catholic mangers tend to take more risk than Protestants (think Protestant work ethic and generally being more risk averse.
Catholics tend to turn their portfolios over more often, e.g. Ken Heebner a Boston fund manager working out of predominately Roman Catholic Boston.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1523770
December 25th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
New England loaded with Catholics.
South and Midwest predominately conservative and protestant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Religions_by_State.PNG
December 25th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
disaster architect?
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20100104/carter/
December 25th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
No way back to cheap, easy credit, unless you’re a TBTF bank.
December 25th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Completely off topic: Just wanted to report in case anyone needs a turkey dinner with no work, that the turkey, potatoes, gravy, and cranberry sauce from Whole Foods were all pretty good.
The turkey wasn’t bad at all. It’s cooked and sealed in plastic; you the plastic off (I used kitchen scissors) heat in in the oven for an hour or so in a disposable pan they give you. Wasn’t quite as good as the ones I fix using James Beard’s recipe, but that uses a couple of sticks of butter and you have the mess of raw turkey around to clean up.
I was especially impressed with the potatoes and gravy, which I expected to be some sort of instant things but were real potatoes and gravy containing turkey fat :) About the only complaint, although minor, was that the sides were a bit saltier than I make them, but we cook with a lot less salt than most, so we are more aware of it. Those who eat out a lot probably won’t notice. It was still good.
December 25th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
What I Learned in 2009 :
I hope that we learned in 2009 that there are very bad consequences when we allow a few organizations to put their personal interests ahead of long-term objectives.
I hope we have learned that when a single or a few institutions gain sufficient power to manipulate entire markets, those markets can and will fail.
Finally, I sincerely hope it is not too late to restore values of integrity, honesty and fair play in our society so that we will survive these tumultuous times and so that our children may live in a somewhat prosperous future and pursue the same American Dream that has blessed our lives.
I hope good prevails over bad in all deeds and actions and that we learn to accept that it is never appropriate to use dishonest or deceitful means in the pursuit of an end result no matter how important that end result may be. This will be a far greater gift to future generations than any other effort that we can undertake.
I wish all fellow bloggers the best in 2010.
December 25th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
disaster architect 2?
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/12/24/holiday-season-takedown/
December 25th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
Hope I’m not repeating a post, but ran across this tonight,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/17/real-housewives-hit-by-ha_n_395970.html
Never watched the show myself, but it seems reality TV is getting real.
December 25th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Revisiting “The Social Contract” to see if it might still be relevant to the world today.
OT, sorry, the best to all of you, from the deep thinkers to the crackpots, I hope I can continue to relate to all your thoughts, whether or not I agree with them.
Best regards,
RF
December 25th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
Anything about AVATAR and James Cameron, just saw the movie twice in a row, on IMAX 3D and Real3D.
Astonishing achievement on many levels, amazing visual feast, incredible richness of details… floating mountains !
Making movies is an art born from technological breakthroughs, and Cameron’s genius exemplify it so well while satisfying everyone including his financial backers.
I want to know all the story behind the conception of Pandora and the Avatar technology.
December 25th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
The article on the stadiums brings home the fact that, unlike the Federal Government, states and cities cannot just print money. And they generally can’t raise taxes very much since they often need taxpayer approval.
Many state and local governments are actually insolvent, but juggling the books to keep themselves afloat. For example, Mish just posted about California’s request to Obama for exemptions from some federal mandates to help close a $20B budget gap.
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis/~3/l3izkrppekg/schwarzenegger-seeks-rule-changes-on.html
The biggest problem facing most states and cities is pension plans underfunded by billions. Houston’s new mayor was the comptroller for years and has acknowledged that its one of the biggest problems Houston faces. Texas Teachers Pension Plan which actually covers a great many private employee, like those at MD Anderson, is grossly underfunded. Mish has gotten a little tiresome harping on the problem. Underfunding was due to overly generous benefits when times were good, based on projections that tax revenues and investments would appreciate at bubble rates forever. None of his is really news. See this article from last March:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alwTE0Z5.1EA
I’m sure there will be lots of lobbying in DC for a big bailout bill for states and cities. It will get especially urgent as many cities and school systems used stimulus funds to avoid substantial layoffs and the funding runs out in the Fall of 2010. I doubt that it is politically feasible to get anything like what would be needed through Congress with elections coming up, although I expect some electorally important states will get some help just as the politically connected banks have.
The only way out for most of these governments is going to be real or threatened bankruptcy as the bankruptcy courts are the only institutions with the power to nullify or modify the untenable obligation the governments face.
December 25th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
I just read this interesting take on health care reform:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1792-The-True-Intent-of-Health-Reform.html
December 26th, 2009 at 1:44 am
What would happen if Fortune 500 companies voluntarily restricted executive compensation to no more than, say, 20 million?
Where would all the excess money go?
How would it affect the economy?
How would it change what we regard as the proper compensation for skill (for example – titles and estates used to be rewarded as compensation equivalent to money by monarchs, churches were built as displays of local wealth, etc.)?
I happen to think it’s a great idea…
December 26th, 2009 at 3:17 am
Health care is interesting on very many levels. One of the things that fascinates me is how very simple things well removed from the commercial interests of drug companies can have a major positive influence on the health of populations.
The example uppermost in my mind is how in Bangladesh community based groups were taught to mix salt and sugar and water and give to children with serious diarrhoea. They taught mothers who taught mothers until all parents knew how to mix and administer this simple medicine. The result was a huge decrease in the total child mortality rate.
Another example is a simple thing like a 5% solution of hydrogen peroxide. This is a very effective and cheap antiseptic. It’s not advertised because it’s not patentable and the profit margins are too low.
Health has been hijacked by the medical profession and the drug industry.
The medical profession often points to the increase in health and life expectancy that has occurred in the last hundred years or so as if it has been entirely due to their efforts alone. Yet it is more than likely that improvements in basic sanitation and housing are more responsible.
December 26th, 2009 at 3:20 am
After reading this I’m thinking the Nobel Peace prize maybe should have gone to the cell phone or its creator instead of Obama
Ten years that shook, rattled, rolled and helped repair the world
At the turn of the century, people didn’t just worry their computers would break. They imagined nations dissolving and ‘tribes’ ruling in ‘the coming anarchy.’ Instead, stability grew and major blows were struck against hunger, ignorance and want. Believe it or not, argues Doug Saunders, all the tumult was worth it
December 26th, 2009 at 3:28 am
Comforting….
Prescription narcotics cause more deaths than both heroin and cocaine
December 26th, 2009 at 3:33 am
Spending on Lobbying Could Break Record in 2009
Last year, $3.30 billion was spent on federal lobbying, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That was the highest figure ever calculated.
This year it could go even higher.
CFR has calculated that in the first three quarters of 2009, $2.50 billion was spent to lobby Congress and federal agencies. If the average throughout the year holds, $3.33 billion will be spent this year. And there are indications that it could go higher.
December 26th, 2009 at 3:40 am
Goldman May Move 20% of UK Staff to Spain
Goldman Sachs warns UK Treasury it may transfer 20% of its 5,000 London staff to Spain in protest over UK tax and bonuses
December 26th, 2009 at 3:46 am
Interesting political countermove
The Growing Movement to Nullify National Health Care
by Michael Boldin
In response to what some opponents see as a Congress that doesn’t represent their interests, State Legislators are looking to the nearly forgotten American political tradition of nullification as a way to reject any potential national health care program that may be coming from Washington.
December 26th, 2009 at 4:27 am
Noble Group is a commodity trading company on the rise in Asia, with an astonishing 54% rise in revenues in 2008, over 2007. Compared to all its peers, it is rising quickly in the ranks. 15% ownership made by Chinese CIC in 2009 does help and to top it the CEO is named the best businessman of the year in Asia. Stay tuned on this company’s profile in the coming years…which serves the global economy while remaining behind the scenes…
Noble’s Elman Seeks ‘Selective’ Acquisitions, 20% Annual Growth
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaIQXNnzb.Yo&pos=6
December 26th, 2009 at 8:14 am
Speaking of Asia, Michael Pettis has a new post. Has a nice, simple assessment of the two ways to deal with liquidating bad loans caused by excess liquidity. Also, an interesting comment on the low birth rate in China and its implications.
http://mpettis.com/2009/12/the-pace-of-change/comment-page-1/#comment-4231
December 26th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Common Man: that nullification stuff sounds like Rick Perry’s threat to take Texas out of hte Union: stuff for the teabaggers to dream about. He who pays the piper calls the tune and fhe Feds are paying about 90% of the pipers these days; no state could survive without money from Washington, no matter what its constitution says.
December 26th, 2009 at 8:39 am
stadiums, roflmao, just goes to show you can fool all government agencies all the time everywhere, this is the simplest of government gambits, plow money to your guy, get him elected, and he champions the project, he will thus always be known as a winner, this is the perfect no lose situation, no one has anything too lose, elected is gone, government worker will lose if he doesn’t, get er done, and the sports franchisee will contribute too someones campaign, and it’s not like he’s moving tommorrow, pretty high on my insanity meter
doc in a box, i don’t know i’ve only been visiting them at times for 18 years, same reason, put off, think get better, not, need scip, regular doc appoint 2-3 days away, box near the office, heck to be 100% honest imho my doctor, who i’ve had for 22 years and is about my age, checks in on my cause i’m probably his dream client, helping someone with there healthcare thru life, most stuff in all offices is done by physicians assistant, 50% of time my ma and gram go, never see a doctor unless neccessary, so they do what doc in the boxes do
December 26th, 2009 at 8:52 am
This is an example of where individual irresponsible behavior has led to the deaths of many thousands of good kids from all walks of life, as well as a few actors and entertainers.
Those responsible got slaps on the wrist. This episode should anger you even more than any of Wall Street’s dealings. Two of my children’s friends are dead because of overdoses involving Oxycontin.
(from Wiki)
Oxycontin-related lawsuits
Purdue Pharma L.P., is a privately-held pharmaceutical company founded by physicians and now located in Stamford, Connecticut.
Purdue has been involved in measures against prescription drug abuse, particularly of its well known Oxycontin brand. In 2001, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal issued a statement urging Purdue to take action regarding abuse of Oxycontin. Blumenthal noted that while Purdue seemed sincere, there was little action being taken beyond “cosmetic and symbolic steps.”[2] After Purdue announced plans to reformulate the drug, Blumenthal noted that this would take time, and that “Purdue Pharma has a moral, if not legal, obligation to take effective steps now that address addiction and abuse even as it works to reformulate the drug.”[3] The company has since implemented a comprehensive program designed to assist in detection of the illegal trafficking and abuse of prescription drugs without compromising patient access to proper pain control.[citation needed]
In May 2007, the company pleaded guilty to misleading the public about Oxycontin’s risk of addiction, and agreed to pay $600 million. Its president, top lawyer, and former chief medical officer pleaded guilty as individuals to misbranding charges, a criminal violation, and agreed to pay a total of $34.5 million in fines. [4][5] In addition three top executives were charged with a felony and sentenced to 400 hours of community service in drug treatment programs.[6]
On October 4, 2007 Kentucky officials sued Purdue because of widespread Oxycontin abuse in Appalachia. A lawsuit filed by Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Pike County officials demands millions in compensation from drug maker Purdue Pharma.[7]
(recent news)
Howard Udell and Purdue Pharma’s Corporate Responsibility
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/december202009/udell_ms.php
December 26th, 2009 at 9:04 am
torrie-amos:
Your comment on stadiums sounds almost like the Obama scenario with healthcare and finance. Big Business could see the freight train coming in finance and health care. While Hillary was an establishment candidate, she had shown hostility to Big Healthcare and was tenacious. Judging by her early life, she was dangerous like Earl Warren: someone who might actually take seriously an oath to serve the US seriously once in power. So, Big Business derailed the freight train by finding and backing a candidate who could make a nice speech while protecting the interests of the insurers, big pharma and big finance.
December 26th, 2009 at 9:16 am
Failing Sarah
http://www.sptimes.com/2006/08/20/Tampabay/Failing_Sarah.shtml
Brittany Murphy’s death highlights disturbing trend of prescription drug abuse
http://www.examiner.com/x-12262-Boise-Healthy-Living-Examiner~y2009m12d23-Brittany-Murphys-death-highlights-disturbing-trend-of-prescription-drug-abuse
FDA Wants Painkiller Makers To Curb Drug Abuse
http://www.injuryboard.com/national-news/fda-wants-painkiller-makers-to-curb-drug-abuse.aspx?googleid=275390
Deaths from Opioid Use Have Doubled; Five-Fold Increase in Oxycodone Deaths
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091207123105.htm
http://www.oxyabusekills.com/Grandjury.html
December 26th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Hey, I was just responding to:
How the Common Man Sees It Says:
December 26th, 2009 at 3:28 am
Comforting….
Prescription narcotics cause more deaths than both heroin and cocaine
December 26th, 2009 at 9:33 am
bsneath: while I see your point, prescription narcotics are much more widely used, so that doesn’t really prove much.
December 26th, 2009 at 9:45 am
Mike in Nola Says prescription narcotics are much more widely used, so that doesn’t really prove much.
Opioid-related deaths claim more people in Ontario than HIV
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/091207/national/opioid_deaths
Oxycodone deaths rose fivefold in Ontario after OxyContin – the brand name of a popular version of the prescription painkiller – was introduced to the public drug plan, according to a study published Monday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal. Most of the deaths were accidental,
http://www.allvoices.com/news/4762394-ontario-oxycontin-painkillers-overdose-skyrocketing
In Sixteen States and Counting: Drugs Kill More People than Auto Accidents
http://www.naturalnews.com/027216_drugs_health_oxycontin.html
December 26th, 2009 at 11:22 am
mike in nola,
I understand you’re point, imho, it’s not that simple. The Clintons were and are polarizing people, even though bill did some good things, there time in office were a comedy of errors which ended up looking like Nixon of steroids.
IMHO, Obama is classic right place, right time, right strategy. My jury is still out on who he runs with and why. We know who he is surrounded by, and whether one wants to admit, he still is more bi-partisan than most in the past.
I think he was honest in that when he came, this is not what he signed on for. He’s been dealt what he’s been dealt, and so far has taken the safe tried and true solutions to past problems as cover for the future.
I’m sure health care has enough loop holes every one is happy enough too see how things turn out, i think most realized an “effort” had to be started, where it ends, who knows, my guess is not even them.
Finance, i’m sure will be the same way, an “effort” on something with loopholes for the favored to prosper more.
The strategy is time heals all wounds, and ben will accomodate until employment picks up, etc.
It just seems like war as usual, who will win the debt battle. My guess is 50% of banks worldwide are smoke and mirrors and all governments are doing what they can too make them better and the really bad slowly die off.
My only concern going forward is who will fund who’s debt, intrinsically it does not seem logical to me, yet, powers that be have laws, armies, and control of the money.
My lesson for the decade is really understanding what these folks can and can’t do, and there’s pretty much they can’t do, or won’t do, to maintain status quo. So, the gist would be inflation before devastation, or a black swan event, another liquidity crisis……..which as has been promised will not happen.
December 26th, 2009 at 11:23 am
@mike
no state could survive without money from Washington, no matter what its constitution says.
Absolutely agree. I was thinking about that myself. The only way out for states is to show the intestinal fortitude, or as some would call it character, to not take the handouts of the greens stuff. The Feds, like any good drug dealer, has conditioned them to be dependent on the cash. There is no way they are going to let states walk out of the federal health care deal with all the cash in their pockets. That sets up those that want to be free of federal control for some very lean years ahead
It is a bit of a gamble for the feds because if the states do take the hard path and go it alone, once they become independent again, I’m sure they will make sure they are never dependent again. The feds are pretty much going all in in their final push for national control of everything. If the feds win this battle I’d say state independence is gone for good and they are states in name only from this point forward
December 26th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
really interesting summary and interpretation of John Embry’s (CIO of Sprott Asset Management) view on gold: http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Parabolic-Gold-Price-Rise-Imminent-Asserts-Gold-Bull-John-Embry
December 26th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
re: Avatar..
“MOST people will date the death of the great global warming scare not from the Copenhagen fiasco – boring! – but from Avatar.
It won’t be the world’s most expensive warmist conference but the world’s most expensive movie that will stick in most memories as the precise point at which the green faith started to shrivel from sheer stupidity.
Avatar, in fact, is the warmist dream filmed in 3D. Staring through your glasses at James Cameron’s spectacular $400 million creation, you can finally see where this global warming cult was going.
And you can see, too, everything that will now slowly pull it back to earth.
December 2009. Note it down. The beginning of the end, even as Avatar becomes possibly the biggest-grossing film in history.
Cameron, whose last colossal hit was Titanic, has created a virtual new planet called Pandora, on which humans 150 years from now have formed a small settlement.
They are there to mine a mineral so rare that it’s called Unobtainium (groan), of which the greatest deposit sits right under the great sacred tree of the planet’s dominant species, humanoid blue aliens called Na’vi.
If Tim Flannery, Al Gore and all the other Copenhagen delegates could at least agree to design a new kind of people, they’d wind up with something much like these 3m-tall gracelings.
The Na’vi live in trees, at one with nature. They worship Mother Earth and, like Gaians today, talk meaningfully of “a network of energy that flows through all living things”. They drink water that’s pooled in giant leaves, and chant around a tree that whispers of their ancestors.
They are also unusually non-sexist for a forest tribe, with the women just as free as men to hunt and choose their spouse. Naturally, like the most fashionable of Hollywood stars, they are also neo-Buddhist reincarnationists, who believe “all energy is borrowed and some day you have to give it back”.
And, of course, the Na’vi reject all technology that’s more advanced than a bow and arrow, for “the wealth of the world is all around us”.
Sent to talk dollars and sense into these blue New Agers and move them out of the way of the bulldozers is a former Marine, Jake Sully (played by Australian Sam Worthington), who drives the body of a Na’vi avatar to better gain their trust…
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_avatar_the_answer_to_a_copenhagens_dream/
December 26th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
@MEH
I was wondering when that movie was going to come crashing through the forest into this blog. Can’t wait to see BRs take on it. Haven’t seen it yet myself and will probably wait until it’s ten bucks on Ebay ;)
December 26th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
HTCMSI,
I hear you, though, others had been mentioning it, see above..~
~~
though, from • Wired for War: Interesting new blog about the “Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st” Century
“What happens when science fiction becomes battlefield reality?
An amazing revolution is taking place on the battlefield, starting to change not just how wars are fought, but also the politics, economics, laws, and ethics that surround war itself. This upheaval is already afoot — remote-controlled drones take out terrorists in Afghanistan, while the number of unmanned systems on the ground in Iraq has gone from zero to 12,000 over the last five years. But it is only the start. Military officers quietly acknowledge that new prototypes will soon make human fighter pilots obsolete, while the Pentagon researches tiny robots the size of flies to carry out reconnaissance work now handled by elite Special Forces troops…”
People should, really, understand what kind of ‘practice field’, for the assembled Militaries, that Iraq & Afghanistan, et al., have been..
Nothing has been a bigger boon to the “168. Track n’ Trace ‘Economy’”
wade through this site • http://www.eagleeyemovie.com/ past the trailer, click on ‘the film’, see ‘production notes’..
it’s telling that ‘the reviewers’ are lined-up, vociferously, against this movie..esp. in contrast to their, near worship, of ‘Avatar’..
December 26th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Pardon the snub LLouis :oops:
December 26th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
“The honest truth is that nobody in the world has ever seen a movie like Avatar” said Pali Capital analyst Richard Greenfield, in this article about AVATAR’s financial impact on the movie and game industry:
http://industry.bnet.com/media/10005613/avatars-catalytic-impact-on-future-3d-tv-and-film/
Great comment M E Hoffer, the main motivation for the paraplegic Jake Sully, to take up his brother’s mission, is a chance to have access for an operation to regain his legs. In this futuristic movie, only the privileged have access to the most advanced medical care…
Everything you want to know about the movie here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_(2009_film)
All the new technology behind the movie:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/industry/4339455.html?page=1
As I finish typing my comment, my patio window is pelleted and covered by freezing rain here in Montreal, of course no such weather on Pandora…
December 27th, 2009 at 12:15 am
Cheney’s LIVID that this guy didn’t succeed. He wants an “I.. told.. you… so…”
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/12/26/general-us-airliner-attack-intelligence_7239275.html
Why can’t Mr. Undisclosed Location (he’s a hider, like Palin’s a quitter) accept our Commander-in-Chief’s successes with grace.
Why doesn’t Cheney laud these successes? He should at least be trying to “tie them back to Bush policies.”
Well, maybe because he would be laughed at? …just like how he was laughed at when he let Saddam Hussein off the hook in the early 90′s?
Got it. Go Cheney. Keep on telling us how Obama has failed. Thanks.