Employment Chart Round-Up
By Barry Ritholtz - December 5th, 2009, 12:00PM
Okay, chart fans: Here are some of the more informative, telling and fascinating charts tha the December 4 Non-Farm payroll helped to produce:
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Total Non-Farm Payroll (Scale: Millions of Workers)
click for ginormous charts
courtesy of Bianco Research
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Comparing Job Changes During Recessions
via Chart of the Day
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Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions (December 2009)
via Calculated Risk
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Expect Big NFP Revisions
courtesy of Bianco Research
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Click through for more charts
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Comparing Long-Term Unemployment: 1999-2009
chart by RM courtesy of Ritholtz.com
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Household Debt to Disposable Personal Income Ratio
chart courtesy of Invesco/AIM
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Labor Data November 2009
courtesy of NYT
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US Unemployment Rate (1941-2009)
courtesy of Bianco Research
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Under-Employment: Part Time for Economic Reasons
via Calculated Risk
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Signs of a Turnaround?
courtesy of NYT
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December 5th, 2009 at 7:58 am
I might have missed one or two — there is limited bandwidth on the ship -=– I could not get this WSJ interactive chart to load . . .
December 5th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
As the third chart shows, most recessions have totally erased all job losses by now…we have not even turned up yet. I also see debt to income is still at unsustainable levels…the good news, it is now down to only about double where it should be.
December 5th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
An extended differential between unemployment at education levels may have a lasting cultural impact. Will we as a country continue to denigrate education? Probably, but hopefully not.
December 5th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
This isn’t a jobless recovery – it’s a “job loss” recovery.
December 5th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Between the IMS nonmfg, the Floyd Norris piece and these charts, I am starting to feel really crummy.
It looks as though we stand a very good chance of entering the second “V” of a W shaped recession/depression.
I hope all of the government officials keep their pedals to the metal. The future inflation risk should be far less of a concern than the great depression risk if the economy contracts again. Just think of the ramifications of another say 5% – 10% drop in employment. The only good news would be that the Investment Banks would finally agree to change their bonus practices. (last sentence is in sarcasm font)
December 5th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Barry thanks for providing some great charts while on the cruise.
I find it funny at best that the market didn’t seem to notice that ~0.6% of the people claiming unemployment insurance just went without that insurance and people think things are going to get better. The same store sales and fact that people are now without unemployment income directly tell that story.
The interest rate has now been low for a substantial amount of time and yet there appears to be no effect on revenues/earnings.
Local data from my area in Allentown, PA:
I went out to dinner with a group of 13 people last week. The group was random (a meetup.com event). Many during dinner were talking about selling homes and looking for work, unemployed etc. Eventually the conversation got around to how many people actually had jobs. We were all astonished to find out that only 5 out of the 13 at dinner were employed.
December 5th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
What was the Birth-Death “adjustment” factor in yesterday’s numbers? At what point in the cycle does the B/D factor begin to have some validity , as new businesses are genuinely being formed? The answer almost certainly is “not yet, by a mile”, but when?
December 5th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
any thoughts along this front …
1. are the hire’g managers directed by upper officers willing to shoot the economy in the foot to put the under class in a particular place for world growth? (or some other scheme)?
2. (and/or) paybacks for a Dem POTUS (of flavor) when the puppet string pullers wanted some other flavor of power? You know Bonus Schedules and all that.
in other words “paybacks for motherbangers”
Cheap Trick – “Surrender”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LajhFqyEpfQ
3. (or) is just a rebalance’g traders phase for repo session and some-ones future growth?
inquire’g minds want to know
December 5th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
CTB:
As they say regarding stocks: Being “educated” in America is no indicator of future performance. We’ve all met morons with master’s degrees. Educationally, we are consistently outclassed by the Asian nations (I think this is cultural and can be tied directly to US hegemony over the past 70 ears, or so), and the difference is becoming all the more glaring as globalization forces a parity among the world’s middle classes. The lasting cultural impact of our current system will be grandpappy telling the kids about how he borrowed a quarter of a million bucks to get a piece of paper, but could never find a job that paid enough to make good on the loan.
December 5th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Thanks B for the Job revisions visual from Bianco!
December 5th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Even if we accept the B – -LS – - – data as valid, beyond this glimmer of hope the long term secular cyclical improvement in joblessness looks questionable as The Economic Cycle Research Institute indicates.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121087285
December 5th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Marcus Aurelius Says: “…this is cultural and can be tied directly to US hegemony”…” “….and the difference is becoming all the more glaring as globalization forces a parity among the world’s middle classes….”
The present changes in these two forces are profound and are not fully understood by a populace that is still in shock over what caused the decline in their living standards.
They apparently are not well understood by our politicians on both the right and the left who are clinging to traditional methods and solutions that will no longer work.
On the right it is cut capital gains taxes and deficits. On the left it is increase the size of government programs.
December 5th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Marcus Aurelius Says:
As they say regarding stocks: Being “educated” in America is no indicator of future performance. We’ve all met morons with master’s degrees. Educationally, we are consistently outclassed by the Asian nations (I think this is cultural and can be tied directly to US hegemony over the past 70 ears, or so), and the difference is becoming all the more glaring as globalization forces a parity among the world’s middle classes
I am afraid that morons with masters degrees are an equal opportunity for any and all countries.
but i do think that the great equalization of standards of living are coming, and short of really doing some thing about that, the economy will never ever be back where it was.
The US has been exporting jobs (and incomes) with nothing to replace them. its the equivalent of a business giving sales to another business and then wondering why they aren’t doing better.
December 5th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Marcus A is on to something…EVERY social manifestation, good or bad, is cultural, which is to say religious. I am using religious in both the traditional and broader sense, i.e. “things to which we bind ourselves fast”. At this stage of development the asians (with exceptions like the nips that make my point) still believe in something (ancestors, progress of man, takin’ down the roundeye….?) and we don’t. Learning grows out of curiousity, and curiousity is not possible without belief. The leftist clowns who run the West realize this and offer the masses earth worship (global warming etc..) as a raison d’etre. Wizard of OZ anyone? Personally, I think we are on a one way trip down the crapper, and nothing is going to slow it down. Maybe our great grandkids will rise out of the mire, and if they do they are going to look back on the boomers with utter contempt. We were given a great legacy and we pissed it away.
December 5th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
WHy doesn’t anybody look at Household debt service to GDP???? The debt to GDP is incorrect. It is
like comparing a balance sheet to an income statement.
December 5th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Well, here it comes Stimulus II-170 Billion, u can bank on it, why? 100 billion too states, who would now be laying off like crazy cause there are so not near there balanced budget by law, so, another year of trying to put off the inevitable…..70 B for projects, which will just basically allow maintenance on existing infrastructure. Hate too say it, Obama will regret Allentown, it will be his Mission Accomplished moment…………..Obama jobs program, weatherize homes, and more efficient commercial buildings, roflmao, the assumption of commercial buildings are not working at peak performance is totally unrealistic, any building built in the last 20 years is computerized controlled, weatherization runs 2-3 bucks a square foot, and has a high roi because people use based on total comfort, the only way to truly cut a homes energy cost is too shut things off, people will not be willing to accept that discomfort…………………….imho, 15k tax credit for solarizing a home cuts down the roi by 50% and will pull forward demand and cut costs to hit the S curve sooner on declining price similar to pc and cell phone industry by 7-10 years………….
December 5th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
IMHO, the cultural shift is an economy built on leverage with a cheap energy component to it, you take one away you have problems, you take both, balance sheets and budgets are impaired………..the swan song of we need manufacturing, which is the highest energy usage of any pure business and tell me who will take the risk right now??? what will you budget for costs…..GM and detroit held on for 20 years with declining sales and rising costs, wherein the last ten there money was made on loans, until sales hit a bad patch and it was all over in one year, it just seems that that is an adequate path for local and national governments, verses addressing the core problems……………….GM did not die due too competition, it died due to dysfunction and competition……………..once gm kicked out perot the upper management took big bonuses during bad times, with a union the union fought back, we will do like our leaders, and the leaders aquised enough because they wanted there own bonuses, along the way they got twenty years of bad press, always fighting one another, bad cars, blah blah blah, well you hear bad news for twenty years it influences decisions on purchases………..we now have set up a two party american where we know the elite rips off the government thru lobbyists, laws, and special priveledges, neither of us believe it is the right thing to do, yet, when the fox is watching the hen house and it is deemed foxes will always watch hen houses, what is left for the others to do, imho, people were prepared and ready for change we could believe in and in one year it has disapeared, actions point to business as usual, which leaves most too belief it is each man or women for themselves
December 5th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Although I’d love to join you ladies in the pity party, I haven’t the time. I found this graphic illustrating the difference in the “with stimulus” and “without stimulus” scenarios interesting though:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/11/21/business/21stimulus_graphic/popup.jpg
December 5th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Has anyone considered this?????
Gov’t did stress test on banks and knows which ones are likely in bad shape. Well, what if they know BAC is in dire straits and want the TARP money back. They wait a few months until after the stress test when everything seems okay as to not draw any attention and get the money back for TARP before BAC goes bust. It was some $45B lent to BAC right? That would be a lot of money for the gov’t to lose.
December 5th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
BR – You’ve done a wonderful and noble thing here. Very useful. Thanks
December 5th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
brodero Says:
December 5th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
WHy doesn’t anybody look at Household debt service to GDP???? The debt to GDP is incorrect. It is
like comparing a balance sheet to an income statement.
maybe because it created a lot of the GDP? and to actually get real GDP growth debt has to go down?
December 5th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Steve Barry Says:
December 5th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
As the third chart shows, most recessions have totally erased all job losses by now…we have not even turned up yet. I also see debt to income is still at unsustainable levels…the good news, it is now down to only about double where it should be.
———-
Your Post is Brief and “to the point.” I read it the same way. Short and Simple……WE ARE SCREWED for MANY YEARS….
December 5th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
@torrie-amos Says:
December 5th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
IMHO, the cultural shift is an economy built on leverage with a cheap energy component to it, you take one away you have problems, you take both, balance sheets and budgets are impaired………..the swan song of we need manufacturing, which is the highest energy usage of any pure business and tell me who will take the risk right now??? what will you budget for costs…..GM and detroit held on for 20 years with declining sales and rising costs, wherein the last ten there money was made on loans, until sales hit a bad patch and it was all over in one year, it just seems that that is an adequate path for local and national governments, verses addressing the core problems
—————–
Obama and the Economists who have “his ear” say: “Manufacturing Jobs are Not Coming Back” …we need to Deal with this! (Full caps emphasis mine…but Obama said this in his “Jobs speech in PA…just this week.”
Others have said that “Productivity” means that we have robots and technology filling jobs that used to be done by the many and we need to “wake up and get over it that China is better at producing IMHO “Substandard cheap plastic goods (filled with Melamine/Dry Wall Fumes/Lead in our Kids and Adult Toys and all the rest of their slipshod goods which don’t meat even the minimal FDA standards for American Quality Products after Reagan!
You want SAFE GOODS? PRODUCTS THAT DON’T Catch on fire, poison you, your kids, your pets or your surgical, pharma or whatever when you undergo surgery in your hospital for “Knee, Ligament or Major Surgery…or go in for an Apendectomy, Colon, Heart or Thoracic, etc. …..you better hope it doesn’t have a component that came from CHINA which has no FDA of even the most primary kind…because China’s job is to Produce and to BYPASS any ENVIRONMENTAL OR FDA GUIDLINES of the most MINIMAL of US Standards.
Just remember what we get out of the Global Trade Off. And, remember that what we got in the bargain is what all those “slave workers” get when they go into Hospital. But the World’s Wealthy have their own special places where they get the “TOP GOODS.” They don’t have to get the kind of care the rest of us get…because they are SPECIAL.
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December 6th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
Re: “Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions (December 2009)” chart
The take-out message from this chart is the steeper a decline, the steeper a rise.
Contrary to what the bears keep saying to scare the retail investors, this chart actually strengthens the argument for a V-shaped recovery.
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