Comments on: Interesting jobs data point for the weekend http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 23:06:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: Climategate http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239756 Climategate Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:49:45 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239756 "Based on the last two recessions, we’re still more than a year away from a sustained decline in the jobless rate." I have a slightly different view. The improvement from 10% down to 8-9% will be relatively fast (job cuts were greatly overdone [driven by emotional fear of the Great Depression II]; therefore, we should get a relatively brisk uptick in re-hiring). The hardest part will be pushing it below 8% -- could take 18-24 months. “Based on the last two recessions, we’re still more than a year away from a sustained decline in the jobless rate.”

I have a slightly different view.

The improvement from 10% down to 8-9% will be relatively fast (job cuts were greatly overdone [driven by emotional fear of the Great Depression II]; therefore, we should get a relatively brisk uptick in re-hiring).

The hardest part will be pushing it below 8% — could take 18-24 months.

]]> By: Mark E Hoffer http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239738 Mark E Hoffer Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:49:35 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239738 "It took 10 months (from September 1982 until June 1983) for the rate to drop below 10%. And it was not until January 1986 that the rate dropped below 7%." --cgb22, above and, previously, "I think the most applicable history to consider is 1982-1983", ibid. cgb22, you mean, back then, when We were a Net Creditor, is relevant to our situation, now, when We are the World's, foremost, Net Debtor? could you explain how that works? “It took 10 months (from September 1982 until June 1983) for the rate to drop below 10%. And it was not until January 1986 that the rate dropped below 7%.” –cgb22, above

and, previously, “I think the most applicable history to consider is 1982-1983″, ibid.

cgb22,

you mean, back then, when We were a Net Creditor, is relevant to our situation, now, when We are the World’s, foremost, Net Debtor?

could you explain how that works?

]]> By: Paul Jones http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239729 Paul Jones Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:17:54 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239729 It's called a Green Jobs program 1) Draws upon all levels of labor (skilled, semi-skilled, and un-skilled). 2) Is good for the environment. 3) Gives the decimated manufacturing base something to build upon besides warfare. 4) Can eliminate our dependency on oil imports. It’s called a Green Jobs program

1) Draws upon all levels of labor (skilled, semi-skilled, and un-skilled).

2) Is good for the environment.

3) Gives the decimated manufacturing base something to build upon besides warfare.

4) Can eliminate our dependency on oil imports.

]]> By: torrie-amos http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239719 torrie-amos Sun, 06 Dec 2009 13:50:15 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239719 my first job was 81 after college, what came was massive military spending, the golden age of tech, rebound in real estate and lower oil prices, thus, the jobs were real..................now, I just don't see where future growth comes from my first job was 81 after college, what came was massive military spending, the golden age of tech, rebound in real estate and lower oil prices, thus, the jobs were real………………now, I just don’t see where future growth comes from

]]> By: cgb22 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239697 cgb22 Sun, 06 Dec 2009 08:31:38 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239697 I think the most applicable history to consider is 1982-1983, the last time the unemployment rate was above 10%. It came after a rapid uptick in oil prices and a crash in real estate activity thanks to high interest rates. It took 10 months (from September 1982 until June 1983) for the rate to drop below 10%. And it was not until January 1986 that the rate dropped below 7%. My sense is that the next six months will be frustrating. It will seem like nothing is happening, and we will be whipsawed emotionally by the volatility created by the revisions to each month's data. Given the severity of the 2007-2009 market crash, however, one should not be surprised. And, yes, it will be hard to be patient. I think the most applicable history to consider is 1982-1983, the last time the unemployment rate was above 10%. It came after a rapid uptick in oil prices and a crash in real estate activity thanks to high interest rates.

It took 10 months (from September 1982 until June 1983) for the rate to drop below 10%. And it was not until January 1986 that the rate dropped below 7%.

My sense is that the next six months will be frustrating. It will seem like nothing is happening, and we will be whipsawed emotionally by the volatility created by the revisions to each month’s data.

Given the severity of the 2007-2009 market crash, however, one should not be surprised. And, yes, it will be hard to be patient.

]]> By: jzenemig http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239685 jzenemig Sun, 06 Dec 2009 03:12:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239685 I am a very good friend of the guy in the picture. He does have a Ph. D. and an MBA. He is very successful. I have just sent him the link so that he can explain the story behind the picture. I am a very good friend of the guy in the picture. He does have a Ph. D. and an MBA. He is very successful. I have just sent him the link so that he can explain the story behind the picture.

]]> By: Space_Cowboy_NW http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239675 Space_Cowboy_NW Sun, 06 Dec 2009 02:24:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239675 Re absinthe "That’s like bragging it took you 8 years to finish college" Actually took me 15 years for an undergrad (bs in ops mgmt & finance) as I did not know I had ADD and multiple LD's (learning disabilities). Oh, I also taught flying and flew air freight at all hours of the night while also working as a machinst in fab shops part time. Not much of a life. Would have just as soon been in a war zone for the frustration I experienced. Btw That was in my mid 30's as the secondary edu journey included learning from the 'ground up' what primary edu did not teach me. Does that make me stupid (something primary edu of the 1960's did its best to instill) and you (and others on this board) feel esteemed? Happy Holidays...... Re absinthe

“That’s like bragging it took you 8 years to finish college”

Actually took me 15 years for an undergrad (bs in ops mgmt & finance) as I did not know I had ADD
and multiple LD’s (learning disabilities). Oh, I also taught flying and flew air freight at all hours of the night while also working as a machinst in fab shops part time. Not much of a life. Would have just as soon been in a war zone for the frustration I experienced.

Btw That was in my mid 30′s as the secondary edu journey included learning from the ‘ground up’ what primary edu did not teach me.

Does that make me stupid (something primary edu of the 1960′s did its best to instill) and you (and others on this board) feel esteemed?

Happy Holidays……

]]> By: Jack Gavin http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239665 Jack Gavin Sun, 06 Dec 2009 01:21:32 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239665 PhD in what? 6 pubs might be worse than none. Norris is ecstatic over his stat "find". Will agony follow? PhD in what? 6 pubs might be worse than none.

Norris is ecstatic over his stat “find”. Will agony follow?

]]> By: super_trooper http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239658 super_trooper Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:24:01 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239658 That picture must be a joke. Graduate school, 3 postdocs and only 6 publications (were any even first authored? Know when to quit, publish or perish. That picture must be a joke. Graduate school, 3 postdocs and only 6 publications (were any even first authored? Know when to quit, publish or perish.

]]> By: absinthe http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/interesting-jobs-data-point-for-the-weekend/comment-page-1/#comment-239648 absinthe Sat, 05 Dec 2009 23:00:39 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45397#comment-239648 This guy did a PhD and three post-docs and only has 6 papers published? No wonder he's on the street. That's like bragging it took you 8 years to finish college. This guy did a PhD and three post-docs and only has 6 papers published? No wonder he’s on the street. That’s like bragging it took you 8 years to finish college.

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