Payrolls are expected to fall by 125k in Nov, down from a drop of 190k in Oct and it would be the smallest rate of decline since March ’08 but would mark the 23rd month in a row of job losses. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 10.2%. The clues on today’s # have been a weak ADP report, a fall in the employment component of the ISM manufacturing data but remaining above 50, subdued employment in the ISM services index at 41.6, and still elevated levels of people collecting longer term unemployment insurance, partially offset by the one bright spot which has been the fall in the pace of firings as measured by initial jobless claims. The jobs report in Canada was a great, pleasant surprise, rising by 79.1k, well above the estimate of +15k and the Canadian$ is rising sharply in response. The yen is down for a 4th day and the Nikkei is rising above 10k for the 1st time since Oct 30th.
