NBER Members: Recession Over, Date TBD
I am still digging out from my trip, but this certainly caught my eye: NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear.
Two of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee members, including its chairman, now say the recession is over, even if the precise date is unclear.
Robert Hall, chair of NBER’s Recession Dating Committee, said as much in a recent Bloomberg interview:
“Today’s report makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around this month. The trough in output was probably some time in the summer. The committee will need to balance the midyear date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.”
Another member of the committee, Harvard University professor Jeffrey Frankel, estimated the most recession end date as midyear.
The key factors: Improving labor market and expanding output.
Details at link . . .
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Source:
NBER’s Hall Says Recession May Be Over, Month Unclear
Steve Matthews
Bloomberg, Dec. 4 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQVKjBGgREbY&pos=3
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December 7th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
And TARP is turning a profit as well (the portion lent to banks):
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/business/07tarp.html?_r=2&dbk
December 7th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Dumbass (that’s pronounced “DU MOSS”) of Dufus and Associates says World May End, Month Unclear.
December 7th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
From a statistical standpoint, leading indicators are pointing up, but I think the NBER needs to preface all comments about “recession over” to include the words “new normal”.
In other words, it ain’t goin’ back to the way it was anytime soon.
December 7th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
When did employment as a concern simply get dropped from all considerations by economists and finance types?
When I am king, you will be first against the wall.
December 7th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
the year may be over, recession unclear
December 7th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Hmmm, per Rosie’s daily on 12/1:
Four items that go into the NBER recession call:
1. Employment
2. Real personal income excluding government transfers
3. Industrial Production
4. Real sales
On 12/1 Rose said:
“Three of these four indicators are still in decline – only industrial production looks to have even remotely put in a discernible bottom”
Meanwhile, Dave points out:
1 in 8
are with a mortgage either in arrears or in the foreclosure process
are unemployed or underemployed
are on a food stamp program
Glad to see one data point can help clear this up so much Mr. Hall.
December 7th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Actually, the NAI (National Activity Index) from the Chicago Fed has a much better track record than NBER in real time spotting of the start and end of recessions. NBER is usually months late.
And the NAI says the recession is not over. Right now the 3 month moving average is at -1.08 (a decline from the previous reading), while the index at the end of a recession should be at least 0.2.
http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_november2009.pdf
December 7th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
Well I suppose if you use numbers like GDP which would make Arthur Anderson and Enron blush, or look like choir boys you can utter such senseless stupidity.
I’ll listen to the finer blogs like this one and a handful of others. I’ll listen to John Williams http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/12/4_John_Williams_files/John%20Williams%2012:4:2009.mp3
I do agree that with 22% unemployment that the recession has indeed ended – and the depression has begun.
Cheers!