Tomorrow is a big jobs report:
ADP data was ugly; We have not seen much implying this is going to be anything reflecting improvement in the labor market .
What is your view? Is this going to be a pleasant surprise, or is NFP gonna stink the joint up tomorrow.
What say ye?
Do not value money for any more nor any less than its worth; it is a good servant but a bad master. ~Alexandre Dumas fils, Camille, 1852
The US$ is at the high of the day vs the euro coincident with Greek CDS at the wides of the morning by 20 bps to 307 bps following the news this morning. This level is a 2 week high. In sympathy, CDS is wider in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland. Bond yields are higher too and Greek stocks in particular closed down 3.4%. There is also an idiotic rumor out there that the Fed is again going to raise the discount rate after doing so a month ago. While they easily may but likely won't anytime soon, there is...
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December 3rd, 2009 at 8:27 pm
el stinko
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Does it matter?
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:33 pm
i opined on this on another thread- my guess is the sell off this afternoon was because of advance notice on what tomorrow is going to look like-
ZH indicated that Gibbs (BO’s press sec) so much as said that the jobless rate was going up tomorrow-
but who knows- maybe it’s a big sandbag scenario- setting up the “in to know” to get in low at the close so they can make the big change tomorrow-
i don’t trust anything or anybody anymore
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:37 pm
bohemian,
I thought about the afternoon selloff as being a headfake but there wasn’t any bounce in the futures and we sold off and ended pretty close to the lows.
I think we may have seen smart money leaving today.
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Be careful, Marc399.
No problem for the TBTF’s to raise money with explicit Fed backing ad infinitum.
BofA Raises $19.3 Billion
by CalculatedRisk on 12/03/2009 08:30:00 PM
From Bloomberg: Bank of America Raises $19.3 Billion in Share Sale at $15 Each
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/bofa-raises-193-billion.html
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:50 pm
This was a comment headed for the Doug Kass post (basically his sarcastic list of things to be “grateful” for).
Said post vanished as this comment was being entered.
Since I already put this much effort into it, I’m submitting it here.
There are so many things to be grateful for. Where to even start?
* I’m grateful that stock price is directly related to a company’s fundamentals.
* I’m grateful that companies always release clear, honest, and unambiguous financials.
* I’m grateful that everything is already priced into the market, and that efficient market theory really works.
* I’m grateful that pricing is never pegged to option expiration.
* I’m grateful that all economists are completely correct and in agreement about everything.
* I’m grateful that the system works for me and not against me.
* I’m grateful that insider trading never happens.
* I’m grateful that frontrunning is only found in science fiction stories.
* I’m grateful that the financial press is there to watch out for me.
* I’m grateful that the myriad seemingly capricious trading rules are there for my protection.
* I’m grateful that drawing lines all over historical stock charts makes me money.
* I’m grateful that I can always buy or sell all of what I want, when I want, at the price I want.
* I’m grateful that nobody views my stop orders simply in order to screw me.
* I’m grateful that the hundreds of pounds of market-related books I’ve bought haven’t collapsed my floor.
* I’m grateful that the tax laws are simple, and thanks to excellent reporting from my broker, it only takes a month to complete Schedule D.
* I’m grateful my computers never crash, never lose data, and my backups restore.
* I’m grateful that my connection never goes down at the worst possible time.
Finally:
* I’m grateful that Ritholtz’ Blog doesn’t drop a post mid-comment so that all this clever work is lost. Nice try — but I use Copy/Paste.
* I’m grateful that WordPress handles fonts correctly so that those of us who are stuck with Internet Explorer don’t have to stand a quarter
mile from the screen to read TBP because of the inadvertent huge font size.
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:53 pm
no shit bergsten-
i posted on that same post- but alas it disappeared and so did my post
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:00 pm
@Bohemian — Yeah, tell me about it. I would be really pissed, but for today’s RobotTrader over on ZH.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:01 pm
Does the market respond significantly to any numbers these days? My guess is that NFP will be “better than expected” but only in a small way.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:08 pm
bergsten-
yeah- RobotTrader- his posts are always worth a look no matter the topic
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Doug Kass–”Time to Sell” 12-3-09. I think he said that in august though, and i said it in October. My target was 3% off of the latest high currently though. We’ll see what happens. Where’s Ole HW btw. Can’t take the heat?
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:16 pm
the market’s 3pm nosedive told u everything u needed to know about what tomorrow’s numbers will bring.
the only gainfully employed people work at TARP-supported enterprises
sux
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Also, per the thread direction: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoLEmvgexD_s
Probably worse jobs numbers.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Most statistics are too undependable. The bottom line is that jobs continue to be destroyed by the weak economy and government policies which PUNISH productive economic activity. While the statistics and headlines may claim to show improvement / growth / hope / change, the reality is very sobering.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Oh I get it. Most readers here don’t care much about the long-term employment trends, just the NFP stat for a quick trade?
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:17 pm
First, we think the font size should be fixed.
Jobs number is randomly wrong. As came out a week or so ago, the birth death model has undercounted by 800k. So, any particular reading should not be counted too heavily.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:27 pm
I’m not sure what started the font size business. It happens under Internet Explorer, but not under Firefox or Opera (don’t remember whether I tried Safari). It seems that Barry and/or WordPress (or some IE incompatibility) has a problem resetting a font change back at the end of a post, so everything following it is HUGE.
I took several screen snapshots and sent them to our esteemed leader who, uncharacteristically seems to have ignored them.
Oh yeah, and we mere “commenters” can’t diddle the font size back — this is HTML that WP strips from comments.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:38 pm
Since the open thread, another pertinent link which expresses what i have been espousing the past year: http://www.businessinsider.com/smithers-stocks-40-percent-overvalued
These are some of the same tactics i used to come across my views, however, so confirmation bias is rampant. The major difference is, we hadn’t taken into account the factor of the fed’s actions and devaluation of the currency when forecasting these events. History shows a financial conundrum of this magnitude should result in an ultimate panic and ennui that realizes close to single digit P/Es when nobody wants to (or can afford to) “invest” in equities any longer. This is part of the theory behind my view that a W is still the most probable outcome. The other part is the massive reduction in available funds to support the consumer spending that is the majority basis of the United States economy. As stated by many before, the deleveraging of the consumer is a painful and necessary process. The government is trying to help the situation by printing cash, but the cash is not fully making it to the final sources, and is being horded to stiptic the wounds of those with a stronger position if power instead of circulated as per the desired effect. Therefore, it will ultimately fail again, IMO until the correct solution and the time necessary to get there converge upon one another and we slog out. Still, the side effects of investing in companies with strong balance sheets, constant demand, and rising margins due to the QEueasing and devaluation of the currency, and constant FCF and dividends also IMO remains a decent strategy to hedge against the spectre of historically low rates of return in other areas and loss of purchasing power of your benjamins for things you REALLY need.
December 3rd, 2009 at 11:01 pm
I have been watching this market for over two years. For the last several years I have been asking my wife who is buying these $750-1MM homes? I have watched people spend well beyond their means. I am hoping the numbers are terrible. I at this point I do not trust any of the numbers presented by the government. My wife says I sound like a conspircay theorist. At this point, all I want to be is right about where we are heading and they I want to sit back and watch the ship sink. I have seen Bernanke try to paper over the big gash in the Titanic hoping to keep the boat floating. Its just a matter of time to the shit hits the fan and the fat cats and thiefs go down in a blaze of glory. I know this sounds bitter but at this point I would rather be right then make money. But, I decided to act like a bank and start playing the market short. Its like a hedge against my job. If I am wrong, then I will earn my way out of the hole I would have dugg for my self. However, If I am right, which I am, there will be nothing like the smell of napalm in the morning as the banks, insurance companies and the other theives are all distroyed.
What say you?
December 4th, 2009 at 12:50 am
Off topic, but CNBC’s Erin Burnett was all over the Dubai risks…..NOT
http://gawker.com/5416754/financial-reporter-jokes-with-matt-lauer-as-dubai-crumbles
December 4th, 2009 at 5:24 am
Goldman has to reduce it’s VAR by Friday per it’s exemption from the beginning of the year, so my bias is they have been dumping longs, and will for the next month or so. States and counties will be the new leaders in lay-offs. IMHO, we are not creating jobs, people are just going off unemployment and stacking up like cars at Long Beach last year. Pull em back, Pull em back, way back.
December 4th, 2009 at 10:29 am
My guess is 11,000 jobs lost. Unemployment down to 10%.