Comments on: NFP: Open Thread

By: Super-Anon

Super-Anon — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:29:42 +0000

My guess is 11,000 jobs lost. Unemployment down to 10%.

By: torrie-amos

torrie-amos — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 10:24:51 +0000

Goldman has to reduce it’s VAR by Friday per it’s exemption from the beginning of the year, so my bias is they have been dumping longs, and will for the next month or so. States and counties will be the new leaders in lay-offs. IMHO, we are not creating jobs, people are just going off unemployment and stacking up like cars at Long Beach last year. Pull em back, Pull em back, way back.

By: TripleB

TripleB — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 05:50:37 +0000

Off topic, but CNBC’s Erin Burnett was all over the Dubai risks…..NOT

http://gawker.com/5416754/financial-reporter-jokes-with-matt-lauer-as-dubai-crumbles

By: kguflaw

kguflaw — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:01:14 +0000

I have been watching this market for over two years. For the last several years I have been asking my wife who is buying these $750-1MM homes? I have watched people spend well beyond their means. I am hoping the numbers are terrible. I at this point I do not trust any of the numbers presented by the government. My wife says I sound like a conspircay theorist. At this point, all I want to be is right about where we are heading and they I want to sit back and watch the ship sink. I have seen Bernanke try to paper over the big gash in the Titanic hoping to keep the boat floating. Its just a matter of time to the shit hits the fan and the fat cats and thiefs go down in a blaze of glory. I know this sounds bitter but at this point I would rather be right then make money. But, I decided to act like a bank and start playing the market short. Its like a hedge against my job. If I am wrong, then I will earn my way out of the hole I would have dugg for my self. However, If I am right, which I am, there will be nothing like the smell of napalm in the morning as the banks, insurance companies and the other theives are all distroyed.

What say you?

By: DiggidyDan

DiggidyDan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:38:41 +0000

Since the open thread, another pertinent link which expresses what i have been espousing the past year: http://www.businessinsider.com/smithers-stocks-40-percent-overvalued
These are some of the same tactics i used to come across my views, however, so confirmation bias is rampant. The major difference is, we hadn’t taken into account the factor of the fed’s actions and devaluation of the currency when forecasting these events. History shows a financial conundrum of this magnitude should result in an ultimate panic and ennui that realizes close to single digit P/Es when nobody wants to (or can afford to) “invest” in equities any longer. This is part of the theory behind my view that a W is still the most probable outcome. The other part is the massive reduction in available funds to support the consumer spending that is the majority basis of the United States economy. As stated by many before, the deleveraging of the consumer is a painful and necessary process. The government is trying to help the situation by printing cash, but the cash is not fully making it to the final sources, and is being horded to stiptic the wounds of those with a stronger position if power instead of circulated as per the desired effect. Therefore, it will ultimately fail again, IMO until the correct solution and the time necessary to get there converge upon one another and we slog out. Still, the side effects of investing in companies with strong balance sheets, constant demand, and rising margins due to the QEueasing and devaluation of the currency, and constant FCF and dividends also IMO remains a decent strategy to hedge against the spectre of historically low rates of return in other areas and loss of purchasing power of your benjamins for things you REALLY need.

By: bergsten

bergsten — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:27:38 +0000

I’m not sure what started the font size business. It happens under Internet Explorer, but not under Firefox or Opera (don’t remember whether I tried Safari). It seems that Barry and/or WordPress (or some IE incompatibility) has a problem resetting a font change back at the end of a post, so everything following it is HUGE.

I took several screen snapshots and sent them to our esteemed leader who, uncharacteristically seems to have ignored them.

Oh yeah, and we mere “commenters” can’t diddle the font size back — this is HTML that WP strips from comments.

By: Mike in Nola

Mike in Nola — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:17:29 +0000

First, we think the font size should be fixed.

Jobs number is randomly wrong. As came out a week or so ago, the birth death model has undercounted by 800k. So, any particular reading should not be counted too heavily.

By: tawm

tawm — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:06:21 +0000

Oh I get it. Most readers here don’t care much about the long-term employment trends, just the NFP stat for a quick trade?

By: tawm

tawm — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:57:31 +0000

Most statistics are too undependable. The bottom line is that jobs continue to be destroyed by the weak economy and government policies which PUNISH productive economic activity. While the statistics and headlines may claim to show improvement / growth / hope / change, the reality is very sobering.

By: DiggidyDan

DiggidyDan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:18:35 +0000

Also, per the thread direction: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoLEmvgexD_s

Probably worse jobs numbers.