Greek yields spiking again and ‘irrational exuberance’ in Hong Kong?

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By Peter Boockvar - December 17th, 2009, 7:52AM

Greek bonds didn’t respond well to yesterday’s S&P downgrade to BBB+. Their 10 yr yield is spiking another 29 bps to 5.80% and is up 50 bps on the week to the highest level since March. Greek 5 yr CDS is also rising to the most since March. As a result, the euro is falling to a fresh 3 month low and European stocks are down with Greece down more than 2%. The safer European bonds such as Germany and France are seeing a flight to quality and Treasuries are following. Asia traded lower after Hong Kong’s central bank said as fast as the easy money has flowed into their markets is as fast as it can flow out. While the US$ has caught a bid after Bernanke talked about it 3 weeks ago and will continue to rally ST, the PBOC deputy Gov summed its secular fate the best today, “When the US has to fund its deficit thru the combination of issuing more Treasuries and printing more $’s, it is inevitable that the $ will continue to weaken.”

Morning Bank Reads

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 17th, 2009, 6:29AM

Here is what I am looking at today this morn:

No News Is Good News From the FOMC (Barron’s)

How America let banks off the leash (FT)

4 Big Mortgage Backers Swim in Ocean of Debt (NYT)

Out from under TARP, banks are now free to fail again (Washington Post)

WaMu filing: JPMorgan had inside info (Portland Business Journal)

Credit Suisse’s Secret Deals (WSJ)

Gold Buying by Central Banks May Send Signal to Sell (Bloomberg)

What are you reading?

Merry Christmas from Goldman Sachs

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 16th, 2009, 10:18PM

Amusing stuff from Richard Ambrose:

xmasinside

And thne there is this:

Time POTY

Whalen: Person of the Year? Bernanke “Failed Miserably”

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 16th, 2009, 10:16PM

~~~

Source:
Person of the Year, My Foot! Bernanke “Failed Miserably,” Chris Whalen Says
Aaron Task
Yahoo Tech Ticker, Dec 16, 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/person-of-the-year-my-foot!-bernanke-”failed-miserably”-chris-whalen-says-391846.html

Person of the Year, My Foot! Bernanke “Failed Miserably”

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By Chris Whalen - December 16th, 2009, 9:31PM

Below is my video on TechTicker today. Get on the phone and call your Senator.

VIDEO

Vampire Squid Up For Auction

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 16th, 2009, 5:30PM

via FT Alphaville we see this item up for auction.

I suspect Matt Taibbi would be pleased:

>

squidwork22

>

Hat tip: Scott F

Well, if the FOMC won’t budge, maybe the market will for them

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By Peter Boockvar - December 16th, 2009, 4:07PM

Well, if the FOMC won’t change their view on inflation and interest rates,=
maybe the market will do it for them, albeit in fits and starts. Post FOM=
C statement, treasuries have sold off their highs sending the 10 yr note=
yield back to 3.6% (a close here would be the highest since August ’09)=
and the implied inflation rate in the 5 yr TIPS is jumping 7 bps to 2.05%=
, the highest since August 2008. Looking 10 yrs out, the implied rate is=
2.30%, up 2 bps on the day and also at the highest level since August 200=
8.

No change at the Fed, or is there?

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By Tim Iacono - December 16th, 2009, 3:04PM

This has got to be one of those “Bizarro World” days for Fed chief Ben Bernanke, what with the Time Magazine “Person of the Year” award, word of growing distrust among the general population, and, just in the last hour or so, a major twist in his Senate confirmation process where Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) said he will vote against Bernanke when the Senate Banking Committee meets tomorrow.

09-12-16_merkelyThis latest news is significant because Merkley is the first Democrat on the committee to announce his opposition to Bernanke and, while it is all but certain that the group will forward his nomination to the full Senate for a vote in January, a lot can happen over the next month.

In a statement, Merkley’s objections were squarely based on Bernanke’s failure as a regulator, noting, “For too many years, federal regulators turned a blind eye to signs of an impending financial crisis. Dr. Bernanke supported each of these decisions, failing to take the necessary precautionary steps that could have averted or mitigated financial collapse.”

As for monetary policy, what seems to be low on the list of Bernanke news today, the statement that was released following the FOMC meeting a short while ago had a good deal for people to talk about, even though the key phrases of “exceptionally low” short-term rates for an “extended period” were unchanged.

Below are the last two policy statements, side-by-side:

Read the rest of this entry »

The FOMC remains very dovish and the free money will continue to

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By Peter Boockvar - December 16th, 2009, 2:39PM

The two key things I was looking at for possible change was left alone. Th=
e FOMC will leave rates “exceptionally low…for an extended period” and=
their one sentence reference to inflation was exactly the same as the ver=
y dovish comment in Nov that said the “substantial” output gap and “stable=
inflation expectations” will lead to inflation remaining subdued for some=
time.” The FOMC acknowledged the slow down in the pace of job losses by=
saying “the deterioration in the labor market is abating.” They referred=
to consumer spending as “expanding at a moderate rate” whereas they said=
it was “expanding” only in Nov. Bottom line, the Fed remains insistent on=
staying very easy for much longer irrespective of the modest economic bou=
nce, rising commodity prices and inflation expectations, falling US$ and=
lack of emergency conditions that got us zero rates in the 1st place one=
year ago.

FOMC Statement

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 16th, 2009, 2:20PM
Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: December 16, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.

In light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of financial markets, the Committee and the Board of Governors anticipate that most of the Federal Reserve’s special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s announcement of June 25, 2009. These facilities include the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility. The Federal Reserve will also be working with its central bank counterparties to close its temporary liquidity swap arrangements by February 1. The Federal Reserve expects that amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back in early 2010. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30, 2010, for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31, 2010, for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Last update: December 16, 2009

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