Rate Hike Odds

By Peter Boockvar - December 4th, 2009, 9:19AM

The fed funds futures has somewhat shifted its rate hike odds in response to the big upside surprise to Nov payrolls. By the June meeting there is now a 66% chance of a 25 bps rate hike up from 34% yesterday. There is now a 100% chance of a 25 bps hike by the Aug meeting priced in up from 86% yesterday and there is also a 20% chance the Fed raises by 50 bps by Aug. Looking at the Sept contract, there is a 72% chance of a total of 50 bps in hikes up from 34% yesterday.

PERMALINK
Category: MacroNotes.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

One Response to “Rate Hike Odds”

Pat G. Says:
December 4th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I wouldn’t hold my breath re; rate hikes. They should be at 50 bps now so if they get there in September they are actually nine months too late (behind the curve)…