Comments on: S&P Retraces Half of its Losses http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 22:17:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: frankinomaha http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-245783 frankinomaha Mon, 04 Jan 2010 21:58:10 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-245783 Where might wave 2 end? Here are my thoughts: --The 200 day moving average is around 1225. Markets seem to return a moving average and then resume the trend; thus the market may return to near the 200 moving average then resume the move down. (Maybe) --Also, 1220-1225 is the .618 retracement of the move down from 1565 to 676. As most of you already know, .618 is a Fibonacci number. I think Elliot tended to use .618 more than 50%. --It took 17 months to go from the high of 1565 to low of 676. If the retracement takes .618 of 17 months that is 10.5 months--mid January. Often there is a move up in stocks during the first 5-10 trading days of January. S&P could go up to about 1220-1225, that's 8% higher from here. Sometimes it takes only a few days or a couple weeks to move 8%. Where might wave 2 end? Here are my thoughts:

–The 200 day moving average is around 1225. Markets seem to return a moving average and then resume the trend; thus the market may return to near the 200 moving average then resume the move down. (Maybe)

–Also, 1220-1225 is the .618 retracement of the move down from 1565 to 676. As most of you already know, .618 is a Fibonacci number. I think Elliot tended to use .618 more than 50%.

–It took 17 months to go from the high of 1565 to low of 676. If the retracement takes .618 of 17 months that is 10.5 months–mid January.

Often there is a move up in stocks during the first 5-10 trading days of January. S&P could go up to about 1220-1225, that’s 8% higher from here. Sometimes it takes only a few days or a couple weeks to move 8%.

]]> By: bruerr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-245361 bruerr Fri, 01 Jan 2010 20:25:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-245361 Study of the S&P500 chart comparisons, with private notes often omitted by market pundits: http://tinyurl.com/yeyoxld This second report was pulled down from one of Morgan's private servers: spx comparison_retrace Deluxe Edition price 1200US, for high net worth clients only.pdf http://sekrit.info/ynxnw Study of the S&P500 chart comparisons, with private notes often omitted by market pundits:
http://tinyurl.com/yeyoxld

This second report was pulled down from one of Morgan’s private servers:
spx comparison_retrace Deluxe Edition price 1200US, for high net worth clients only.pdf
http://sekrit.info/ynxnw

]]> By: Pocket QQ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244616 Pocket QQ Mon, 28 Dec 2009 21:01:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244616 If Goldman Sachs is doing God's work. Let's all pray they give some volatility back to the markets in 2010. Too much price stability is getting boring. Futures pricing seems way out of touch with the volatility. Seems like we are range bound until premium levels match volatility. What is the VIX trend telling everybody? 10 in 10 Is this the calm before the storm, or the new norm? If Goldman Sachs is doing God’s work. Let’s all pray they give some volatility back to the markets in 2010. Too much price stability is getting boring. Futures pricing seems way out of touch with the volatility. Seems like we are range bound until premium levels match volatility. What is the VIX trend telling everybody? 10 in 10

Is this the calm before the storm, or the new norm?

]]> By: MayorQuimby http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244584 MayorQuimby Mon, 28 Dec 2009 17:36:11 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244584 Oh yeah - and as KD mentioned on Tickerforum today and as I've long said to non-believing friends - the ONLY reason to buy a stock that pays no dividend is in the hopes that more $$$$ chases that very stock in the future. IOW - it's a pyramid scheme. You need real economic growth in order to create money or you're just pushing the price of everything away from the underlying purchasing power of the 'real' economy. Oh yeah – and as KD mentioned on Tickerforum today and as I’ve long said to non-believing friends – the ONLY reason to buy a stock that pays no dividend is in the hopes that more $$$$ chases that very stock in the future. IOW – it’s a pyramid scheme. You need real economic growth in order to create money or you’re just pushing the price of everything away from the underlying purchasing power of the ‘real’ economy.

]]> By: MayorQuimby http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244579 MayorQuimby Mon, 28 Dec 2009 17:12:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244579 1. People get taxed if they cash out at a profit but cannot declare most of their losses on the downside. 2. Leverage eats away a big chunk of profits. 3. Including losses, stocks are at record valuations. Without losses, they are in clear 'don't buy' territory. 4. One major reason for strong stocks was record low interest rates. With record bond issuance, TPTB will be hard pressed to keep that going. 5+% 30 yr bonds will look increasingly attractive this year. 5. Gvmt stimulus spending is still fighting deflation so that could delay any equity weakness for 6 - 18 months. Buy value and be a stingy sob. Don't pay $183 for a $25 pair of jeans and don't buy equities that pay no dividend but are trading at 75+ times earnings. And DON'T BUY into a market controlled by a handful of self-interested corrupted oligarchs for the betterment of thousands of gambling addicts (traders/hedge funds). No way for everyone to accrue wealth by clicking keys on a keyboard. 1. People get taxed if they cash out at a profit but cannot declare most of their losses on the downside.
2. Leverage eats away a big chunk of profits.
3. Including losses, stocks are at record valuations. Without losses, they are in clear ‘don’t buy’ territory.
4. One major reason for strong stocks was record low interest rates. With record bond issuance, TPTB will be hard pressed to keep that going. 5+% 30 yr bonds will look increasingly attractive this year.
5. Gvmt stimulus spending is still fighting deflation so that could delay any equity weakness for 6 – 18 months.

Buy value and be a stingy sob. Don’t pay $183 for a $25 pair of jeans and don’t buy equities that pay no dividend but are trading at 75+ times earnings. And DON’T BUY into a market controlled by a handful of self-interested corrupted oligarchs for the betterment of thousands of gambling addicts (traders/hedge funds). No way for everyone to accrue wealth by clicking keys on a keyboard.

]]> By: trendroom http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244532 trendroom Mon, 28 Dec 2009 12:16:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244532 MACRO TECH THEMES Q1 2010 http://trendroom.wordpress.com/2009/12/27/macro-tech-themes-q1-2010/ MACRO TECH THEMES Q1 2010
http://trendroom.wordpress.com/2009/12/27/macro-tech-themes-q1-2010/

]]> By: Set Your Stop Losses Early | TheTradingReport http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244481 Set Your Stop Losses Early | TheTradingReport Mon, 28 Dec 2009 00:48:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244481 [...] Although we’ve seen some push and shove during the last several weeks in stocks, looking at this market over 12 months really tells the story of a bull on the loose since early March. Since then, the S&P has retraced half of its losses. [...] [...] Although we’ve seen some push and shove during the last several weeks in stocks, looking at this market over 12 months really tells the story of a bull on the loose since early March. Since then, the S&P has retraced half of its losses. [...]

]]> By: privatebanker http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244426 privatebanker Sun, 27 Dec 2009 15:56:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244426 As long as the S&P doesn't violate the 61.8% fib level which is around the 1,228.75 +/-, we are in a significant retracement. From a chart reading perspective, we've barely gone past the 50% level which is a common occurrence. I look to remain unbiased and just react to what the market provides but this run up seems very suspicious... As long as the S&P doesn’t violate the 61.8% fib level which is around the 1,228.75 +/-, we are in a significant retracement. From a chart reading perspective, we’ve barely gone past the 50% level which is a common occurrence. I look to remain unbiased and just react to what the market provides but this run up seems very suspicious…

]]> By: LLouis http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244423 LLouis Sun, 27 Dec 2009 14:56:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244423 The guy with the brass balls, David Tepper, maybe started this rally all by himself, so to speak. In America, there's always a gambler that wins big, Tepper made 7 billion when he decided that BoA and CitiG had reached their bottom, with the action of U.S. government. He was one of the few buying then: "I felt like I was alone," Mr. Tepper recalls. On some days, he says, "no one was even bidding." Funny ending of the article I read: *The author does not own shares in these companies, for she is a moron. By: Jessica Pressler Filed Under: white men with giant brass balls, Read more: Hedge-Fund Manager David Tepper Has a Pair of Brass Balls -- Daily Intel http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/12/david_tepper_made_7_billion_do.html#ixzz0atvlcQLi The guy with the brass balls, David Tepper, maybe started this rally all by himself, so to speak.
In America, there’s always a gambler that wins big, Tepper made 7 billion when he decided that BoA and CitiG had reached their bottom, with the action of U.S. government. He was one of the few buying then:

“I felt like I was alone,” Mr. Tepper recalls. On some days, he says, “no one was even bidding.”

Funny ending of the article I read:

*The author does not own shares in these companies, for she is a moron.
By: Jessica Pressler Filed Under: white men with giant brass balls,

Read more: Hedge-Fund Manager David Tepper Has a Pair of Brass Balls — Daily Intel http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/12/david_tepper_made_7_billion_do.html#ixzz0atvlcQLi

]]> By: Sunday links: forecast frenzy Abnormal Returns http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp-retraces-half-of-its-losses/comment-page-1/#comment-244415 Sunday links: forecast frenzy Abnormal Returns Sun, 27 Dec 2009 13:07:43 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47368#comment-244415 [...] what it is worth the S&P 500 has retraced 50% of its losses.  (Big Picture, [...] [...] what it is worth the S&P 500 has retraced 50% of its losses.  (Big Picture, [...]

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