This is a fascinating look at the trailing one year rate of return on the SPX, via The Chart Store.
Note that it bottoms below zero during recession, and with just one exception (2001), its at 10% as recessions end.
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click for bigger chart
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Putting aside its incredible product line and pipeline of more, its still attractive valuation relative to earnings, and its $100 per share of cash that may be used for a dividend soon, Apple's stock has gone parabolic. And, parabolic moves always end one way, back to the place where the parabolic move began. Now, AAPL can of course power higher to who knows where in this move but the largest market cap stock in the world has now entered a tenuous phase, strictly technically speaking. But I digress. German investor confidence, the ZEW, in the next 6 months rose back...
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December 10th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Juxtaposition: the act of positioning close together (or side by side); “it is the result of the juxtaposition of contrasting colors”
The sequence ‘forecasting problematic’ to ‘here’s a chart suggesting a possible future outcome’ is revelatory.
As for forecasts- check out the revisions in GDP data ‘na economia brasileira’:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6rgsAJRlr3Y&pos=5
Also of note:
““Today’s figure explains why the government continued to grant tax breaks to spur investment and consumption,” said Diego Donadio, senior analyst at BNP Paribas in Sao Paulo. Donadio said he expects the central bank will begin tightening only in the first quarter of 2011. “
December 10th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
So Barry looks like your comparison to ’73-’74 is still a good one.
December 10th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Equally and without exception it tells you to sell, sell, sell when the recession eventually is declared over.
December 10th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
Interesting… but would you say this recession is more of the exception or the rule?
December 11th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
…i think he just decoded NBER’s magic formula