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	<title>Comments on: S&amp;P500 Bottoms vs Recessions</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/</link>
	<description>Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2012 19:33:40 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Sunday links: forecast frenzy Abnormal Returns</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244430</link>
		<dc:creator>Sunday links: forecast frenzy Abnormal Returns</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Dec 2009 16:17:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244430</guid>
		<description>[...] For what it is worth the S&amp;P 500 has retraced 50% of its losses.  (Big Picture, ibid) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] For what it is worth the S&amp;P 500 has retraced 50% of its losses.  (Big Picture, ibid) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: dsawy</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244311</link>
		<dc:creator>dsawy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Dec 2009 04:56:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244311</guid>
		<description>As a chart-reader, I find it curious to see that there is no other instance of a double-top in the SP500 since WWII.

Because there is no other instance of a debt deflation post-WWII, I find that chart-reading of patterns in these last three years of markets are not as useful as other markets. Increasingly, the equities markets are driven by debt market events.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a chart-reader, I find it curious to see that there is no other instance of a double-top in the SP500 since WWII.</p>
<p>Because there is no other instance of a debt deflation post-WWII, I find that chart-reading of patterns in these last three years of markets are not as useful as other markets. Increasingly, the equities markets are driven by debt market events.</p>
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		<title>By: privatebanker</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244256</link>
		<dc:creator>privatebanker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Dec 2009 17:10:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244256</guid>
		<description>What if the S&amp;P hasn&#039;t bottomed yet? It is debatable that we are still in the midst of a retracement before our continual move down.  A great example is the Nikkei after Japan&#039;s boom and bust.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What if the S&amp;P hasn&#8217;t bottomed yet? It is debatable that we are still in the midst of a retracement before our continual move down.  A great example is the Nikkei after Japan&#8217;s boom and bust.</p>
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		<title>By: david449420</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244202</link>
		<dc:creator>david449420</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 23:52:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244202</guid>
		<description>Predicating anything based on the relative values of your US based stock markets, whatever their name or flavor, is pointless.  They are ALL gamed.  The ONLY useful piece of information that can be extrapolated from them is just that.  That they have absolutely no relation to reality.  

Looking at what is transpiring around the world, not just in  America, suggests the high probability that ALL paper currencies will SOON FAIL.  

How are we (globally) going to recover and move forward from that catastrophic global event?   

I don&#039;t know, and any one else who tells you today that they know, are guessing, or hoping.

We CAN work to make changes for the better.  (And I think that is going to be very HARD work)

I will volunteer this.  Although certainly not the only country with this problem, the problem in your country has become acute. Your government has clearly become corrupted and subverted. Your financial  organizations openly and apparently without fear of reprisal, commit fraud and theft. Your judiciary no longer inspires belief that the rule of law is being enforced.    

There are bright lights in the darkness. I have over the last few years seen a number of social, academic,even political people (admittedly not many)  in your country who clearly do see the problems.  From some of them (and a whole lot more who are going to be needed) will come the possible solutions. 

If they succeed. They are faced with a resourceful enemy, cunning and essentially criminal in nature.  Who at the moment are in the dominant position.  

But,  they have miscalculated.  I do not think they intended for the structures that they helped create to come tumbling down the way I think they are going to. 

Good Luck people.  In the coming struggles, lift up your perception to the larger world, not just your little part of it.   What you are enduring, what you are fighting for, is the same thing that people All OVER the world are going to be doing.

Have a good Christmas holiday with family and friends and look to find the positives for the future.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Predicating anything based on the relative values of your US based stock markets, whatever their name or flavor, is pointless.  They are ALL gamed.  The ONLY useful piece of information that can be extrapolated from them is just that.  That they have absolutely no relation to reality.  </p>
<p>Looking at what is transpiring around the world, not just in  America, suggests the high probability that ALL paper currencies will SOON FAIL.  </p>
<p>How are we (globally) going to recover and move forward from that catastrophic global event?   </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know, and any one else who tells you today that they know, are guessing, or hoping.</p>
<p>We CAN work to make changes for the better.  (And I think that is going to be very HARD work)</p>
<p>I will volunteer this.  Although certainly not the only country with this problem, the problem in your country has become acute. Your government has clearly become corrupted and subverted. Your financial  organizations openly and apparently without fear of reprisal, commit fraud and theft. Your judiciary no longer inspires belief that the rule of law is being enforced.    </p>
<p>There are bright lights in the darkness. I have over the last few years seen a number of social, academic,even political people (admittedly not many)  in your country who clearly do see the problems.  From some of them (and a whole lot more who are going to be needed) will come the possible solutions. </p>
<p>If they succeed. They are faced with a resourceful enemy, cunning and essentially criminal in nature.  Who at the moment are in the dominant position.  </p>
<p>But,  they have miscalculated.  I do not think they intended for the structures that they helped create to come tumbling down the way I think they are going to. </p>
<p>Good Luck people.  In the coming struggles, lift up your perception to the larger world, not just your little part of it.   What you are enduring, what you are fighting for, is the same thing that people All OVER the world are going to be doing.</p>
<p>Have a good Christmas holiday with family and friends and look to find the positives for the future.</p>
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		<title>By: call me ahab</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244197</link>
		<dc:creator>call me ahab</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 22:01:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244197</guid>
		<description>Ned Bushong nails it!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ned Bushong nails it!</p>
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		<title>By: jc</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244195</link>
		<dc:creator>jc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 21:40:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244195</guid>
		<description>OT Xmas shopping wrap up. I hit an outlet mall in Tinton Falls NJ and was surprised how sparse the crowd was. A saleswoman at a jewelry place asked me if the other stores were busy and I said &quot;not really&quot;, she said the store was closing in Feb, she said&quot; it&#039;s the rent, $14K/mo&quot;. The outlet center has been open a couple years, the neighbors Walmart was slow too. 10% unemployment (heading to 11% per Biderman of Trimtabs) will do that.

Merry Christmas everyone!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OT Xmas shopping wrap up. I hit an outlet mall in Tinton Falls NJ and was surprised how sparse the crowd was. A saleswoman at a jewelry place asked me if the other stores were busy and I said &#8220;not really&#8221;, she said the store was closing in Feb, she said&#8221; it&#8217;s the rent, $14K/mo&#8221;. The outlet center has been open a couple years, the neighbors Walmart was slow too. 10% unemployment (heading to 11% per Biderman of Trimtabs) will do that.</p>
<p>Merry Christmas everyone!</p>
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		<title>By: GB</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244185</link>
		<dc:creator>GB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 20:17:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244185</guid>
		<description>They can&#039;t crank rates to0 soon right because that would hurt housing to much IMO.   Wage inflation won&#039;t start until there is enough work to raise them.  What will the new populace supported bubble be?  Green Tech? Health care and bio engineering?  Good Questions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They can&#8217;t crank rates to0 soon right because that would hurt housing to much IMO.   Wage inflation won&#8217;t start until there is enough work to raise them.  What will the new populace supported bubble be?  Green Tech? Health care and bio engineering?  Good Questions.</p>
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		<title>By: torrie-amos</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244183</link>
		<dc:creator>torrie-amos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 19:55:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244183</guid>
		<description>fwiw, here&#039;s my summary

We were in a bear market in 2001, with the street short, 9-11 hit, one could say similar too oct 87 market crash...............once markets re-opened massive 35% short covering rally..........than another prime shorting opportunity, down we go 40%

Bottom is oct-march of 2002-2003, fed gins it up again, worldwide capitalism is working out well in china, rusky, and other places, at the lows with fed backing you buy commodities, and so you had lot&#039;s of money from two good bear times if you were deft

Fed keeps rates low, the world is rocking, george loads up strategic petro reserves, dollar slowly fades on the sell the currency buy commodity rothchild famed war trade that always works.

Now all the smart money has so much money it needs a home and with rates low, they loan it out for real estate, and the beat goes on.

Now, the big boys see green shoots everywhere, let&#039;s get us some 40-1 leverage.

Than a rolling stone encore of tumbling dice............................

World Peace is better than social unrest, all countries stimulate at once and start talking to each other, hmmmmmm, we screwed this one up good, we better be better.

7 Billion Souls in the naked city now

demograhically emerging markets want a higher standard of living, they will not be denied, cause merica and europe and a few others are pretty much on a per capita basis as good as it gets

mercia-20 barrells a year per person
europe-14 barrells per
emergin-4 barrells

younger population, willing to work hard, schools, hospitals roads and bridges, etc. etc.

okay, so where does the future lie, who knows, i&#039;m on jim rodgers side, fiat money is not all that bright, where business is blowing and growing profits will be higher and better and where the money will be made, adjust accordingly

my one negative will not change, higher oil hurts us and hurts us bad, last time we cracked at 140 a barrell, imho, this time we got problems at 100 based on our present environment, if history rhymes, we get too 100 wiggle and walk for a few months and then revisit the downside</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>fwiw, here&#8217;s my summary</p>
<p>We were in a bear market in 2001, with the street short, 9-11 hit, one could say similar too oct 87 market crash&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;once markets re-opened massive 35% short covering rally&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.than another prime shorting opportunity, down we go 40%</p>
<p>Bottom is oct-march of 2002-2003, fed gins it up again, worldwide capitalism is working out well in china, rusky, and other places, at the lows with fed backing you buy commodities, and so you had lot&#8217;s of money from two good bear times if you were deft</p>
<p>Fed keeps rates low, the world is rocking, george loads up strategic petro reserves, dollar slowly fades on the sell the currency buy commodity rothchild famed war trade that always works.</p>
<p>Now all the smart money has so much money it needs a home and with rates low, they loan it out for real estate, and the beat goes on.</p>
<p>Now, the big boys see green shoots everywhere, let&#8217;s get us some 40-1 leverage.</p>
<p>Than a rolling stone encore of tumbling dice&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.</p>
<p>World Peace is better than social unrest, all countries stimulate at once and start talking to each other, hmmmmmm, we screwed this one up good, we better be better.</p>
<p>7 Billion Souls in the naked city now</p>
<p>demograhically emerging markets want a higher standard of living, they will not be denied, cause merica and europe and a few others are pretty much on a per capita basis as good as it gets</p>
<p>mercia-20 barrells a year per person<br />
europe-14 barrells per<br />
emergin-4 barrells</p>
<p>younger population, willing to work hard, schools, hospitals roads and bridges, etc. etc.</p>
<p>okay, so where does the future lie, who knows, i&#8217;m on jim rodgers side, fiat money is not all that bright, where business is blowing and growing profits will be higher and better and where the money will be made, adjust accordingly</p>
<p>my one negative will not change, higher oil hurts us and hurts us bad, last time we cracked at 140 a barrell, imho, this time we got problems at 100 based on our present environment, if history rhymes, we get too 100 wiggle and walk for a few months and then revisit the downside</p>
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		<title>By: Ned Bushong</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244172</link>
		<dc:creator>Ned Bushong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 18:20:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244172</guid>
		<description>There are only recessions on your graph, no depressions. That&#039;s the difference.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are only recessions on your graph, no depressions. That&#8217;s the difference.</p>
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		<title>By: constantnormal</title>
		<link>http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/sp500-bottoms-vs-recessions/comment-page-1/#comment-244171</link>
		<dc:creator>constantnormal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Dec 2009 18:19:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=47255#comment-244171</guid>
		<description>Isn&#039;t it painting with too broad a brush to treat all recessions as interchangeable?  I would suspect that the behavior of inventory adjustment recessions vs credit contraction recessions to be quite different.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t it painting with too broad a brush to treat all recessions as interchangeable?  I would suspect that the behavior of inventory adjustment recessions vs credit contraction recessions to be quite different.</p>
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