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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “The Folly Of Economic Forecasts”

1. Charles Maley Says:
   December 10th, 2009 at 11:27 am

   It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. – YOGI BERRA

   I think we love predictions because if we make predictions, and/or concoct explanations for those events we predicted wrong, then we won’t feel like victims of randomness. We feel more in control. But are we more in control or just intoxicated by some illusion of control?

   Why are we such suckers for prediction?

   http://viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com/419/suckers-for-prediction/

2. Machiavelli999 Says:
   December 10th, 2009 at 11:40 am

   Here is a thought for Mr. Austrian economist. If he is like most Austrian economists, he is a free market absolutist and the market can do no wrong. Well, if by his own opinion, economic forecasting is pointless AND the market can do no wrong, why does there exist an entire industry around economic forecasting???

   He must either admit that he is wrong that the free market can do no wrong or he must admit that economic forecasting has a purpose.

3. Climategate Says:
   December 10th, 2009 at 12:03 pm

   Here’s the must watch clip from Daily Show
   http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-december-7-2009/american-idle

4. Graphite Says:
   December 11th, 2009 at 5:24 am

   He must either admit that he is wrong that the free market can do no wrong or he must admit that economic forecasting has a purpose.

   This is exceedingly easy to answer if you’ve ever actually read any Austrian economics. The free market is simply best at delivering consumers what they want, in a subjective value sense. It can provide no guarantees that what they desire is actually in their self-interest, or morally salutary, or what-have-you. (Neither can politicians, but that’s a whole separate debate.) For example, astrology may be absolute bunk, but it appears to be the case that many consumers desire to have their fortunes read from the stars.

   With regard to economic forecasting, many members of the thundering herd known as “investors” desire some kind of logical justification or rationalization for their investing decisions. The state of the economy is one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in modern life. Forecasters provide some measure of relief (justified or not) from that uncertainty.

   It’s a straw man to say that Austrian economics believes that “the market can do no wrong.” This is a school of thought which describes depressions as caused by a “cluster of errors” after all, and not all of them attributable to public policy. However, it is certainly the case that, if left truly unfettered (free to visit rewards upon the prudent and foresighted and disasters upon the reckless) the market will, in very near 100% of cases, do less wrong than government intervention.

5. tradeking13 Says:
   December 14th, 2009 at 9:58 am

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