The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

18 Responses to “Time Capsule Post (2010 Forecasts) — Open One Year Hence”

1. super_trooper Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 8:36 am

   Dude! what am I looking at??
   Are there units to the numbers? What’s EPS?
   And who is Bob?

   Is this turning into a geek blog?

2. Barry Ritholtz Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 8:51 am

   I’ll update above . . .

   (You mean this hasn’t been a geek blog? WTF was I thinking!?!)

3. Mark E Hoffer Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 8:56 am

   what happened to last year’s “Forecasts”?

   always nice to ‘compare and contrast’..

   also, are any of these geniuses forecasting Interest Rates? ForEx valuations? Commodity Prices?

4. BThomas Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 9:05 am

   You left our Rosie! He would pull the who average down by at least 50 points.

   Moreover, what do you think Barry? What’s your target?

5. constantnormal Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 9:08 am

   soooooo … I guess this means we can expect the S&P to close out 2010 at 1500?

6. constantnormal Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 9:14 am

   I love the fact that there is only a slim difference — about 14%-15% between the anticipated high and low, or about 7% above and below the mean — have these folks no imagination?

   Why not just put the same numbers for the high and low?

   That’s an awful lot of reliance on “managed” markets.

7. constantnormal Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 9:14 am

   And how much do these guys get paid to do this?

8. Thatguy Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 9:25 am

   The high, low, median, and mean forecasts all turn out with a PE somewhere between 16 and 17. How is that multiple justified in an economy with anemic employment, massive government supports that will end and only one direction left for interest rates to go? I realize that these are “only” fundamental questions, but it really gives me pause. I guess it goes back to constantnormal’s reference to “managed markets”.

9. ToNYC Says:
   December 17th, 2009 at 9:29 am

   Are these Es in the EPS based on their paying back the TARP with mark-to-model toxic waste so blessed so they can save the real cash to pay cowboys and continue the Thelma and Louise playbook?

10. catman Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 9:43 am

    This is the talent we are always hearing about that must be paid boatloads of money or they will debark leaving our nation and the world adrift?

11. Mannwich Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 9:52 am

    All together now! EPS estimates seem a bit high, no?

12. Andy T Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 10:00 am

    I like how all the forecasts are higher…talk about herding.

13. d4winds Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 10:08 am

    re “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”

    So funny–and so true!

14. phb Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 10:32 am

    maybe its the point, but those are all Sell-side guys, what’s the Buy-side fraternity say?

15. tagyoureit Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 10:50 am

    I don’t see what the big deal is, I get the same result simply by recycling 2005 Operating Earnings (bottom up).

    12/31/2005 1248.29 $20.19
    09/30/2005 1228.81 $18.84
    06/30/2005 1191.33 $19.42
    03/31/2005 1180.59 $18.00

    Things are just as they were five years ago. ;)
    Don’t sweat the bailouts, unemployment or the value of the dollar.

    www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

16. some_guy_in_a_cube Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    Predictions are fun, but useless.

17. leftback Says:
    December 17th, 2009 at 7:38 pm

    Multiple Contraction is notably absent from these predictions… all these guys have P/E values between 15-20.
    As BR has pointed out, most bear markets end with single digit P/E ratios, and we haven’t been there yet.

    Another ratio LB likes to monitor is the following ratio. SPX dividend yield (2.1) v. the 10y yield (3.47). So that’s about 0.60. Last February this was 6.0/2.50 or so, or in excess of 2. Keep your eye on this measure.

    High end housing is going to crumble in 2010, negative equity is going to be extreme for the homeowners, the remaining builders and the bag-holders for these instruments (regional banks and insurance companies who hold mortgages or prime MBS) are holders of US high yield debt and equities. Can you say liquidation?

    Anyone want to bet that 2010 EPS will be higher than 2010 peak VIX?

18. The Enterprising Investor’s Guide 12-21-2009 | The Razor's Edge Says:
    December 21st, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    [...] interesting note was published on Barry Ritholtz’s blog last week that compares some top Wall Street strategists predictions for earnings in 2010.  [...]