Comments on: Too Few Bears Spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Tue, 14 Feb 2012 21:38:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5 By: heyco63 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240785 heyco63 Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:22:12 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240785 To Barry Ritholtz, I know Albert Edwards, he has looked out for me for a long time now. It is obvious you get his reports, I think. I sent him a link from your blog. No harm intended. To let him know he is being read about in the USA. Also asked Mr. Eric King of King World News to do an interview with him. Probably will not happen since he is not independent and works for Soc. Gen. Kind regards, David ~~~ <strong>BR</strong>: when it comes to Wall Street/Big Firm resesarch, I am aware of the copyright rules -- I only reproduce an excerpt, not the entire thing. I know Albert, as well as his former partner James Montier (now at GMO) and have a lot of respect for their work . . . To Barry Ritholtz,

I know Albert Edwards, he has looked out for me for a long time now. It is obvious you get his reports, I think. I sent him a link from your blog. No harm intended. To let him know he is being read about in the USA. Also asked Mr. Eric King of King World News to do an interview with him. Probably will not happen since he is not independent and works for Soc. Gen.

Kind regards,
David

~~~

BR: when it comes to Wall Street/Big Firm resesarch, I am aware of the copyright rules — I only reproduce an excerpt, not the entire thing.

I know Albert, as well as his former partner James Montier (now at GMO) and have a lot of respect for their work . . .

]]> By: whodunit http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240734 whodunit Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:54:05 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240734 Porsche87, The shift out of equities was into Gov paper at low yields, not corporates. I do not think the average person fleeing equities knows what a bond is, never mind the different types. It's just that someone told them they were "SAFE" But thank you for the response. I watch JNK everyday, and agree with your strategy all the way. The point was to show what people say and do are two different things. Even though II is advisors. Not every advisor knows what's what. The 2008-2009 meltdown showed that in spades. In this yield starved environment, with rates low for quite a while it looks like, risk assets are probably where to be for the time being. I think the bears are making a mistake, underestimating the continuing low rates, and what massive government stimulus and money supply, with backstops for everyone, can do. And the fact that it is so hard to turn the deflationary pressures, that these guys are not letting up until they are darn sure inflation takes hold, and that is going to be a while IMO. Cheers Porsche87, The shift out of equities was into Gov paper at low yields, not corporates. I do not think the average person fleeing equities knows what a bond is, never mind the different types. It’s just that someone told them they were “SAFE” But thank you for the response. I watch JNK everyday, and agree with your strategy all the way.

The point was to show what people say and do are two different things. Even though II is advisors. Not every advisor knows what’s what. The 2008-2009 meltdown showed that in spades.

In this yield starved environment, with rates low for quite a while it looks like, risk assets are probably where to be for the time being.

I think the bears are making a mistake, underestimating the continuing low rates, and what massive government stimulus and money supply, with backstops for everyone, can do. And the fact that it is so hard to turn the deflationary pressures, that these guys are not letting up until they are darn sure inflation takes hold, and that is going to be a while IMO.

Cheers

]]> By: Porsche87 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240724 Porsche87 Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:05:34 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240724 @whodunit: Take a gander at JNK (junk bond ETF) versus SPY (S&P 500 ETF) on a chart. They are tracking each other closely and have been for awhile. If the S&P gets a fresh push, JNK will go along with it. If it drops, you're no worse off. If, however, the market chops sideways for months on end, JNK is paying a 12.5% yield vs. SPY's 2.25%. Methinks that is why there is a shift into bonds. @whodunit: Take a gander at JNK (junk bond ETF) versus SPY (S&P 500 ETF) on a chart. They are tracking each other closely and have been for awhile. If the S&P gets a fresh push, JNK will go along with it. If it drops, you’re no worse off. If, however, the market chops sideways for months on end, JNK is paying a 12.5% yield vs. SPY’s 2.25%. Methinks that is why there is a shift into bonds.

]]> By: Darkness http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240721 Darkness Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:58:24 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240721 I'm with catman, looking at the chart. Or maybe my humpday brain is just tired. I see the red line (inversed as it is) as a leading indicator of the market falling. (we don't have many cycles to go on here, so whatever on reliability) So, on the right side we have what? Bears inverted as a leading indicator of more rise in the market, or what? I’m with catman, looking at the chart. Or maybe my humpday brain is just tired. I see the red line (inversed as it is) as a leading indicator of the market falling. (we don’t have many cycles to go on here, so whatever on reliability) So, on the right side we have what? Bears inverted as a leading indicator of more rise in the market, or what?

]]> By: catman http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240668 catman Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:19:18 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240668 Can it be? Heaven forfend! Skepticism toward a bearish post here on the BP. Sheesh, now I'm really worried. ~~~ <strong>BR</strong>: I too thought the skepticism has been more towards the bullish post ! Can it be? Heaven forfend! Skepticism toward a bearish post here on the BP. Sheesh, now I’m really worried.

~~~

BR: I too thought the skepticism has been more towards the bullish post !

]]> By: whodunit http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240667 whodunit Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:16:16 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240667 What people say and do may be 2 different things. Go to The Short View at FT and watch the video of what US retail investors are doing. Draining equity funds and adding to bond funds . It is pretty good with some nice charts. I also want to meet these bullish people. I get all kinds of emails warning about this and that, the next shoe to drop etc....I have yet to meet anyone who tells me to go all in equities. I hear there are 3% USD bulls for a long time too. How'd that work out? And with no yield in safe harbors like MM accts.....Where is the money going to go ? Maybe bonds at these low yields ....ya right. Maybe into redecorating the bomb shelter, ya that's it. It's been a whole 9 months since the last meltdown, of course, we are going to get another one next week right? What people say and do may be 2 different things. Go to The Short View at FT and watch the video of what US retail investors are doing. Draining equity funds and adding to bond funds . It is pretty good with some nice charts.
I also want to meet these bullish people. I get all kinds of emails warning about this and that, the next shoe to drop etc….I have yet to meet anyone who tells me to go all in equities. I hear there are 3% USD bulls for a long time too. How’d that work out? And with no yield in safe harbors like MM accts…..Where is the money going to go ? Maybe bonds at these low yields ….ya right. Maybe into redecorating the bomb shelter, ya that’s it. It’s been a whole 9 months since the last meltdown, of course, we are going to get another one next week right?

]]> By: ashpelham2 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240658 ashpelham2 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:46:58 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240658 What is going on with energy? Is this all dollar-driven? It's off 10-12% from it's recent highs. I thought we would inch toward $90 by now, but we are going the other way. Doesn't matter, I suppose, in the end. Oil can spike and drop like not even the S&P can. From 90 to 140 and back to 40 in about 12 months of 2008. What is going on with energy? Is this all dollar-driven? It’s off 10-12% from it’s recent highs. I thought we would inch toward $90 by now, but we are going the other way.

Doesn’t matter, I suppose, in the end. Oil can spike and drop like not even the S&P can. From 90 to 140 and back to 40 in about 12 months of 2008.

]]> By: CTX http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240655 CTX Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:42:53 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240655 if you miss the bull market its a bubble, if you got in early- its called a bull market.... right? if you miss the bull market its a bubble, if you got in early- its called a bull market…. right?

]]> By: Climategate http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240643 Climategate Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:51:40 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240643 @How the Common Man Sees It The environmentalists from Hollywood, trying to scare the public, dropped and killed too many polar bears from the sky while filming yet another global warming B.S. propaganda. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxis7Y1ikIQ @How the Common Man Sees It

The environmentalists from Hollywood, trying to scare the public, dropped and killed too many polar bears from the sky while filming yet another global warming B.S. propaganda.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxis7Y1ikIQ

]]> By: How the Common Man Sees It http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-bears-spells-t-r-o-u-b-l-e/comment-page-1/#comment-240642 How the Common Man Sees It Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:42:06 +0000 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?p=45691#comment-240642 And in other news it is reported that polar bears are resorting to cannibalism. We are even eating our own here! ;) And in other news it is reported that polar bears are resorting to cannibalism. We are even eating our own here! ;)

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