Time for a few charts looking at Sentiment.

Despite the huge run up in equity prices, sentiment, as measured by invested dollars and equity exposure, as well as surveys, is actually pretty middle of the road:

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AAII Asset Allocation Deviation from the Mean

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AAII Asset Allocation

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AAII Bullish Sentiment Survey

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AAII Bullish Sentiment Survey
All charts courtesy of Fusion Investments

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This suggests that a reversal is not imminent, at least due to sentiment. But it also implies that the negativity that drove the early phases of the rally are no longer present either.

The easy money has been made . . . the sledding now gets more challenging . . .

Category: Psychology, Technical Analysis

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10 Responses to “US Equity Market Sentiment Review”

  1. Wes Schott says:

    …that Asset Allocation time scale is, uhhh, “different”

  2. [...] Sentiment tells us the easy money has been made in this rally.  (Big Picture) [...]

  3. rustum says:

    Any comments on Empire sate manufacturing index. That one is racing to zero. That is what happened before the 2008 crash. is it prelude to similar crash.

  4. bsneath says:

    I wonder how investor decisions to pull out of the market completely affects the Asset Allocation Chart going forward. Believes the market is rigged, burned in the past collapse, etc.

  5. [...] exposure and sentiment surveys, seems to be pretty even-keeled, not necessarily bullish or bearish, Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture, citing charts courtesy of Fusion Investments. “This suggests that a reversal is not [...]

  6. [...] exposure and sentiment surveys, seems to be pretty even-keeled, not necessarily bullish or bearish, Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture, citing charts courtesy of Fusion Investments. “This suggests that a reversal is not [...]

  7. BigDaddy says:

    What is interesting w/ the AAII Bullish indicator – many more bulls in 2004 than in ’07/’08 peak. Many more instances below the 30% line than above the 50% line since 2005….a bearish bias?

  8. [...] surveys, seems to be pretty even-keeled, not necessarily bullish or bearish, Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture, citing charts courtesy of Fusion [...]

  9. VennData says:

    CNBC’s Wealth in America survey…

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/28193931

    … was decidedly negative.

  10. Steve Barry says:

    On the other hand, insider selling is massive…II Bulls are pretty high and bears are at record lows.

    http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/177952-sentiment-overview-bulls-gain-ground