US Equity Market Sentiment Review
By Barry Ritholtz - December 15th, 2009, 11:30AM
Time for a few charts looking at Sentiment.
Despite the huge run up in equity prices, sentiment, as measured by invested dollars and equity exposure, as well as surveys, is actually pretty middle of the road:
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AAII Asset Allocation Deviation from the Mean
click for ginormous charts
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AAII Bullish Sentiment Survey
click for ginormous charts
All charts courtesy of Fusion Investments
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This suggests that a reversal is not imminent, at least due to sentiment. But it also implies that the negativity that drove the early phases of the rally are no longer present either.
The easy money has been made . . . the sledding now gets more challenging . . .
De.li.cious
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December 15th, 2009 at 11:42 am
…that Asset Allocation time scale is, uhhh, “different”
December 15th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
[...] Sentiment tells us the easy money has been made in this rally. (Big Picture) [...]
December 15th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Any comments on Empire sate manufacturing index. That one is racing to zero. That is what happened before the 2008 crash. is it prelude to similar crash.
December 15th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I wonder how investor decisions to pull out of the market completely affects the Asset Allocation Chart going forward. Believes the market is rigged, burned in the past collapse, etc.
December 15th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
[...] exposure and sentiment surveys, seems to be pretty even-keeled, not necessarily bullish or bearish, Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture, citing charts courtesy of Fusion Investments. “This suggests that a reversal is not [...]
December 15th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
[...] exposure and sentiment surveys, seems to be pretty even-keeled, not necessarily bullish or bearish, Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture, citing charts courtesy of Fusion Investments. “This suggests that a reversal is not [...]
December 15th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
What is interesting w/ the AAII Bullish indicator – many more bulls in 2004 than in ’07/’08 peak. Many more instances below the 30% line than above the 50% line since 2005….a bearish bias?
December 15th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
[...] surveys, seems to be pretty even-keeled, not necessarily bullish or bearish, Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture, citing charts courtesy of Fusion [...]
December 15th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
CNBC’s Wealth in America survey…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28193931
… was decidedly negative.
December 15th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
On the other hand, insider selling is massive…II Bulls are pretty high and bears are at record lows.
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/177952-sentiment-overview-bulls-gain-ground