The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

The Nov Payrolls fell only 11k, much better than expectations of a fall of 125k and the prior two months were revised up by 159k. The household survey rose by 227k after a decline of 589k in Oct and combined with a drop in the labor force sent the unemployment rate down to 10% from 10.2%. The all in rate fell to 17.2% from 17.5%. Manufacturing jobs fell 4k less than expected. Temp jobs rose by 52k and are up for a 4th month and could be a good precursor to permanent hiring. Education/health and the federal government added jobs. Most other groups shed jobs. Average hourly earnings rose .1%, .1% less than estimated. The average work week rose to 33.2 hours from 33.0. The average duration of unemployment did rise to 28.5 weeks from 26.9, a fresh record high. The B/D model added 30k vs 19k last yr. Bottom line, the data is a clear positive but doesn’t square with other info but let’s enjoy it for today. The stock market reaction today will be interesting because the US$ is rallying and the 10 yr bond yield is nearing 3.5% again.