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Whoops! Japan Overstated GDP by 300%

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 9th, 2009, 6:21AM

Wow, quite the cock up: The initial estimate of Japanese economic growth of 4.8% original was revised to 1.3%.  That is a revision that would do the US statisticians and record-keepers proud!

Bloomberg

“Japan’s economy expanded less than a third of the pace initially reported in the three months to September as companies slashed spending.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 1.3 percent, slower than the 4.8 percent reported last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The revision, which was deeper than the predictions of all but one of the 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, also showed that price declines accelerated.”

Ahhh, Deflation, the gift that keeps on giving.

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Source:
Japan Economy Grows 1.3%, Less Than Initial Estimate of 4.8%
Keiko Ujikane and Tatsuo Ito
Bloomberg, Dec. 9 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYImYKEoksnA&pos=1

PERMALINK
Category: Data Analysis, Economy.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “Whoops! Japan Overstated GDP by 300%”

  1. johnhaskell Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 7:31 am

    ok, you made me look, ha ha.

    Correct headline, “Japan overstates GDP GROWTH by 300%”

    quite the cockup, I would say

  2. M.G. in Progress Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 7:50 am

    Greek government did a similar revision tripling deficit from 3.7% to 12.7% of GDP.
    Bond vigilantes are not happy.
    http://mgiannini.blogspot.com/2009/12/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics-or.html

  3. KidDynamite Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 8:16 am

    and yet, US markets don’t care… WHY?

  4. wally Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 9:32 am

    300% ?
    Could have happened to anybody. Take the US jobs report, for instance.

  5. tradeking13 Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 9:35 am

    @KidDynamite: The market doesn’t seem to care about revisions.

  6. call me ahab Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 9:58 am

    @ Kid-

    c’mon- you know it’s the initial # that drives the market-

    revisions- who cares about those-

    it’s the worldwide game of “instilling confidence”- while the wise folks know there should be none

  7. Mannwich Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 10:06 am

    @KD: The market only cares about revisions UP, not down. Get with the program.

  8. KidDynamite Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 10:24 am

    i find the non-reaction to revisions (in our own data too) to be tremendous. You get a spike on the initially overstated positive report, but you never get the return to reality or selloff when the data turns out to be phony.

    I think the BLS even said something last year about delaying revisions to the official jobs data until April 2010 or something,.,, at which point they’ll come out and say something like “Unemployment last October was revised upward from an initially reported 10% to 12.3%” – and no one will care!

  9. Mannwich Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 10:52 am

    @KD: It’s clearly not a real, functioning “market” anymore with all of the gov’t manipulations and bailouts.

  10. gps Says:
    December 9th, 2009 at 11:56 am

    That is a revision that would do the US statisticians and record-keepers proud!
    This is the highlight of this piece.

  11. WaltFrench Says:
    December 13th, 2009 at 9:47 pm

    “That is a revision that would do the US statisticians and record-keepers proud!”

    Cheap shot. Beneath what I thought BP aims for. Suitable for F** News, maybe.

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