5 Questions About the Apple iSlate
With everyone trying to guess what the new iSlate will look like, let’s take a step back. Expectations are high, and are probably overwrought for what could very likely be a niche product.
A few caveats first: I’ve long been an Apple fan boy, since my Mac Classic (and I am usually disgusted with Mister Softee products). Over the years, I’ve had some pretty good calls on Apple’s stock (none better than recommending it as a buy in 2003 at (pre-split) $15, with $13 cash). And I’ve enjoyed making forecasts (i.e., wild-ass guesses) about what their new products will be — despite a less than stellar record. How bad? Let’s just say I better stick to stocks and markets than trying to earn a living forecasting Apple product releases.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t have a little fun trying to suss out what Apple is up to. I expect it to be slick and cool and make me want to have one — but I am not sure if its something I need or even really want.
When iSteve takes the stage tomorrow, there are 5 questions I hope he will answer about the device:
• Is the iSlate a category killer, like the iPod?
Probably not. From reports, this sounds like its one part netbook, one part Kindle, one part iPod touch. A niche product between the MacBook and the iPhone.
When the first iPod arrived, it was a terrific usage of off the shelf components and unique Apple interface (plus ITMS) that made the entire process of managing, listening to and carrying around your music utterly seamless.
We will find out if the iSlate can accomplish nearly as much.
• Is the iSlate a game changer, like the iPhone?
When the iPhone first arrived, it totally upended the cellular phone market, wresting design control away from the carriers. A flurry of activity from handset manufacturers responded to the challenge, and the entire cellular phone industry was changed. Will the iSlate be as influential?
• Can the iSlate rescue the publishing industry?
While that is an interesting question, the short answer is “I doubt it.” Unless they can sell 20 million of these and build in a $50 annual fee to pay the NYT, WSJ, and various book publishers, etc.
• How does this position Apple versus its peers?
The company continues to innovate, take chances roll out new products. Whether this is a home run or a dud, it almost doesn’t matter — as long as they keep rolling out enough new products to keep gadget happy consumers coming back for more.
And it shows. Both consumers and investors have drunk the Kool-Aid. Consider Apple’s market cap — it is an astonishing $186.7 billion dollars — that’s bigger than:
Google $172B
Cisco $131.7B
HP $117.5B
Intel $110.4B
Verizon $85.7B
Amazon $51.7B
Research In Motion $34B
Dell $26.5BEven more amazing when you recall this was a company that many people had written off as dead a few short product cycles ago . . .
• What does this do to the competitive landscape?
Is this a broadside against the Amazon Kindle? (How much does that device gall Steve, I wonder?). Does this respond to any of Google’s recent initiatives? (and are they still “frenemies”?) Is the iSlate a response to cheap netbooks? An upscale iPhone that will get a foot int he door with Verizon? Is Apple, with its huge cash war chest, positioning this product in a niche market they think might grow over time, potentially replacing laptops? Is this an entertainment device, replacing DVD players and small TVs?
I don’t have much in the way of answers, only questions. We’ll find out tomorrow at Noon . . .
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January 26th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
Why is it that everybody is making such a big f$#!*$ deal about this product?
Is it that Apple is one of the only US companies that still produces something of ‘value’ – a tangible ‘product’?
Man, you’d think by watching the bobbleheads on CNBC – and other bloggers (ahem) that this company would’ve brought the QQQQ’s – or the whole friggin’ market back to life this afternoon.
Pathetic.
You trendmeisters.
Ipod
Iphone
Islate
Ishat
Ifish.
January 26th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
My guess it will blow away the netbook market. If nothing else it will be every one’s travel computer, phone, ipod, app game board, weighing nothing. Every one with a job will want one.
January 26th, 2010 at 9:48 pm
So I’ve been a skeptic on this one too. I typically note that Apple has not “invented” any product. Typically “inventing” is a poor business strategy… Google was not even an early search engine. Its best to “kill” an existing category — Google, iPod, iPhone, etc.
That said, I think you are understating the category that Kindle has already become. I have spent more on Kindle books than on iPhone apps (and I only have the Kindle “app” on my iPhone!). It is wondorous to me that I can order a book, even an obscure one (Tom Demark – Technical Analysis)… pay $39 and in 5mins its in my phone. Its a wonder to me and my eyes widen at the business model — 99.99% profit anyone?
Now what is the “iPad”? Its part color, large format Kindle. That alone is pretty powerful. Imagine the educational uses. Imagine how much better than Kindle that is? But then it also is just a big iPod touch. It surfs the web. It makes Wifi calls. It runs apps, games, video.
I hope they keep it “open” to things like the Kindle app… so that it kills the category on the device alone and Amazon can do great selling e-books. The e-book revolution is bigger than you think.
January 26th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
“Even more amazing when you tihnk this was a company thtamany people had written off as dead a few short product cycles ago . . .”
____________
Corrected: Even more amazing when you think this was a company that many people have repeatedly written off as dead at every opportunity since it was founded.
January 26th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
It’s funny how Jobs dismissed the Kindle on January 15, 2008 because “People don’t read anymore”.
Whatever. Beyond that, a well priced tablet PC will probably do well if it has 3G and a decent user interface. There have been lots of product announcements for this type of product running Android, but nothing seems to be shipping yet. So I would wager that Apple can sell a bunch if the pricing is reasonable.
January 26th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
Apple iSlate will be their last hurrah….although Apple is a the #1 innovator and player at the end of the day being just a consumer electronics player will not allow them to keep that HUGE valuation
1) competition from GOOG et al is becoming more intense and keener
2) Apple has no cloud offering ( yes i know they are purported to be launching one soon )
3) Apple has no enterprise play
4 ) Apple will not be able to command the higher margins by 2012 when wireless computing will be pervasive with 3G/4G and LTE
disclosure: Apple user since 1987 and is my primary computer although I also have a Motorola Droid ;)
January 26th, 2010 at 10:48 pm
forgot to say I’ll still be buying an iSlate ;)
January 26th, 2010 at 10:53 pm
Looks like a killer product. It might replace “notbook+notebook+ipod+dvd player + portable dvd player + portable gaming system” for some people. All in one.
January 26th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
first off, you are irreverent for making this post and you are an excellent communicator too.
that being said, i can’t believe you got the name wrong !
it’s the ijacksonpollock. otoh i saw the name suggested as the canvas due to the “logo” for the marketing/event.
i do believe it will create a new category.
no – i would not buy the stock at this price. i’d be doing a nassim taleb strategy “planning” on the real crash not being fall ’08, but in x number of months.
cheers
p.s. if you’ve never been to jackson’s site, try it now: http://jacksonpollock.org/
January 26th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
By the way, Microsoft’s market cap is $260B with $52B in current assets, while (as noted above), Apple has $187B market cap with $36B in current assets, while Google has $20B in current assets. Not that those numbers mean anything with regard to future performance, but DAMN that’s a lot of money.
January 26th, 2010 at 11:03 pm
Rumor is that its really targeted at the higher education ground, i.e. textbooks.
How successful will that work out? Well kindle definitely failed it, several pilots by universities found kindle’s note taking capability and other problems were not enough. Personally, I would always have a need when reading textbooks to flip pages around quickly & easily which is much better with a hardcopy.
January 26th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
@rustum
I hope you’re kidding. It’ll never replace half of those for reasons such as:
no text entry capability (goodbye to doing work on a laptop)
limited portability (yeah try carrying a 10in slate in your pocket while jogging)
no disc media readability (so much for all those dvd you purchased)
January 26th, 2010 at 11:07 pm
clarify … That’s a lot of money for companies that actually make something real. In light of multi-trillion dollar bailouts of Wall Street companies that don’t produce anything of tangible value, maybe it isn’t so impressive …
January 26th, 2010 at 11:26 pm
I haven’t been following the buzz/hype around AAPL’s release of the (sp-)iSlate, but, given its form-factor, allegedly, it, really, should have one of these projectors twirled into its feature-mix..
again, w/ its form-factor–allowing for battery-size–it should be able to do more than ‘receive’..
as an aside, its, allegedly, lack of an Optical Media player is, but, an implicit (sp-)iTunes subsidy..
and, watch for it, no P-/L-AN ‘connectivity’ for ‘daisy-chaining’ other/nearby ‘appliances’..
past that, they could have a contender–hopefully they’ll keep an eye cast toward the ‘Home Automation’-field–that thing could make for a great remote control, at the min..
January 26th, 2010 at 11:33 pm
I agree with the niche product hypothesis. Too big to carry around as a music player. Probably too limited or too small of a screen for a primary laptop. Probably too expensive to compete with netbooks. And eReaders suck anyway.
January 26th, 2010 at 11:36 pm
Considering most of their products seem focused on utility (with a premium added on for trendy) I assume this product is designed to fill a product gap. I think the team at apple has found a product gap that this new toy can solve. I hope that is the case. If not then Apple has gone beyond their function of bringing the right product to the right market. I wouldn’t bet against them that they’ve seen/envisioned something that the market hasn’t clued in on.
I still have yet to buy an Apple product since I am such an anti brand namer (yes, stocks are not the only place I buy value and am a contrarian ;) ). I buy utility and try to shun trendy for the overpriced hype that it is. So even though I’d buy Apple for the utility I don’t want to pay the premium that the crowd assigns to it. I’m getting closer to the smart phone every day but still don’t quite ‘need’ one. With my trading becoming more opportunistic and successful I may jump into one anyway just because it would pay for itself. I’m just not sure I’ll go with Apple
January 26th, 2010 at 11:44 pm
The mass sales will depend on the price tag. Actual iPhone prices goes from $100 to $300, the kindle is $260, the kindle dx at $489 is considered too expensive. At under $500 sales should be high unless the launch is a dissapointment like other tablets, and the expectations are very high this time for the iSlate.
For a product of that size, that won’t fit in most pockets, gaming performance, multi-functionality, new innovations, finger-friendly handling and 3D eye-candy visuals will have to seduce the tempted consumer.
An iSlate over $500 will have tough competition against real portable computers.
January 27th, 2010 at 1:46 am
I don’t want to 2nd guess the move, because I see the niche myself. The iPhone has revolutionized my data & communications world, and I fire up my computer less and less because this device does it all, and anywhere, whether lying in bed or sitting on the pot. I simply wish I had a little more screen size and easier typing. The tablet is in the right direction, but I see a smaller device yet (but larger than the current smart phones) as the sweet spot.
January 27th, 2010 at 2:28 am
“Every one with a job will want one.”
completely agree I would just add every one with a business will want one too.
Next time you go into the apple store they will ring you up with this, realtors, doctors, sales people, everyone will have one.
January 27th, 2010 at 3:22 am
I think Jobs is looking ahead 10 years. We didn’t have desktop PCs when I entered college (dates me, doesn’t it?) Then we did.
For a long time we didn’t have laptops. Now everyone in college carries one to class, the library, and the cafes. That heavy plastic MacBook was made for them: it gets put in and pulled out of a backpack a half-dozen times a day or more, pounded on hours a day in class and the library, for 4 years. It has to be tough and functional over that time the way most PC laptops are not.
Netbooks are here, and are very popular, based on the sales data. These things strike me as being rather jerry-rigged things that compromise on everything. But they’re still popular for a reason, though.
In 10 years, what will we have? I think Jobs is looking ahead and attempting to see it, and taking his best shot at defining it.
As other bloggers have noted, most of us have all the tech gadgets we need, there’s not really a gap to fill. The tablet probably isn’t aimed at us, necessarily, but at the kids, the college kids, the workers in the field (retail, medical, etc, and probably traders, too), and god-knows-what-else some app developer can dream up and code in the meantime.
January 27th, 2010 at 4:58 am
Barry,
It probably is a niche product, except that in this case there are a thousand niches: Student book reader / notebook, couch book reader / web surfer, patient chart and reference for doctors, gaming machine, restaurant /store order-taker, in-car entertainment device, industrial control device, etc.
As far as price, the comparison with iPhone or netbook is apples and oranges if the rumors are true that it is a multi-user device from the ground up: The value proposition is very different if just one can be shared by the entire household, at least initially.
It definitely could save the publishing industry, because it will add something that neither blogs nor MSM have (in addition to a pay model): Graphic and layout freedom. Currently newspaper sites running on commercial CMSs, blogs running on wordpress, and sites running on Joomla all are extremely constrained by a master template. Imagine getting the Sports Illustrated or Wired treatment, so each article is original in its presentation as well as its content.
January 27th, 2010 at 5:55 am
I think you forgot the most important question: will it blend?
January 27th, 2010 at 6:01 am
Are you reading ZeroHedge?
Some FED whisleblower email is in Darrell Issa’s posession. Intersting !!!
~~~
BR: I am in contact directly with Issa’s committee, as was noted here 48 hours ago. NYFed Emails About AIG Coverup Now Public
Their most recent report is posted at that link, and I spent some time on Bloomberg radio yesterday morning discussing the committee’s work with Josh Rosner, who covers banking and insurance.
We now return you to our prior discussion . . .
January 27th, 2010 at 6:21 am
Zero Hedge has become too busy, too many writers, its like panning for gold, looking for the good nuggets in the middle of all of this other junk. They look more and more like Seeking Alpha.
Sometimes, less is more
January 27th, 2010 at 6:44 am
Nothing that interesting in that Darrell Issa email. AIG was overlevered and unwound in the middle of the crisis. This is costly. But the NYFED is doing fine on MaidenLaneIII and the swap counterparties had offsetting exposures that they also unwound (at the same time).
The people reading this stuff as something dramatic do not understand the exposures, hedges, etc.
We all would like to re-negotiate our debts. Try asking your mortgage lender for a 20% haircut? This is just not the way bank counterparties tend to work. The bank would rather lose 50-60-70% in foreclosure than offer you a 20% haircut. Almost universally the case.
January 27th, 2010 at 7:08 am
just ’cause I like Apple doesn’t make me gay or anything-
right?
and that new tablet- the uber cool iSlate- I am going to buy one- just so I can read books- why hassle with turning pages- and even if I am just carrying it around- well you know that sends a message all by itself-
it defines me as hip, urban and cool- just like my Scan furniture
January 27th, 2010 at 7:10 am
Apple Tablet Portends Rewrite for Publishers
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703906204575027503731077976.html
Book publishers were locked in 11th-hour negotiations with Apple Inc. that could rewrite the industry’s revenue model after the technology giant unveils its highly anticipated tablet device Wednesday.
Apple’s new multimedia tablet device, with a 10-inch touch screen that is expected to deliver video, text, navigation and social-networking applications, is trying to change the way much of traditional media is delivered.
For the book industry, the Apple tablet is bringing to a head a brewing battle between Apple and industry heavyweight Amazon.com Inc. over how e-books—seen as the future of the book industry—will be priced and distributed.
Apple’s business model for books, which the company has kept under tight wraps, shifts the focus away from the bargain-basement prices Amazon has made popular, according to publishers that have met directly with the company. Apple is asking publishers to set two e-book price points for hardcover best sellers: $12.99 and $14.99, with fewer titles offered at $9.99. In setting their own e-book prices, publishers would avoid the threat of heavy discounting. Apple would take a 30% cut of the book price, with publishers receiving the remaining 70%.
January 27th, 2010 at 7:53 am
Apple is asking publishers to set two e-book price points for hardcover best sellers: $12.99 and $14.99, with fewer titles offered at $9.99.
This is what really steams me. What does it actually cost them to produce these things? Now that publishing costs for the paper at least have disappeared how much are they gouging consumers? Maybe you can do an article on how much we are being taken by these guys at this price Barry since you have some insight into the production process that goes into a book. I know some money has to go to the writers and editors to produce but after that what exactly is the value the publishing house producing here?
I’m wondering if, in the near future, tandem teams of writers and editors will work to undercut the big publishing houses to put books on the readers for a couple bucks and sell hundreds of millions of them?
January 27th, 2010 at 8:10 am
But why does it “steam” you? I dont have to shop. I dont have to wait (that saves me 1 hour to a few days). What is that worth?
For me, the experience of being able to access e-books in minutes is worth many times… “shopping for books” or even the better experience of “shipping books from amazon”.
Plus, dozens of books follow me on trains, planes, and even across multiple devices (Kindle, iPhone, laptop) and through time.
That’s a little better than a simple “book”. And it costs 50%! Wow.
January 27th, 2010 at 8:22 am
I’ll take the under. Price will be too high for what you get. People do not have excess cash for a specialty device. I don’t see any emotion, ohhhhhhhh, I really want that. I think most folks still really want a big screen, which, imho, will be it’s competition for that amount of dough.
Books, lol, I’m a huge book buyer, 90% used on amazon.
Probably just me, yet, IPHONE might be a perfect product.
For me though, I’ve become a low dollar shopper on almost all products, I’ve found if you shop shop shop, you can find what you want at a great price, imho, more and more are really doing this.
My guess also is there is no WOW factor here, and really solves no clear problem. Don’t forget laptops are getting cheaper and better at the same time.
January 27th, 2010 at 8:29 am
There’s a dopey video about this product this morning on The New York Times with the reporter interviewing people in Times Square.
Kind of accentuates my first post.
I think the media is more excited than the ‘rest of us’.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/video/2010/01/26/7524_1_appletablet_75x50.jpg
Ifish.
January 27th, 2010 at 8:40 am
the two questions I would have are
1. whats the battery life. Has to be at least a day to work as a e-reader. They don’t have a lot of electrical outlets at the beach.
2. whats the experience in reading for hours on a backlit display.
January 27th, 2010 at 9:16 am
torrie-amos says : ” Don’t forget laptops are getting cheaper and better at the same time. ”
totally agree, intense research is going on all over the planet, touch screen technology will become standard, laptop tablets one of many possible configurations,
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9070158/Hello_gorgeous_Meet_the_laptop_you_ll_use_in_2015
http://www.tuvie.com/category/laptop/
the prices will go down and U.S. PC vendors may disappear says Acer founder Stan Shih:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-10437359-17.html?tag=mncol;title
January 27th, 2010 at 10:04 am
Ca iSlate rescue the publishing industry?
Maybe they can help Newsday with LIRR commuters. Things can’t get much worse for them as the following headline shows:
After Three Months, Only 35 Subscriptions for Newsday’s Web Site
http://www.observer.com/2010/media/after-three-months-only-35-subscriptions-newsdays-web-site
January 27th, 2010 at 10:13 am
Yawn. Microsoft has proven (over the ten years that they have been doing tablet PC’s) that it will be a niche market. The reality is that tablet/slates are fine for certain things, but they will not replace any corporate PC’s on their own. Keyboards are too important as in input device. Kindle has already taken over the e-reader niche, and if books are more expensive on the iTablet, and you already have an iPhone, why would you bother? More iHype from Apple fanboys.
January 27th, 2010 at 11:04 am
Apple, I tip my hat to you!
It is quite impressive they managed to grab complete control of first the MP3 player market,
and then pull it off again with the smartphone. The iPhone is an amazing product.
And frankly, they have been training for years now to design this tiny iTablet think. Look how much can be packed into an iPhone or an MacBook Air or a video iPod. It is very impressive.
One thing I have noticed is that middle-aged-to-getting- close-to-retirement folk (such as my parents and my wife’s) are becoming more often Apple converts. (both phone wise and desktop/laptop)
And they literally all say the same thing! “I got sick of Windows, this just works.” And they freaking love it. It is like the damn Apple adverts!
For me personally, the iPhone was my first Mac, and yes, it is perhaps the perfect product.
Unless I become a poor poor man (which don’t get me wrong, I know nothing is certain in this economy) I will be hard pressed to change to something lesser. And the same goes for nearly every other iPhone user I know.
It is hard not to admit there is an air of magic to their products (even if priced at a premium).
How long this will last, is the big question.
I don’t think the Mrkt cap. is over-valued at this point. They are closing in on MSFT. It is incredible the amount of money
they are currently raking in.
http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/01/holiday-cheer-gives-apple-some-eye-popping-earnings.ars
Enjoy the Steve Jobs show today!
This is the stuff American enterprise is made of!
January 27th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
iPad Specifications
9.7 inch IPS display
0.5 inches thin
1.5 pounds
Full capacitive multi-touch interface
16-64GB of Flash memory storage
1 GHz Apple-branded A4 chip (developed in-house)
Bluetooth 2.1 + EDR
802.11n WiFi
Built-in Speaker
Built-in Microphone
Accelerometer & Compass
30-pin Dock connector (same as iPod and iPhone)
10-hours of battery life (Over one month standby time)
Runs all iPhone apps
App Store application included
January 27th, 2010 at 2:18 pm
Five Major Book Partners
* HarperCollins Publishers
* Hachette Book Group
* Penguin
* Macmillion
* Simon & Shuster
January 27th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
Shipping in 60 days with worldwide availability for Wi-Fi models. 3G models ship in 90 days.
Pricing:
Just Wi-Fi:
* 16GB – $499
* 32GB – $599
* 64GB – $699
With 3G radio:
* 16GB – $629
* 32GB – $729
* 64GB – $829