For several months, I had been getting increasingly curious about the fact that the St. Louis Fed’s FRED data and economic research service was no longer indicating a vertical “recession bar” from the period starting around mid-year 2009. Finally, today, curiousity got the best of me and I called my St. Louis Fed contact. This was his response (confirming what I’d already inferred):
Apparently the two staff economists that review the FRED charts believe July 2009 is the date they believe the NBER will announce as the end of the recession. From what I understand a similar “call” was made toward the end of the 1990-91 recession.
If I was to highlight one source they used it would be Jeremy Piger’s (University of Oregon), recession probabilities. He was a staff economist until about 4-5 years ago.
I’m not entirely sure I agree with their assessment, but do think it noteworthy that one of our Federal Reserve banks has apparently “called” a July 2009 end to the recession. I should have inquired on this point sooner, but life got in the way.
FWIW. Carry on.
Industrial Production Index (Series: INDPRO)
Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All Employees (Series: PAYEMS)
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.