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Dude, Where’s My Recession Bar?
Posted By Invictus On January 15, 2010 @ 1:15 pm In Economy,Federal Reserve | Comments Disabled
For several months, I had been getting increasingly curious about the fact that the St. Louis Fed’s FRED  data and economic research service was no longer indicating a vertical “recession bar” from the period starting around mid-year 2009. Finally, today, curiousity got the best of me and I called my St. Louis Fed contact. This was his response (confirming what I’d already inferred):
Apparently the two staff economists that review the FRED charts believe July 2009 is the date they believe the NBER will announce as the end of the recession. From what I understand a similar “call” was made toward the end of the 1990-91 recession.
If I was to highlight one source they used it would be Jeremy Piger’s (University of Oregon), recession probabilities . He was a staff economist until about 4-5 years ago.
I’m not entirely sure I agree with their assessment, but do think it noteworthy that one of our Federal Reserve banks has apparently “called” a July 2009 end to the recession. I should have inquired on this point sooner, but life got in the way.
FWIW. Carry on.
Industrial Production Index (Series: INDPRO )
Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All Employees (Series: PAYEMS )
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/dude-wheres-my-recession-bar/
URLs in this post:
 St. Louis Fed’s FRED: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
 recession probabilities: http://www.uoregon.edu/~jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm
 INDPRO: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO
 Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/INDPRO_Max_630_3781.png
 PAYEMS: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[id]=PAYEMS&s[range]=5yrs
 Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Payems-5-yr.png
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