Comments on: More Employment Charts

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Thu, 21 Jan 2010 20:24:45 +0000

[...] http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/employment-charts/ [...]

By: batmando

batmando — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 19:08:50 +0000

“Temp help is improving, and tends to be a good early indicator of more hiring to come”
so i have understood to be the case, but just wonderin’, is contract labor considered temp help?
just read earlier today (can’t recall where, too many blogs, so little time), that contract labor in Japan has risen during their lost decades to where it is now 30% of the labor force.
just sayin’, it could be different this time?

By: willid3

willid3 — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 23:59:40 +0000

a different view on unemployment?
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/alternative-unemployment-rate.html

By: James

James — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 22:14:11 +0000

What I find particularly intriguing is the “THE PERCENT OF THOSE UNEMPLOYED 27 WEEKS AND OVER IS NOW AT 40%” chart. Over the last half century there is a clear, indeed, strong uptrend in this statistic. Is this an artifact of the way in which the data is being gathered/reported, or are we to believe that we slowly becoming a nation of long-term unemployed?

By: ashpelham2

ashpelham2 — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 16:45:01 +0000

adbutler007: That’s just the thing that is most troubling. Of course, we know unemployment won’t bottom next month, but even if it did, there might not be a normal return of demand, as seen in previous job recoveries. Heck, for all intents and purposes, 2001′s jobless recovery was just a precursor to this one. Even returning to 2007′s employment picture is asking a lot, as retirements pick up, demand simply dries up. Can’t buy much on a fixed income. Little credit available right now to consumers or small business to spur demand. There is simply no way that we could return to 2007 employment in only 2 years, if even in 10 years. It’s a very bleak picture. It’s a generational change.

By: Greg0658

Greg0658 — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 16:29:50 +0000

the 2010 Predictions thread I started a post .. then/well forgotaboutit
the stock market of corporates will rise to the point of traders & mom&pops seeing this point as the last hurah before the boomers want the cash to buy real stuff with .. at which time a 2nd crash towards 667 will begin .. sucking the non-existant backed up #s from accounts so people need to work till death do them part from this world .. perpetuating the situation .. corporations or the real bag holders will reposses the manufacturing and take the industries private .. and won’t even say thank you for making them TBTFight

By: Steve Barry

Steve Barry — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 15:41:46 +0000

@adbutler,

Don’t forget that the chart will be quite WORSE looking in one month when the benchmark revision subtracts another 850K jobs.

By: adbutler007

adbutler007 — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 14:31:21 +0000

What is interesting about the final chart of unemployment in past recessions is the symmetry of the curve. The right half of the curve mimics the right half to an incredible degree. A quick observation of the data suggests that, if unemployment bottoms next month at current levels, it will be at least another two years before the labor market equalizes at 2007 levels. Of course, given the structural problems as a result of the credit deflation, fiscal and demographic issues, there is no guarantee that we will see unemployment bottom any time soon.

By: letitride2

letitride2 — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 07:09:55 +0000

There is little chance the fed can raise rates during deflation. If you trade bonds you will see how tenuous the few bids are these days and there is no rush of new government dealers. Stock prices have clearly been propped as have the many failed “TBTF” entities, many now government sponsored. We will have a massive decline and of course another rally but the trend has been down, for stock prices arguably since 1998 and bear markets average 15 years. The current condition will inevitably pass and from a duration perspective we have endured better than 2/3rds of the time required. However as Robert prechter pointed out long ago the price destruction has yet to really sink it’s teeth into our collective conscious. Those calling for higher rates to “defend the US Dollar” are forgetting 1989-present Japan and Paulson is betting the expansion in the monetary base will find its way into the monetary supply. During deflation that does not occur. Housing is still dead unless you want to fool yourself with comparisons to North Dakota, where prices didnt rise much or employment gain or consquently drop. We need to build ( our troops can make fine roads and replace the Stickel Bridge for starters ) and we can save taxation when people can least afford it by bringing those troops home, ex Afghanistan or Iraq if you must. we need to return to a preeminent manufacturing economy rather than the service economy which we can longer export. Education and family are our remaining assistants. Anything that aids the latter will help America return to excellence.

By: ALAN ABELSON

ALAN ABELSON — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 23:40:35 +0000

WE HESITATE TO OVERBURDEN you with mournful numbers on jobs, but we think Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Policy Research has some interesting stuff in his latest commentary. He notes that although the current data still show a 378,000 job gain for this century’s opening decade, that 378,000 is due to shrink by some 824,000 when the benchmark revision makes its appearance in January’s employment report. And while the current data also show a loss of 1.5 million private-sector slots in the decade, the benchmark revision will swell that figure to more than 2.4 million.

Dean expects employment to turn positive sometime next year. The catch is, he doubts it’ll be fast enough to make a real dent in the unemployment rate.

At the very least, it seems to us, the dreary digits in the jobs report and the problematic employment outlook make all that talk about the Fed raising rates and the like way too premature. In our jaundiced view, they also suggest that the prices and multiples built into equities by the riotous rally and fired by expectations of an economic surge are way too rich.