http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRaLpHoZA8E

So the question becomes: how can we better see the playing field in front of us?

One probably has to give up belief that these discontinuities can be predicted, or even perceived clearly enough to react quickly and timely.

What one can do, with effort and often consternation, is to bring to light insights into what these discontinuous changes or big, rapid changes might be, and prepare yourself. Creating a set of hypotheses that can be tested over time allows one to identify the signals that indicate a different future than where one currently has placed bets.

The conundrum, as Barry is highlighting in this uncertain environment, is that our deep-seated assumptions and beliefs color our lenses, one way or another.

Insight is gained by explicitly articulating our assumptions and beliefs. It will be these orthodoxies that will need to be challenged and tested, over time.

Intelligence is gained by using multiple lenses, multiple perspectives. While investors often look through innovation, business model, industry, economic and other lenses, in our attempt to be objective we often attempt to avoid or ignore the political perspectives, both small and big picture. (And as usually demonstrated, few of us are able to have a rational discussion uncluttered.)

Given that one’s politics are perhaps one’s own deepest held beliefs, our own orthodoxies about what works and what is right/wrong or is successful/failure are also our biggest blind spots. And the most emotional.

While someone else’s politics nearly always get on our nerves one way or another in a very under-the-skin way, today’s politics are of the discontinuous type, hence relevant for investors and personal and general well-being, if not financial survival – hence it is a useful exercise to articulate the political orthodoxies (and other types of orthodoxies), understand and challenge them (including articulating the counterpoint possibilities) in order to be prepared for the change; that is, prepared to act quickly because one has already thought of another outcome and has been watching for it, and is ready to act quickly, or at least quicker than others.

Whether Barry and this blog are up for such a venture is another question, as well as whether it is a good idea to do a deep dive in this way in this blog (or worthy of effort to document in a book), or avoid it on these pages.

It would not only be interesting, but also a way to systematically challenge and test the systemic orthodoxies in the big picture today.

a) Completely missed the psychological point of the post;
b) Made a straw man argument against Technical Analysis
c) Ignored the fact that a chart had nothing to do with MACD, and was only about Uncertainty;
d) Were generally arrogant and disrespectful.

I’d be happy to debate all manner of issues — TA, Fusion Analysis, Quant, Psychology —

However, people that engage in misleading rhetoric and discredited debate techniques should expect the crowd to disapprove (however inarticulately it was expressed).

BTW: Love your missive, Barry about ardent sports fans suffering from brain damage…. Only to be followed by your ardent blog fans calling me a retard.

Too damn funny. People actually had their blood pressure rise–and they took it personally(!)– because some “retarded” commenter–whom they don’t know–upset their heroic blogger, also whom they don’t know…in the course of a thread about partisanship and cognitive biases!!!! You can’t make this shit up.

It’s more fun playing a piano :)

Hey, look at that bear, it is going to eat me…….I’m hungry, let’s kill it!

I think the ability to tap into that and use it would be especially useful in politics. No offense here but I gotta think this is what Hitler was playing on

Sports would be another key area

that’s a good one- you obviously don’t know what a libertarian is- to start at the most basic level- here’s their website-

http://www.lp.org/

I guess it’s fun playing one though

I was so intrigued with the idea of the role cognitive biases play in decision-making (financial, business, or otherwise), that I chose to move away from Boston to pursue my MBA. Though I had been accepted at top-10 schools in Boston and NYC, I attended a school in Toronto that included Kahneman and Tversky in the prerequisite readings and I made sure to take advantage of the coursework that emphasized the sometimes uncomfortable task of self-examination. I had a particularly fun time in a course named “The Opposable Mind” (named after the professor’s recent book at the time), since watching some MBA candidates struggle with their massive egos was quite entertaining.

Also, I was glad to see Barry’s political views . Glad to see my libertarian views are shared by someone I respect. If only more disillusioned Americans were attracted to some (not all) of the values on which this country was founded, we could avoid an embarrassing descent into the abyss we are looking into, which the current partisan/ideological environment seems incapable of acknowledging.

I am sure someone will find something in this comment to trash on; I have prepared by reframing the potential insults as “disconfirming evidence” to my perception of reality…so trash away, you will only be helping me!

Shhhhh. Someone’s gotta do the other side of the trade, dude.