Comments on: Guide to 2010 Outlooks

By: January 7, 2010 – Greg's Blog

January 7, 2010 – Greg's Blog — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 15:18:44 +0000

[...] From the Big Picture – The Ultimate Guide to 2010 Outlooks. [...]

By: The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Open Thread: What Will 2010 Bring?

The Big Picture » Blog Archive » Open Thread: What Will 2010 Bring? — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 00:53:36 +0000

[...] was suggested in today’s Guide to the 2010 Outlooks post that a survey of readers might be both fun and [...]

By: John Clarke

John Clarke — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 00:35:39 +0000

I’ll take a shot at a prediction… If you’re ‘trader’ or ‘speculator’ (And Nimble) it’ll be a good year. If you’re a buy and hold type of individual, it will not.
I think Peter Boockvars’ post above ‘The Fed and where stocks go from here’ addresses one of the key issues for the U.S. economy… Does the Fed continue its purchase of MBS?? In light of the Feds ‘Mission Statement’ it obviously will depend upon the unemployment rate, inlflation trends, but probably most importantly stability of the housing market– (looking at it from the Feds perspective I think the unemployment rate remains unacceptabley high). Has the purchase of MBS by the Fed been a Key Factor in helping the economy from both the unemployment situation and the Housing Market perspective– I think maybe it has.
The bond market looks to be pricing in and end to the Feds program with interest rates (and the dollar) moving higher.
If the Fed can justify its purchases of MBS, with the unemployment rate where it is, it may extend the program in some form or another.
In which case the dollar resumes its downtrend and commodity prices, especiallly energy, resume their (inlationary) uptrends– especially in light of the colder than average weather across most of the U.S.
I think some of their decision making will be linked to how the Chinese policy/economy performs (i.e. yuan appreciation/depreciation).
Also, its an election year– which creates more uncertainty for an overbought stock market.
In my view, no matter what the Fed does, we’re going to get that ‘Correction’ in these overly bought stock markets this year — whether it’s due to higher interest rates or whether it’s due to higher food and energy prices…

By: call me ahab

call me ahab — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 21:04:28 +0000

quick prediction before the open thread- Tiger Woods goes thug- blames the "white man" for keeping him down- lol Tiger Woods- Vanity Fair

By: Kent @ The Financial Philosopher

Kent @ The Financial Philosopher — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 20:26:39 +0000

Can The Pragmatic Capitalist actually call itself pragmatic and publish a list so large? Certainly the compiled list saves one time in finding the lists themselves but the pragmatism, in terms of usefulness, is arguably diminished by the increase in information and range of opinions. At the end of the reading, which I did not do, one is likely to confirm their own biases anyway.

This list is quite the paradox and microcosm of the information overload that will only compound in this new decade.

More information = bounded rationality = decrease in ability to make prudent decisions = the antithesis of pragmatism.

For entertainment purposes and for the sake of curiosity, however, this list might be interesting. Thanks for publishing it Barry…

By: Steve Barry

Steve Barry — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 20:18:23 +0000

BR:

I don’t get it…you post a list of 50 outlooks…promise a rocking open thread for predictions…then tell me of the folly of forecasting?? Are you secretly snickering at all these predictions?

By: Charles Maley

Charles Maley — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 20:05:06 +0000

Richard Dennis, a commodity trader known as the “Prince of the Pit” once said: “Too many traders – too many people in all walks of life – keep asking, ‘What do you think of this?’ ‘What’s going to happen next?’ They have to get away from that herd mentality.”

Bill Dunn, another commodity trader, said “Why do people think they’re smarter than the market long-term? What gives them that confidence? I guess people feel dumb if they can’t predict what the market is going to do in the short term. They’re too proud to admit they don’t know what to do when they’re wrong. They don’t have the capacity to understand the digits that are scrolling by on the bottom of the television. I don’t. It’s too much noise. That’s why we rely on our system.”

What’s The Difference between Winning and Losing Traders? Smarts and Strategy. The Right System Changes Everything!

By: eren

eren — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:28:11 +0000

BNN speaks to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates.

What’s ahead for the North American economy in 2010? Will the U.S. dollar slump even more? Will there be job growth? Will Canada’s housing market overheat?

http://watch.bnn.ca/clip229744#clip252659

By: MorticiaA

MorticiaA — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:10:38 +0000

This looks like great stuff, Barry. Thanks to Pragmatic Capitalist for the permission to share. I’ll bookmark their site as a favorite for being so.. well.. pragmatic.

Unfortunately, all the links I attempted are blocked for me here at the office… Big Brother doesn’t want me educating myself on His dollar. Interesting story: TBP was okay at work when I first discovered it; then, Barry printed some unflattering remarks about my company’s management (he named names), then POOF, TBP was blocked the next day here at the office. Not sure what happened (except the stories died down, as well as the commentary), but now TBP is back to being “safe.” Funny how that works.

By: Steve Barry

Steve Barry — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:04:24 +0000

Barry:

Please provide some framework for predictions..eg: S&P Target, 10 year rate, Fed Funds rate, Oil, gold…then readers can add some surprises of their own. This will cut down on the chaos, allow easier comparisons and will get better participation IMO.

~~~

BR: Let me save you some time:

The Folly of Forecasting
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10226887/apprenticed-investor-the-folly-of-forecasting.html