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Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010
Steve Matthews
Bloomberg, Jan. 4 2010
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arP4t5OQfEGY&
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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January 4th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
. . . right . . .so where are we now?
not a recessesion? not a depression?
January 4th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
Gee thx for speaking what ‘informed people’ already know. How much do you get paid Krugman ?
Once the the obscene amount of gubmit spending and printing of dollars diminishes without enough generation of ‘extend and pretend’ ponzi schemes and bubbles look out…..here comes double dip recession to expose America’s dysfunctional economy!
January 4th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
30-40%?
Krugman’s is a hedged statement if there ever was one. Ahab has it right. The real chance is 99% (as when a weatherman predicts a 30% chance of rain when it’s already raining). Here’s why:
Employment/income
Bail outs targeted at top of food chain (the wrongest solution among many wrong solutions)
Not nearly enough cash (or money) to settle debt (all cash, everywhere, against all debt, everywhere) = systemic bankruptcy
Policies directed toward credit extension/debt growth (no one wants either)
No fundamental changes to the institutions, persons, regulations, or policies that got us here in the first place
Fraudulent GAAP/mark to fantasy asset values/fraudulent GDP and employment numbers
No resolution of old trash while we add new trash to the pile — everything is still tainted by fraudulent ‘financial products’ created years ago
I could go on, but its boring.
January 4th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Wien’s out with his ten picks for 2010!
15%+ gain for the SP500 for the first half and then down she goes.
SP500 ends where it began at the end of 2010.
Load em up now for the ride if weren’t in it…and buys those long puts in May.
I {ice} fish.
Byron!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60347820100104
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/blackstone-groups-byron-wien-announces-top-ten-surprises-for-2010,1105254.shtml
January 4th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
And gee, Paul, which way does the earth turn into sun to provide us with heat and light?
While you’re at it, from your Oracular perch, was it a lone gunman or did the Mafia order the Kennedy boys hit?
Who was Jack the Ripper?
Does Pamela Anderson have implants?
Was also wondering if the Steelers are going to win the Superbowl again this year?
When you have time…….
January 4th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
You too can be 60% off and win a Nobel in economics.
99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
00.00000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of prolongment should there be some miracle invention in energy and or batteries that they can blow into another tech or housing bubble.
January 4th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
Why does Krugman get so much press? Because of his uncanny economic forecasting ability? Or because he’s the King of Keynesianism – the flavor of political ideology the MSM and the left loves to hear?
January 4th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
This assumes, of course, that the NBER eventually determines we’re out of the first one. Personally, I’m not so sure.
January 4th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
All of you guys seem to be missing the point — he is lobbying for more stimulus money . . .
January 5th, 2010 at 5:45 am
So let’s humor the academic and say there is a second “stimulus” bill.
a) how big will it be,
b) where will the money be targeted,
c) explain to me how it will create self-sustaining economic growth, and
d) how it won’t swamp the credit markets with an over-supply of Treasury paper, resulting in higher interest rates,
now that the Fed is done with QE to keep rates low.
As to why Krugman receives so much press: Because he writes for the NY Times. That’s it.