Roll over the circles for each industry below to compare 2008 employment levels with those projected for 2018. The largest circles represent major employment sectors.
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click for interactive graphic
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Credit: Nelson Hsu and Robert Benincasa/NPR
(Employment numbers are in thousands.)
Every day I get up and look through the Forbes list of the richest people in America. If I'm not there, I go to work. ~Robert Orben
According to the CFTC weekly data for the week ended Tuesday, net shorts in the euro fell by 38% from last week's record high and are now at a 6 week low. Net shorts in the pound moved up a touch to just shy of its record high. Net longs in the Australian$ rose to the most since May '08 and net longs in the Canadian$ rose to the highest since Nov '07. Gold new longs fell to a 4 week low. Net longs in crude rose 14% and are just 12k contracts from a record high dating back to...
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January 17th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
Not sure where they got the idea that computer systems design and related services is going to have a 45% growth in employment. Maybe it would have 10 years ago, but now, not a chance! Ig any thing I wouldn’t have been surprised that there wouldn’t have been a 45% decline. Most of that work has been exported in the last decade. never to return
January 17th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
and I sort of wonder how the growth they expect (10.5%) will relate to growth in population. seems like we are already out of balance there so I am guessing it will get worse
January 17th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
and i suspect the software publishing industry will also shrink along with the rest of the computer related technology sectors. so that 30% and 45% increases are really dubious!
January 17th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
These are very scary numbers. Their production and growth projections are terrible (except for a few sectors, yet I wouldn’t say that those are dynamic either). This country must make a dramatic turnaround if we are going to emerge strong in the future. And we must really excel to overcome our demographic barrier (we are an aging population). We need radical change don’t we? Well, to have radical change we need to enter into radical discipline: thinking and doing differently, beyond what present reality suggests (and our present reality in leadership and government is all about immorality, irresponsibility, incompetence, corruption, unaccountability, special interests, greed, power, re-election, etc. etc. ad infinitum).
We need to rid ourselves of the main virus… The Federal Reserve and central banking system (their interference with interest rates and prices, fractionalized reserve lending and manipulation of the money supply is the source of most all of our economic crisises and woes). END THE FED!
And we need to oust a Congress of effete, corrupt, bought and paid for hacks and career politicians who are more concerned with campaign contributions and re-election than what is good for the American people.
And we need to blow this whole lobbying system out of the water and stop the strong hidden influences of special interests on our government representatives (banking, big pharma, education, unions, to name a few).
We need real effective change (not Obama change: politics as usual). Our nation is like a ship at sea, a sitting duck, and the enemy has already launched its devastating torpedos and they are heading right towards us. No time for complacency, no time for “standard policies” or status quo… radical change NOW or we will be sleeping with the fishes.
I think this is a powerful thing to do. It will have huge impact if many buy red stampers and start doing this. The continuation of a growing, popular, peaceful revolt. Let’s advertise our frustration, disgust and demand for positive change and reform to the government and the whole US population. US dollars… what a great marketing vehicle to get the message out. It will assist in getting other Americans educated and aware of what is going on (“Hey Joe, look at this… what is this ‘End the Fed’ all about?”).
Read the suggestion in the two blogs below. Spread it around.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/audit-fed-and-got-gold-stamp-messages.html
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/bernanke-makes-like-squid-sprays-clouds.html
January 17th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
Obama says 4 million jobs in 2010…unlikely
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/1/16/825873/-Obama-says-4-million-jobs-in-2010…unlikely
Look at the split in the How many fulltime jobs will be created in 2010 poll between Obama kool aide drinkers @ 23% and more grounded people that say 50% of new jobs will be contingent workers ( currently make up nearly a third of the workforce) @ 25% .
January 17th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
I guess we should all become consultants.
Manufacturing employment declines may be even greater than shown. According to a solar panel mfgr on TV last week, China’s wages are still 1/10th of the USA. Further productivity improvements will continue to march on.
The 18% increase in construction jobs over 2008 levels seems high. That will only happen if immigration picks up dramatically I suspect.
January 17th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
the usefulness of such chart is always limited, since there’s no way to predict employment trends 10 years in the future. a significant development in just one industry likely to affect trends in several other industries.
even so, this chart seems particularly “hokey”:
1. construction UP 18%, while mining DOWN 14%? the only way it can happen is if Fed keeps 0% rates for next 8 years and single-family construction explodes (again) and there will be eight more $787B “stimulus” packages (annual stimulus) to build roads to nowhere?
2. clothing and gen. merchandise – UP 11%??? I thought we’ll be shopping online more, not in retail? looks like BLS says AMZN and UPS are two “screaming shorts?”
3. Fed .Government UP (only) 9%?? No, this is the change i cannot believe in. it’s gonna be up much more than that, even without counting employees of Fanne, Freddie, and other wards of state.
4. Financial, Banking overall up 6.8% – is that from a low base at the end of 2008? That’s not much of a growth considering overall 105% projected for all industries. I guess in 2018 people won’t have that much free $$ for the banksters to steal (sorry, i meant to say “manage and invest”), so other than speculating on oil futures, C, AIG, penny stocks, CDS, etc, the fin. sector employment growth will be capped.
January 17th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
The chart is likely based on the last ten years and they just projected it out as though the trends would remain the same for the most part. Given the unsustainable trade deficits we have been running, I don’t see the manufacturing sector getting walloped as badly as they think. Also, I think if health costs are brought under control (because we have no choice, not because we have the will) that will be less rosy than they show. Education and social services growing like gangbusters with state budgets being decimated? Hmmm.
January 17th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
Doc, if they did that they must not be able to read trends very well!
January 17th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
bsneath Says: January 17th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
I guess we should all become consultants.
I’ve been one for past 15 yrs working with software startups. Not easy to keep 100% steady employment but if you get grooved and hit a score then it more than makes up for it
January 17th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
To file under the category “Folly of Forecasting”
Next?
January 17th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
To willid3:
The first domestic servant robots will need a far flung coterie of maintenance people to keep them up and running (like cars do). They will need programmers to make sure they can deal with idiosyncrasies in their local environments, not covered by out of the box AI.
Another group of tech savvy folks can write “ipod” apps for robotic platforms.
So no, tech jobs aren’t dead until the Singularity.
January 17th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
Let’s see, they predict that total employment will be 153.8 million by 2018. I believe that is the total workforce today (if you included those who mysteriously dropped out). So in order to create enough jobs for today’s workforce everyone aged 8 to 16 and all legal immigrants entering the United States for the next 8 years must put off looking for work until 2018. What a plan!
January 17th, 2010 at 5:37 pm
“domestic servant robots” – you can’t be fckn serious!
January 17th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
paul jones so that what they were talking about when they kept telling us new jobs were coming!
must still be hung up in development. though i hear Honda is working hard on the project!
January 17th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
mobiaxis,
yes, no doubt, though, before the “domestic servant robots”, there will be a, somewhat, similiar demand for such occupations–required to roll out the 24×7=168. Track n’ Trace ‘Economy’..
see: Houston Police Department UAV
http://cryptogon.com/?p=12968
as one facet of the coming festivities..
January 17th, 2010 at 11:15 pm
Like most 10-year forecasts, good for a laugh 10 years from now.
January 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am
The one thing we know for sure, is that these forecasts will be wrong.
January 18th, 2010 at 12:09 am
Employment services going up 19.2 % when overall employment will go up 10.5 %? Healthcare up 22.5%, as if it is not bankrupting the country at present levels already? Banking up 7.9%? I guess it is possible, if the gaming industry will be officially included in the sector! And on, and on.
January 18th, 2010 at 1:53 am
Won’t this be funny to laugh at in ten years!
January 18th, 2010 at 8:36 am
Unfortunately, the methodology for this is based on the past. They do not attempt to account for the up and downs in the economy. I worked with an economist, who knew the methodology and did not think either the national or the statewide projections were worth much.
January 18th, 2010 at 9:50 am
If that is the way our economy will look in ten years, God help us. But then that won’t be the way it looks. Whoever put that together simply used linear extrapolation on their $2.99 Walmart calculator. If we don’t realize by now (With all of Wall Street’s similar extrapolations) that the world is a tad more complex than that……….
Keep that graphic and let’s look back in ten years to see how accurate they were. Not very.
January 18th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
Once you put in a government healthcare option, or an exchange, or a “whatever”, you free the employee from the Company. So many people work today just for healthcare—and they work hard to keep their jobs, and healthcare. As the link between company and healthcare goes away, you will have more people floating around, in and out of the workforce. People, a Gen X, Gen Y, Millenium Gen, whatver Gen—as time passes, less reliance on the Company. More reliance on a social safety net.
Good, or bad, not sure. Check back in 30 years.
February 3rd, 2010 at 3:19 am
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