Traffic Trends of North American Rail Freight
By Barry Ritholtz - January 13th, 2010, 11:30AM
Rail traffic is now in its regular, post holiday, seasonal decline.
There will be an uptick in Q2 and Q3. Investors and traders should recognize that as an ordinary seasonal improvement. What will matter is whether the seasonal gains contain an above trend improvement from prior years — or if they are a substandard seasonal increase.
Traffic Trends of North American Rail Freight Traffic 2005 – 2009
click for ginormous chart
Chart courtesy of Railfax: Year End Summary, ASI/Transmatch
Hat tip Bill King
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January 13th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
The number of railcar loadings are the lowest level in 5 years and there’s “nothing to see here”? HMMMMM
January 13th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
Beating ’09 will be a low hurdle. The real question is where ’10 stabilizes. We probably aren’t going to see 400+k again for a good long while–that was the economy on debt steriods. But will 375k be the ‘new normal’–or is it 350k-ish?
January 13th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Barry: Like this chart! Would love to see it on a regular basis!
January 13th, 2010 at 7:44 pm
It’d be interesting to see this chart depicting several decades, so we can see how things looked in the 70′s during that fun filled time we all had (though I was just a kid through the ’79 oil fiasco).
I’d also be curious to know if the cargo is simply being transported by truck rather than rail, or if it’s a systemic drop in cargo overall.