ADP employment report/less bad trend continues
ADP said the private sector shed 22k jobs in Jan, 8k less than expected and follows a decline of 61k in Dec which was revised from -84k. The less bad theme continues as it’s the smallest decline since jobs were added back in Jan ’08. The entire decline though was in the goods producing sector as the services providing sector added a net 38k jobs with small and medium sized businesses adding workers. Large service providing co’s (those with more than 500 employees) had a net change of zero. Construction shed 37k jobs and the total lost in this group from the Jan ’07 high is now 1.8mm. The financial services area lost 16k jobs. Friday’s Payroll expectation is for +10k which does include the public sector. Now that we’ve gotten back to the point where the economy is basically no longer shedding jobs, the question still is open to how soon jobs will be added that will be enough to lower the unemployment rate.
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February 3rd, 2010 at 9:48 am
During the 90′s we lost a significant number of manufacturing jobs, which continues today, whether because of off-shoring or automation. The late 90′s brought us the dot-com boom and bust. The ’00s brought us the real estate and the finance of real estate boom and bust. The consumer economy is deleveraging and saving while the banks have found religion again regarding lending standards.
What area, what sector will the massive number of jobs come from that will be required to reemploy the nearly 17% of the US population that needs a job? I have yet to hear a detailed description nor have I found the road-map that speaks to the granularity of this question. I am all ears.
February 3rd, 2010 at 12:30 pm
The math certainly doesn’t work out, does it? The only hope for significant unemployment resolution is large numbers of boomers retiring in the short term, something that seems unlikely, or something unforeseen. We aren’t losing population in this country.
February 3rd, 2010 at 4:29 pm
[...] in January, the smallest decline since February 2008. “The less-bad theme continues,” says Miller Tabak equity strategist Peter [...]